Postcards: A Tale of Two Augusts (And The World’s Largest Activist Investor)

Market Update: Nasdaq new high, Bitcoin on the verge, and gold at new records. Does anyone really think that this is because of rate cut expectations? Of course not, we’re watching a debasement of currencies worldwide continue - and money from all around the globe is spilling into U.S. markets. The U.S. equity market is now 70% of the Global MSCI Index. That’s literally what you call the Great American Bubble. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: A Tale of Two Augusts (And The World’s Largest Activist Investor)]( [Garrett {NAME}]( Mar 7   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: Nasdaq new high, Bitcoin on the verge, and gold at new records. Does anyone really think that this is because of rate cut expectations? Of course not, we’re watching a debasement of currencies worldwide continue - and money from all around the globe is spilling into U.S. markets. The U.S. equity market is now 70% of the Global MSCI Index. That’s literally what you call the Great American Bubble. Dear Fellow Expat:  On August 3, 2013, my entire family flew halfway across the country to West Lafayette, Indiana. The event was my graduation from Purdue’s Agricultural Economics program. It was a wonderful affair, concluding with a large reception at the school’s football stadium's club level. As the event wore into the final hour, I recall Dr. Allan Gray, head of my program, walking around and saying goodbye to everyone.  When I shook his hand, my then-girlfriend Lisa stood to my left. Allan to my right.  I asked him a question. It was important. You see… I’ve never been good at reaching the end of something. I didn’t even go to the ceremony when I graduated from a previous program in Maryland. I started the Purdue-Indiana program on the same day in 2009. I’ve always been the type of person who will climb a mountain and never look at the view; I’ll just set my eyes on another mountain in the distance that looks bigger… And then I’ll climb that one… only to not look at the view. It’s taken me a long time to get past that behavior. Given that I was wrapping up my other program at Indiana as well, this sheer moment of dread overcame me.  “To be honest, I’m wondering… What do I do next?”  I said. Allan Grey doesn’t need words to express his guidance or sense of humor. He smiled, then pointed his cupped hands at me… and then pointed at Lisa.  It was very subtly saying, “Marry her, you idiot.” We were engaged six months later in Charleston. We went on a carriage ride after the proposal - and the driver was very adamant about detailing every horror that’d happened in the city before 1870.  We were married 13 months later… on March 7, 2015. Nine years ago.  It has been wonderful. Six houses in nine years, three states, one fabulous daughter, costly Taylor Swift tickets, many inside jokes, and a lifetime of memories.  I’m looking forward to the next nine… [Upgrade to paid]( Eight Years Later (to the Day) I flew to Germany for work on August 3, 2021 (Eight years to the day of that graduation).  For the previous few months, I’d been working as the Second Chair on Money Morning LIVE!, trying to launch a trading show.  I did a show from a hotel room in Frankfurt—with my computer. On this episode, I made my best two-day trade call using only a stock—not an option. This show was the only one more memorable than the day I was physically cutting drywall to cover my windows an hour before the Hurricane Ian evacuation in Florida. What was the trade? Well, the Biden Administration had just released the text of the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. I did something that most Republicans and Democrats failed to do before it passed just three months later.  I read it. Cover to cover.  I do this with nearly every major piece of legislation - as I try to find opportunities to make money - or my money back as a taxpayer. I read the Affordable Healthcare Act in 2010. I read the 2009 and 2020 Stimulus bills. I’ve read appropriations bills. I even read full lobbyist reports before the damn bills are even written.  There’s a reason why I do this: I’m following the money. Usually stimulus bills offer Americans a pittance compared to what they provide to the private sector and favored constituents. And typically, money is spent to change or transform parts of the economy or social structure. Think of activist investors who buy parts of a company and aim to make changes at the corporate level, gunning for CEOs and the like.  Well, the U.S. government does, too… on a much, much larger scale. When it comes to behaviors and the economy - there is no bigger activist investor in America than [the United States government and its trillions in annual spending](. They’re not just changing the composition of companies, but the fundamental nature of businesses and economic activity with all of this borrowing and spending.  The 2021 Infrastructure BIll contained a lot of interesting spending programs. There were billions for emissions reductions at airports, seaports, and land ports. There were mandates around electric charging stations and emissions reduction.  Within Sec. 24103: Section 403… there’s a real treat for investors who understand the terminology that Congress uses. Specifically, there’s a mandate aimed at reducing Driving Under the Influence (DUIs) incidents. By as early as 2026, all new vehicles are expected to have technology known as a DADSS program.  That’d be the Driver Alcohol Detection System for Safety. You know, a breathalyzer.  On August 5, I mentioned the company called LifeLoc Technologies (LCTC). Shares traded at $3.59.  They rocketed to $9.80 in a week. Why? Everyone got caught up on the breathalyzer frenzy a few days later.  It was a very important reminder that, when it comes to the government, follow the money.  And understand that this is all a game in finding the winners and losers.  Picking Winners and Losers Whether we like it or not, the U.S. government will spend, spend, spend.  Then borrow.  Then spend some more.  And since we don’t have any control over policy, the best that we can do is go get our money back by investing in some of these key trends.  After all, we might have a recession … Yet, green energy stocks could boom because Washington is allocating billions or trillions of dollars to the never-ending grift.  Whether we like it or not, government spending on healthcare is going UP and not down.  Shares of Cigna (CI) have risen more than 830% since the passage of the Affordable Healthcare Act (affordable, ha!) in 2011.  There are plenty of other trends that will continue to center around the big theme of dirigisme - the idea that the government puts its thumb on the scale of the U.S. economy, [or the efforts by]( and proxy firms like ISS and Glass-Lewis to alter the structures and behaviors of companies.  I’ll be talking about names like Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and 3M (MMM) have all benefited from this trend… and will again. In a world of cheap money, rising liquidity, higher debt, monopolies, and fewer choices, we must control our destiny. The best way to do this is to identify opportunities with a reduced level of risk and significant, consistent upside over time.  That is why we focus on five trends: Dirigisme, U.S. debt, digitalization, decarbonization, and de-Americanization. They are the five inevitable trends of the next decade.  We canecapture gains by tracking terrific strategies in momentum, mean reversion, insider buying, and sector-based trading.  In the coming weeks, we’ll discuss a massive trend impacting the United States ahead of the election and show you where billions of dollars of your money is heading.  Most important - we’ll show you how to go and get it all back with one specific company that has 100% upside should the next Appropriations Bill (which we’ve read) pass this spring. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()