Postcards: Breakfast With Amelia, Working on Sunday, and Why Elevators are Better Than Radios (Five Things)

A cloudy day and editorial revisions have me writing through the evening. Plus, Day Two of the Innovation Tournament creates a big 14-seed upset over a popular medium. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Breakfast With Amelia, Working on Sunday, and Why Elevators are Better Than Radios (Five Things)]( A cloudy day and editorial revisions have me writing through the evening. Plus, Day Two of the Innovation Tournament creates a big 14-seed upset over a popular medium. [Garrett {NAME}]( Mar 10   [READ IN APP](   [To Skip to the Innovation Tournament Results for March 10, click here.]( Dear Fellow Expat: I have a complete report rewrite to do today and tomorrow, so I’ll be brief today. This morning, my wife planned our trip to Italy for her 40th Birthday. They’re apparently sending me the tab. At least I was able to get some breakfast before she and her friend sent me everything. Amelia wanted a Chocolate Chip Pancake - and I ate an Irish Hash Omelet. Five stars. Now, she’s forcing me to take a break so that she can go swimming. I'll watch it today. I’m physically tired from playing tag. I rarely sleep more than six hours straight. Last night, I only woke up once over seven hours (including the lost hour from daylight savings). I didn’t “save” any time, thank you. I’m very behind. Did you save time? [WHO SAVED TIME?]( Can someone tell me? What is the point of this… Just a reminder: The cows don’t care what time it is. Neither do dogs. And neither do six-year-olds who wake up right when the light hits the sky. This stupid event each year takes me a few days of recovery. It feels like 3:30 pm. It’s 4:30 pm. This is madness… ([Note to self: create worst innovations tournament.]( A few things before we hit this Lagoon-style, above-ground pool. [Upgrade to paid]( No. 1 - All That Glitters A friend asked me on Friday if I’d take one Bitcoin today or 31 ounces of gold. That’s a tough one. Both gold and Bitcoin will struggle during any liquidity event. Need proof? Look at Gold prices in October 2022 and October 2023. Then look at where gold was in March 2009 before the Fed started dropping money out of the sky. I read yesterday that Bitcoin has hit “fair value” at around $70,000. I have zero idea how people quantify “fair value” for something that could disappear tomorrow via government fiat or an electrical blackout. But… I took Bitcoin in the question. The reason: If global liquidity is set to expand at a breakneck pace, then I would foresee more irrational behavior around BTC to the upside than Gold. In addition, recall that gold is countercyclical. So, that means we could see more production if gold prices rise because higher prices incentivize more gold. That said, Bitcoin is finite. In 2025, I’m more bullish on gold, and if the BTC to GOLD ratio hits 50, then I’m going with Gold. Our time in the last decade has shown how utterly tragic that fiat currency is. It’s not even listed as one of the world’s [best innovations for our tournament this month](. More on that in a moment. I am officially underweight on my assets - at just 4% gold. I plan to bring that up to 5% later this week - even in the face of a rally. I’m willing to pay up to $2,200 an ounce - and $25 an ounce on silver for the long haul. I don’t think it’s logical to ever be above 5% in net worth over gold. On BTC/ETH, I’m also at 4%. That’s enough exposure for me… Especially on a volatile asset. I hope it just keeps rallying into 2025-26, because we’ll see a reversal like after previous huge rallies. I know plenty of people with over 10% Bitcoin as a percent of their total assets. They are braver than me. [Upgrade to paid]( No. 2. Valuation Insanity Last week, I discussed how insane it is that one Bitcoin is now worth more than a house and five acres of land in Upstate New York. But let’s not forget that NVIDIA’s (NVDA) valuation as a semiconductor company is mathematically jarring. NVIDIA is now larger in market capitalization than Saudi Aramco. One company has the largest oil reserves in the world, maintains billions in midstream and downstream assets, and powers the modern transportation system. The other makes semiconductors, and it almost lost to Soap in the innovation tournament but didn’t because the competition was rigged. Maybe my friend should have asked if I wanted to own NVIDIA or all these companies with great capital efficiency and strong brands: Nike, Diageo, UPS, Shell, McDonald’s, Nestle, Costco, and more. Syz Group, Quartr If we made an ETF of those ten stocks on the right, I’d buy and hold it forever. What a weird time to be an investor. No. 3 - Should We Be Worried NVIDIA stock collapsed by 10% during an intraday swing on Friday. Shares were running toward $1,000 (as I expected) but suddenly reversed from about $974 to $875. This selloff comes when capital is gushing out of tech stocks. We’ve never had a significant selloff when our technology sector and SPY signals were positive. Both must be negative - signaling a broader market selloff and not capital rotation. Right now, the S&P 500 signal remains strong. Syz Group, Bank of America [All four-momentum oscillators for the S&P 500 ETF]( (SPY) are positive. [You can learn about all four right here](. [Upgrade to paid]( No. 4: Innovation Tournament Leads to Shocker [It was a shocking Saturday in the Republic Invention/Innovation Tournament](. Now, we’re on to Day 2, where the 3s play 14s and the 4s play 13s in seeding. On Sunday, the upsets continued in a battle between No. 3 Seed “The Radio” and No. 14. Seed “The Elevator.” [The elevator won easily.]( You be honest with yourself. Can you make it the next 24 months without radio? 100 percent. Can you make it to next month without elevators? And don’t start with that “I’m taking the stairs… that allowed me to have that extra piece of cake.” This isn’t about “those people.” You’re going elevator. Even if there’s a fire in the building, you’re STILL considering the elevator. You’re not checking the radio to determine when the “water” is showing up. Radio was great for… putting your ear up to. Elevators are why we have urban, 21st-century architecture. If you’re in a city right now, looking at new places to live, there’s no “Does this building have a radio box to check?” There’s an elevator box for a reason. No one wants to climb more than two flights of stairs. [For more of Sunday’s recap… including a near upset by The Zipper, go here.]( Finally, No. 5: Two Charts That Stink! Last week, I explained that we borrow $2.50 to create every $1.00 in economic growth we’ve established. And leaders in the government and media have the guts to say that this is a robust and healthy economy. These people can’t be helped. Two important charts. Here’s how many awesome jobs we’ve created since February 2023. The bulk of the full-time jobs created (52,000 last month) were government jobs. As we know, the government doesn’t produce anything. This is an Uber Eats jobs market - with the bulk of new jobs created… going to foreign-born labor since 2021. Americans rely on part-time jobs to stay afloat, and full-time positions have dropped by 284,000 in a year. Syz Group, Zerohedge So, what’s the government’s solution - as laid out in the State of the Union Address? Spend more money and tax more. But we can’t even tax our way into Social Security solvancy, let alone the hole that the Uniparty has dug over the last 25 years. Could you take a look at this chart? We have spent more than in World War 1, World War 2, and all of the pre-Clinton spending years combined. And what do we have to show for it? Syz Group, Game of Trades, See U.S. government sources at bottom of chart Other than the lawyers are making a lot of money. We must cut red tape, cut spending, and fix our social security system. We do need reasonable tax reform, but the problem is spending—it will always be spending. The problem with the Keynesian approach - and the game that the Fed is playing with the Treasury Department is that austerity will never be an option. It will be more money printing and more inflation. Book it. Those are our only two options other than default. The former is off the table until these people retire or sit on clouds. We don’t have sound money. Protect yourself with our hedging strategy. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()