Postcards: Allegedly... Leap Day Woes... and the Fed's Latest Folly

Matt Taibbi beat me to this story, but I will comment anyway on the word "allegedly". Leap Day cost me money. And Powell goes to Congress, where it ends as badly as we expected. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Allegedly... Leap Day Woes... and the Fed's Latest Folly]( Matt Taibbi beat me to this story, but I will comment anyway on the word "allegedly". Leap Day cost me money. And Powell goes to Congress, where it ends as badly as we expected. [Garrett {NAME}]( Mar 6   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: We’ve had a nice rebound today from yesterday’s selloff. We’re witnessing the continued expansion of global liquidity (according to Michael Howell) and the never-ending frenzy around irrationally valued assets like crypto and semiconductors. But as we note below, there is serious selling pressure across small-cap stocks as we await the Fed’s upcoming meeting. Bitcoin is now consolidating at $67,000. There’s a wall of sell orders at $71,000. We’ll see if it can break through that level… and if so… it’ll rip well past $75,000. Otherwise, we’re likely heading back to the $61,000 level—battle of the bulls/bears on the Electric Centipede. Dear Fellow Expat: What’s the deal with the word… “Allegedly?” (No Jerry Seinfeld voice needed). [Author Matt Taibbi]( beat me to the punch on this topic. I wish these things didn’t bother me. But as you know, we are very committed to transparency and [getting things right about the world around us](. When we’re wrong, we correct ourselves. When we make a stock pick mistake, we discuss it. There’s no ducking responsibility. So… talk about a basic rule](. Even if we are convinced that someone committed a crime, we are compelled to follow two very important standards—legally and journalistically. On Sunday, MSNBC host Kristen Welker reported that President Trump “allegedly” tried to overturn the 2020 election. Since then, media critics - and journalists themselves - went into apoplectic rages over the fact that she dared to use the word “allegedly.” Here’s what she said on Meet the Press. All Emphasis, mine. “Haley is now dialing back expectations… Haley is also weighing in on the Supreme Court's decision to hear arguments over Mr. [Donald] Trump’s claim that he’s immune from criminal prosecution for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election.” This is not a commentary on Trump’s actions. It’s not meant to be. This is a fundamental focus on journalism, its faltering state, and the complete and utter insanity that drives people to misunderstand fundamental civil law. Critics of Welker’s reporting went ballistic. Dash Dubrovsky—[who goes on epic video rants that should come with an epilepsy warning]( that the reporter was trying to “whitewash” Trump’s alleged crimes. (But he didn’t use alleged…) Other people with “journalist” in their Twitter bios… couldn’t help but scream into the social media ether. Here’s what matters… and why they’re wrong… Welker is a career broadcast journalist. For over 20 years, she’s worked for local stations, the bedrock of broadcast journalism. She was a reporter and weekend anchor at WCAU in Philly. And reporters know something that most critics do not. Even if you have a video of a man confessing to a crime on video. Even if he signs a confession. Even if there are recorded phone calls or physical threats of violence… Even if you have the fingerprints, the glove, the blood samples, and the motive… Even if they might be later found guilty in a civil case… until that jury or judge says “guilty” - you always use the word “allegedly.” Always. Hell, Guardian]( even says O.J. “Simpson allegedly killed [Nicole Brown Simpson] and her friend Ron Goldman at her home in Brentwood, Los Angeles, but was found not guilty.” It doesn’t matter what your feelings are or if you’re 100% sure a person did something wrong. If it’s a public figure, it’s tough for them to sue for libel and defamation. But if this is someone down the street… it could be the difference between a media company doing its job… and going out of business. This is such a simple standard to adhere to in journalism, yet we regularly see so many people eager to lie in the opinion world of this advocacy profession. This is a very serious standard. It’s easy to see why so many online media outlets are under fire. It’s clear that traditional journalism is in its final death throes, and this election could easily be what sends it into the dark abyss. Loosening up the libel laws for public figures seems like an idea (it’s a terrible one) to combat this issue. Here in Florida, the recent efforts to do so would make this state a “lawsuit tourism” destination. The