Postcards: Dogs in a Bar? Yes... Dogs in a Bar

Dogs at a bar are always a hit... what's happening in the Lithium sector... and a check in on our existing "Capital Woo" portfolio. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Dogs in a Bar? Yes... Dogs in a Bar]( Dogs at a bar are always a hit... what's happening in the Lithium sector... and a check in on our existing "Capital Woo" portfolio. [Garrett {NAME}]( Mar 1   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: Nasdaq, new record. S&P 500 won’t stop burning higher,  Dear Fellow Expat: We’re doing some upgrades around the house, and contractors are putting in a few bids today.   And I have to get the dogs out of the house while the trucks come through. So, we find ourselves at the North Bonita Country Club - home of the great Wednesday sandwich - the Chicago Beef. Sadly, it’s Friday. Both dogs are here today, and they’re the life of the party. The one on the left is Gracie. She ate a bag of sand the other day. It set me back more than my already swelling car insurance. Elsie has been standing in the walkway - awaiting treats. Gracie can’t have any because her stomach is still upset, and she’s dealing with elevated pancreatic readings. So, we all have water. I have a salad. Elsie eats like a king. Gracie wonders where my wife and daughter are… [Dogs are great.]( [Upgrade to paid]( Is It This Obvious? I’ve said before that the Great EV Transition will experience a lot of hiccups. [Dr. Peter St. Onge did a great video today]( highlighting a frequent theme here in the Republic. The lawyers are crushing our manufacturers and our productive economy. Things are so bad now that energy companies are turning to the U.S. Supreme Court. “Sue and Settle” is ugly. But it’ll be here if we allow our agencies to engage in this "real threat to democracy.” (With apologies to the always [mind-numbing rants of Paul Krugman]( So, there you have a trend.  Dirigisme is the fundamental opposite of a free market system.  It’s not socialism. It’s not communism. [It’s just an activist government picking winners and losers.]( And when it comes to the concept of “activist investors, who put pressure on companies with their money and proxy battles,” - there’s no bigger one, in theory and practice, than the United States government. The second trend is decarbonization. And that’s only set to continue - when you evaluate [the never-ending state mandates]( that are pressing for more EVs, more battery storage, and more reductions in emissions. It’s here to stay. This begs the question: Why are investors actively running away from lithium stocks? In a conversation with my friend in Switzerland this morning, we saw deflation in battery costs. But that’ll change. I watch Lithium America (LAC) and NAACO Industries (NC) - the major players at Thacker Pass in Nevada.  This mine finally got past all the Sue and Settle lawyers who tried to stop production over a rare Buckwheat.  Even at full capacity, this one mine would produce just a quarter of General Motors’ (GM) electric vehicle demand from three years ago. So, it’s interesting to see LAC get its teeth kicked (down 66% in two years) while NC hasn’t done much. And all of this is while there’s a shortage of lithium looming next year in the global EV, battery, and other mineral-based industries. As I explained this morning, lithium demand will explode in the years ahead - so much so that we’ll see those shortages arrive next year at the soonest, but definitely by 2026. That’s why we went with an attractive stock with our analysis this month - focusing on debt and strong ROIC in the industry. We’re looking to get through whatever impasse we have with this industry - and we’ve looking for a big rally out of a relatively young lithium stock. I wrote today: “It’s all about demand and mandates. Globally, Statista projects that the demand for lithium will increase by 1,235% over 15 years. Those figures equate from 310 metric tonnes in 2020 to over 3.8 million metric tonnes by 2035. If you’re looking for a Moat here… Morningstar says we should pay close attention to '[this company’s global] lithium production, which has high-quality and low-impurity assets [in South America].” So, we added it to the Model Portfolio, which had to be renamed… Someone said we couldn’t use the term “Capital Wave” portfolio for now… So, we just changed it to the “Capital Woo” portfolio in honor of pro wrestler Rick Flair. That’s more fun anyway.  Everytime a portfolio stock goes up, we’ll scream in unison: “Woo!” We’ll eventually get that taken care of… Today, we released this new pick while skipping over refineries, coal producers, and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM).  ADM is VERY intriguing, but I can’t dive into it until we see the volatility from the end of this financial investigation. ADM is attractive for the risk-taking - since the numbers don’t add up. Shares fell 25% despite earnings figures dropping up to 8%. Seems like an overreaction. But I’d rather ride ADM from $60 to $80… than $55 to $40… and wait for it to rebound. At worst, we’d like some momentum to return to the stock.  It - along with others - go to watch lists. How Our Portfolio Has Performed So, I said a while ago that I’d release this portfolio for readers to see the performance. I talked with my publishing team, and they read me the Riot Act… As you can see, we’re trailing the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on the year by 120 basis points. But we didn’t invest in NVDA or AAPL - because we’re trying to beat our benchmark without index crowding.  We are beating the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index - which is up 3.4% this year, and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) up 3.3%.  If you read previous editions - you’ll find the other names.  For now, I must ask you to do some homework. I’ll bring them up this month… but with a few of the stocks under their buy level… you’ll see two Buys rated in the portfolio. And - remember - we just went live with a new pick today. You can get access right here. [Upgrade to paid]( Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()