Postcards: Country Music Has a Drinking Problem... (The Early Show)

On day 1 of Free Range Garrett - a restaurant up the road for lunch... where every song appears to be about blacking out at a bar, a beach, or on a boat... Don't go to the Early Show in this market. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Country Music Has a Drinking Problem... (The Early Show)]( On day 1 of Free Range Garrett - a restaurant up the road for lunch... where every song appears to be about blacking out at a bar, a beach, or on a boat... Don't go to the Early Show in this market. [Garrett {NAME}]( Feb 19   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: It’s been a busy day. I shot the Founder’s Video this morning. Then, I cleaned the car… It took 25 minutes to get the dogs out of the backseat because they were convinced we were going for a ride. Then, I went to the North Bonita Country Club, a pseudo dive bar with really good food. The songs from the last 20 minutes were heavily about alcohol. It’s almost like Country Music has a drinking problem. They consisted of the following lyrics from respective songs: - “One margarita, two margarita, three margarita, shot!” - Luke Bryan - “Jack, Jim, 'quila lime, apple pie, this is my Gettin'-over-her-'til-I'm-passed-out drinkaby.” - Cole Swindell - "I'ma need some whiskey glasses, beause I don't wanna see the truth." - Morgan Wallen. - "Long neck, ice-cold beer never broke my heart." - Luke Combs. - "There's a hole in the bottle leaking all this wine." - Kelsea Ballerini And the best one… - “Baby, I'm drunk, and I don't wanna go home. We don't gotta wait until the weekend.” Elle King & Miranda Lambert Ladies… It’s Monday. [Upgrade to paid]( The Early Show When I was 15, my family took a summer trip to the Northeast. I’m younger than my siblings, who partook in bars and restaurants with my parents and their friends. One afternoon, a family friend had three bottles of white wine on the beach before 4 pm. He wasn’t “three sheets to the wind.” He was an entire steamship. My brother had arrived late to the beach and asked my sister how the friend had gotten in that condition. “He went to the Early Show,” she said, with a delivery similar to how Meg Ryan might. I have always loved that line, and it’s been one that has floated through the lexicon of our family bar for now decades. “He went to the early show.” He started drinking early. My brother says the line similar to how Dennis Reynolds from Always Sunny might. My cousin is a little more bombastic and funnier. “Bro… He went to the ERRRR-lee show,” he says in his Delmarva accent. As I looked around the room of this restaurant - in a Florida season bar- plenty of people went to today’s early show at 1 pm. You have to be careful about the Early Show. It can ruin evening plans. It can put you in a hurt locker and throw off your sleep pattern for days. You might find out that you slept through a great party… or a friend came in from out of town, and you missed them - because you were at the Early Show. So… how does this relate to the markets? Well… there’s an Early Show for stocks, too. And too many people are starting to show up. Crash Predictions, Liquidity, and the Early Show Last week, I had a meeting with several analysts. So many of them are adamant that this stock market will crash in 2024. The question is… are too many analysts getting drunk on their crash predictions… by being too early? No doubt - this market has been insane, driven by a massive irrationality around AI stocks and the tech sector. As of last week, NVIDIA (NVDA) has a market capitalization larger than the entire Energy sector… which makes zero sense. Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet now have a combined market capitalization higher than the EuroStoxx50, FTSE 100, and the SMI20 combined. U.S. markets are now completely dislocated - with a concentration in just five stocks rivaling 1929 and easily surpassing the Dot-Com Bubble. And the U.S. equity markets are now 70% of the Global MSCI Index. That’s a record. With seasonality approaching its worst two-week period in the last 100 years, investors are on standby. We have a dagger of a Fed Minutes report on Wednesday that should remove all doubt about “no rate cut” in March. And NVIDIA’s earnings report will likely explode the market in one of two directions. The “BUT” is “What” has happened in the last two years. While a selloff feels inevitable, a crash seems unlikely in this current environment. The concern is that too many traders and investors will be Early regarding these predictions. And such sentiment produces charts like this… The market in 1929 was VERY different than what we have now. I look at this chart and have difficulty expecting this to happen over the next few weeks. There are multiple reasons. Howell’s “Global liquidity” reading is at a record high. Money is pouring into the United States because it’s largely the only game in town. China’s structural decline is still early, and everyone is crowding into the U.S. The passive investment market continues to build, with more money moving into ETFs, mutual funds, and more than ever. I stick to the previous statements that I’ve made - as I expect two 8% declines in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. But a “crash” - similar to what we witnessed in 2008 or 2020- will require many more structural problems to arrive. The good news is that we have a tool to tell us when it’s time to head for the exits in real-time. Our Equity Strength Signal turned negative on February 21, 2020 - long before the COVID-19 crash bottomed at minus 33%. In addition, we avoided the regional banking crisis last year when our signal went negative on March 7, 2023. The Fed and the Treasury quickly stepped in to provide ample liquidity support - which has always been their preferred path. Being early as a short is never a good thing. I have met many people sitting at a bar, saying they called a crash and bet against the market. The problem: They were a few weeks or months or years early. And now they’re drinking $2 beers instead of naming their own boat. Market timing is tricky - but we are watching the flows. The Crash of 2026? I’m more nervous about late 2025 to mid-2026 when a pig farmer with no former financial background (Samuel Brenner) predicted in the mid-1800s that the “hard times” would come in those years... [It’s funny how this aligns with Cross Border Capital’s predictions]( for liquidity cycles in the future. Don’t bet against these cycles… Don’t go to the Early Show. Follow our signals instead. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()