Republic Risk: The Fed Cometh... (And NVIDIA Giveth?)

This is historically a nasty two-week stretch for the U.S. markets. It's best to play defense as we barrel toward the March 15 Quad Witching event. Don't be stunned by a rise in volatility this week. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Republic Risk: The Fed Cometh… (And NVIDIA Giveth?)]( This is historically a nasty two-week stretch for the U.S. markets. It's best to play defense as we barrel toward the March 15 Quad Witching event. Don't be stunned by a rise in volatility this week. [Garrett {NAME}]( Feb 20 ∙ Preview   [READ IN APP](   Dear  Fellow Expat: Good morning.  Welcome back. Founders, thanks for joining me yesterday for an overdue market recap and a deeper dive into our fundamentals and strategies. The video was a bit overdue, but we went for 40 minutes. We covered liquidity, the portfolio, and why China is in a lot of trouble. Let’s get to the Holiday-shortened week and a futures market that is down a bit (although oil is moving higher because of more problems in the Red Sea). We are entering - historically - the worst two-week period of the financial markets on an annual basis since 1928. And while past performance doesn’t guarantee future outcomes, most investors clearly understand seasonality.  Source: barchart, Bloomberg, via Syz Group The chart above shows that the average return since 1928 is about negative 1% for the back half of February. That typically follows gains in the first two weeks of the month.  Several negative catalysts could turn this recent rally to all-time highs into a short-term selloff. The concentration of gains this year has been in the Top 5 stocks in the S&P 500, and three tech stocks have driven 90% of the gains in the Technology Sector.  We’re seeing the highest concentration of these Mega Cap names… ever.  There are two things to watch. ... Keep reading with a 7-day free trial Subscribe to Postcards from the Florida Republic to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives. [Start trial]( A subscription gets you: The Republic Risk Letter - (Morning) Weekend Postcards (The Week Ahead) and Access to Full Archive An Update When SPY and IWM Readings Turn Positive/Negative   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()