Chance on voting day – random factors could swing the election

+ flip-flopping politicians – such a bad thing? US Edition - Today's top story: Policy, shmolicy: Election Day weather and football victories could decide the election [View in browser]( US Edition | 29 August 2024 [The Conversation] [The Conversation]( Sometime around 2016, I stopped making predictions about politics – who was going to win or lose, who would endorse this or that. That year was the year Donald Trump became the unlikeliest of GOP nominees, and then the unlikeliest of presidents. Who could have predicted that? Since then, so many of the ideas and concepts I had long held about politics have been contradicted, overturned or succeeded by something I could never have imagined, including the events of Jan. 6, 2021. So as you can imagine, I don’t like politics stories that speculate about what might happen. As if we know! But a story on the factors that could influence an election, which doesn’t predict the outcome? I’m all for it, which is why I was delighted when Washington University scholar Mark Robert Rank pitched a story that we ultimately headlined “[Policy, shmolicy: Election Day weather and football victories could decide the election](.” “Any number of last-minute factors might earn votes for one candidate or the other,” writes Rank. “Late-breaking economic news, international conflicts, personal gaffes or revelations – all may be enough to tilt the election.” But research has shown, writes Rank, that “there are also factors that have absolutely nothing to do with the candidates themselves or national and international conditions, but can affect a close election. These are what you might call the random factors.” Rank should know: He recently published a book, “The Random Factor.” And the lessons he learned led him to conclude that the “Trump campaign should be praying for bad weather along with hoping the Big Ten football teams in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania suffer devastating loses on Saturday, Nov. 2, while the Harris campaign should be rooting for clear skies and triumphant Big Ten victories come Election Day.” Also in this week’s politics news: - [Voters of color, Latinos show solidarity when voting]( - [Why the 14th amendment prevents states from subverting popular vote in presidential elections]( - [Redefining masculinity at the DNC]( Naomi Schalit Senior Editor, Politics + Democracy Bad weather, including rain or snow, tends to suppress voter turnout. Gregory Adams/Moment/Getty Images [Policy, shmolicy: Election Day weather and football victories could decide the election]( Mark Robert Rank, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis For all the energy, creativity and money presidential candidates pour into their campaigns, it turns out that the ‘subtle power of irrelevant events’ can also shift an election’s outcome. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are far from the first politicians to be accused of flip-flopping on issues. Francesco Zerilli/Zerillimedia/Science Photo Library [All politicians change their minds – and have been flip-flopping on positions for hundreds of years]( Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are far from the first politicians to change their mind about topics, from the innocuous to important policy shifts. Vertical signs with key messages are a long-standing tradition at Democratic conventions. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images [‘Coconut farmers for Harris,’ influencers and vertical signs – Smithsonian curators’ encounters at the Democratic National Convention]( Claire Jerry, Smithsonian Institution; Lisa Kathleen Graddy, Smithsonian Institution The items people wear, buy and wave at the convention are key pieces of American history. [Why people stay after local economies collapse − a story of home among the ghosts of shuttered steel mills]( Amanda McMillan Lequieu, Drexel University When southeast Chicago’s steel industry collapsed, the loss reverberated through neighborhoods built around the mills. Former mill workers explain why they stayed as the local economy fell. [An unseen problem with the Electoral College – it tells bad guys where to target their efforts]( Barry C. Burden, University of Wisconsin-Madison The Electoral College system puts most of the attention on just a few states – and paints a target on those states’ voting systems. [From Kursk to Kursk: Putin’s attempt to project an image as Russia’s ‘protector’ has been punctured throughout his 25 years in power]( Lena Surzhko Harned, Penn State From terrorist attacks to submarine disasters, Russia’s longtime leader has shown to be vulnerable in the face of crises. [No, the world isn’t heading toward a new Cold War – it’s closer to the grinding world order collapse of the 1930s]( David Ekbladh, Tufts University Over the past 15 years, the world has seen a financial crisis, the rise of populist politics and a fracturing of the world economic order. Sounds all a bit pre-WWII, right? - [South Sudan’s long-delayed election will be a landmark moment − but economic decline and political strife put vote at risk]( Abigail Kabandula, University of Denver The world’s youngest nation set a date for its first post-independence elections as intense anticipation reflects both an urgent need for stability and the high stakes involved. - [In a new era of campus upheaval, the 1970 Kent State shootings show the danger of deploying troops to crush legal protests]( Brian VanDeMark, United States Naval Academy The author of a new book about the 1970 shootings at Kent State University explains why using armed troops to respond to protests is a risky strategy. - [Signs, props and light-up wristbands − the 2024 political conventions find a home in the Smithsonian collections]( Jon Grinspan, Smithsonian Institution; Claire Jerry, Smithsonian Institution; Lisa Kathleen Graddy, Smithsonian Institution The Whigs started holding political conventions in the 1830s − and historians from the Smithsonian who visited the GOP and Democratic conventions this year found the tradition is still very vibrant. - [In domestic violence cases, police are more likely to make arrests when pets are abused, too]( Lynn Addington, American University Victims of intimate partner violence regularly cite fear for the safety of their pet as a primary reason they do not leave an abusive situation. - [Democratic men are stepping up for a woman president by stepping back, at last]( - [How the 14th Amendment prevents state legislatures from subverting popular presidential elections]( - [Black voters, Latino voters and other voters of color show solidarity at the ballot box]( - [How US military planning has shifted away from fighting terrorism to readying for tensions and conflict with China and Russia]( - - More of The Conversation Like this newsletter? 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