better thing is for our media to accept - even if they write the damn word in a massive, bold font with an asterisk next to it… in this country - all suspects receive the benefit of the doubt - and are innocent until proven guilty. Just say “allegedly.” I don’t care if you wear a clown nose and wink at the audience while saying the word… This is how it should be done until that gavel comes down with a verdict. This might not matter to many readers, but it’s a fundamental principle of my education and editorial code. And I won’t retreat from this hill because it’s convenient, or I might be able to get a few more likes as a result. The critics of such a simple policy can shut up. They shouldn’t be in the media if they are criticizing proper ethics. They should be in the other room… coloring… trying their best to get the picture they made of a blue donkey on the refrigerator instead of commenting on this. Because this behavior and criticism are just hackery… and trying to make something bigger because they lack any talent other than bitching about politics. Nice drawing, Dash. Perhaps it’s best to return to a more localized form of media that tackles issues directly impacting readers within 20 miles of their home instead of whatever is happening in D.C. or New York. Getting back to the local stories is what matters. Having said that… let’s get back to D.C.-centric News!!! (This is where I’d appreciate it if the Kool-Aid Man broke through my wall and took me on an adventure in my golf cart.) I’m still a Bills fan, with a Ravens golf cart And Now For the Main Course “Will the Federal Reserve keep interest rates higher for longer?” Yes…. The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer! Can you hear me in the back!!! We’ve been saying this since the final rate hike as the shift moved from how high to how long.]( Now we know. Fed Chair Jerome Powell started his testimony with the same outlook we’ve had for months. The central bank can’t begin to cut interest rates soon. Was it the recent uptick in inflation? Was it the massive gusher of liquidity sloshing through the system since October? Was it job reports that continue to show wage growth? Was it the $1.7 trillion deficit? Or the $1 trillion we added to the debt in 100 days. Or what about the $100 billion we added to our new debt in just four days last week? Since December, I’ve suggested that there wouldn’t be a rate cut until July, but now, prominent alternative asset teams led by Apollo Group’s Chief Economist are saying there will be no rate cut until 2025. Powell said we shouldn’t expect cuts soon either. Now, we know that the CPI is a lie. And that the Fed needs to get its act together to ensure financial stability. But they’re behind the curve here. And if Apollo is right about rate cuts, well, then God help the consumer. Credit card usage is spiraling higher. I can’t find one real estate agent who is optimistic about 2025. And then, come 2026 - when this latest global cycle ends - it will be a hell of a buyers’ market. The Fed is so data-driven that they can’t quite bring themselves to admit that next year could be a disaster. I don’t know why anyone would want to be President from 2024 to 2032… because things are about to get very real - and they will be getting blamed for 30 years of reckless central bank actions when the reality finally sets in that pensions are broke, entitlements will be insolvent, and you can’t tax enough to fix this problem. So, what’s the solution, Garrett? For you as an investor? [I gave it to you on Monday… for free]( - a 17-page report outlining where investors should be hedging their money against the wave of monetary inflation over the next decade. You’ll find the strategies that we use and how we approach markets. Again… free. Finally Thanks a lot, Leap Day! As much fun as I had watching Denzel Washington movies and eating frozen yogurt, it led to an interesting twist in our latest Model Portfolio pick. Turns out… the stock had rallied into March 1. And I make picks each first day of the month, regardless of the situation. The stock had a nice move on Leap Day, making it a little more expensive the next day when we released it. After yesterday’s selloff and challenges in financing for one of the company’s rivals, the stock pulled back 10%. It’s back up today but still below its high point of the year. This is a great time to get into this lithium name before demand explodes in the years ahead. Remember - the government and the Fed must stabilize the financial system - and spend more money. The Green Transition is a perfect excuse to expand the monetary base because war probably won’t be an excuse in the next ten years. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()