Postcards: Insulting Our Market Intelligence (Republic Speak)

I swear it's maddening to have someone lie directly to your face. But that's America. We've known we've been lied to for the last 30 years. But they're not even trying now.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Insulting Our Market Intelligence (Republic Speak)]( I swear it's maddening to have someone lie directly to your face. But that's America. We've known we've been lied to for the last 30 years. But they're not even trying now. [Garrett {NAME}]( Feb 10   [READ IN APP](   White House Intern “Justification Jack” Dear Fellow Expat: Imagine, if you will, that you own a brick house… And every day, someone takes one brick out of your back wall.  You might not notice on Day One or Two, but after a few weeks, you feel a draft. So, you call the contractor (who works for the government). He leaves, comes back, and says… “We checked it. There’s no hole…” But there is a hole. And another brick keeps disappearing every day. In the next month, the entire brick wall will be missing. So you call again… “What are you talking about?” the government contractor asks. “The wall is fine. The wall is right there…” Then, the contractor acts like a mime, touching an invisible wall. The U.S. Secretary “Wall Whisperer” That’s a good metaphor for U.S. border policy right now. Did you, fellow expat, know there isn’t a problem at the border?  We’ve been told so by the guy in charge of it. “It is my testimony that the border is secure.” Sec. Alejandro Mayorkas, April 2023. But then enough people started to notice, especially voters living in the cities. “There is a problem at the border,” someone finally admitted. Yesterday, Denver’s mayor said they’d cut essential services to provide additional resources to the large number of migrants who came to the “sanctuary city.” Then… he blamed Republicans for the problem. Of course, his party made Denver a sanctuary city in 2017. The bill's text the previous mayor signed that year explicitly codified the city's resistance efforts to avoid working with federal immigration enforcement. This is how it works in government. Every day, someone else is responsible for the problem… It’s just never the people in charge. Last month, we heard the lack of border security was… “Trump’s fault. No, it’s [Texas Governor] Greg Abbott’s fault.” Then it became… “No… never mind. There’s no problem…” because we were dealing with shipping attacks in the Red Sea. Then this week… “Wait… We’ve changed our mind. There is a problem. Let’s blame Congress.” Here’s the latest from the White House Briefing Room. “House Republicans have obstructed his reform proposal and consistently voted against his unprecedented border security funding year after year, hamstringing our border security in the name of extreme, partisan demands,” White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said. For the love of all that is holy.  Stop insulting my intelligence. I am aware that the Republicans have no plan… But this White House ended the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), rescinded the Public Charge Rule, halted any border wall construction, altered asylum rules, and the President said in a debate that more migrants should come here.  This isn’t a left or right issue. It’s just an honesty issue. I can read newspapers about policy decisions by current leaders from a few years ago. They’re available on this called the Internet. Have our leaders ever heard of it? For enforcement, the White House has the national authority to shut the border under the National Emergencies Act of 1976.  But we’re not trying to accomplish anything, right? It’s an election year… Well, it’s always an election year. Thank you, two-party system. We have no borders.  We have no sound money.  We have no equal accountability under the law. We aren’t a serious nation. [Upgrade to paid]( How This All Works Have you ever wondered where people go when they leave the White House Briefing Room? They turn to the camera’s left and proceed behind that blue curtain. Well, I think I know the answer.  A room leads to a secret garden, where a large number of seals wait for fish.  Each seal has a helmet with a different-colored light on it.  Each fish has a color corresponding to it, and a “list of excuses” is pinned behind it. White House Excuse Czar a.k.a. “The Perjure Pinniped.” Whatever fish the most seals look at, the lights on the helmets glow. With that, the White House spokespersons have their talking points for blaming America's problems on others on that corresponding list. But if the press conference doesn’t go well, they storm off, scream at the seals for picking the wrong fish, and start over again.  Is there any other explanation here?  Where else - outside of some LSD-fueled polling groups - do they think these excuses work? I’m not saying the GOP is any better. When they’re back in charge, I’ll yell at them. But this is amateur hour in a time of national emergency. Let’s get to the week ahead. [Upgrade to paid]( The Week Ahead Monday, February 11, 2023 Event: Now that the S&P 500 is at 5,000… we get the luxury of listening to various members of the Federal Reserve start rambling about rate cuts. This week, we have comments from Thomas Barkin, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michael Barr, and Raphael Bostic. It’s like a Who’s Who of Who’s Always Wrong. Republic Speak: While everyone was caught up in arms about the Hur report on Biden this week, did everyone miss the staggering statement from another elder stateswoman? This time, it came from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said: For the love of all that is holy. Is she aware that millions of Americans are retired and living on fixed incomes? All she’s doing is flooding the Uber driver and Walmart greeter market with language like this. Stanley Druckenmiller criticized her for failing to refinance our long-term debt at zero percent rates. Now, you have this sort of language. She’s easily surpassing Timothy Geithner on the worst Treasury Secretary list. HELP US!!! Tuesday, February 12, 2023 Event: CPI update, OPEC Monthly oil report, Coca-Cola Earnings Republic Speak: Sure, Lyft (LYFT) will report earnings, and we’ll find out how many people are taking second jobs in the Yellen economy, but Coca-Cola fascinates me because of the ongoing Ozempic craze. If you’re a Coca-Cola shareholder, remember a better opportunity abroad exists with Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV (NYSE: KOF). Nothing really seems to stop this rally, as Global Liquidity is at all-time highs. But we may get some surprises around consumer prices, and funds decide to take some recent gains off the table. Core inflation appears to be heading up 0.3% month-over-month, but remember what I said the other day. These numbers are cooked. [According to people who count the data]( the real cost of goods is up much more. Then there’s OPEC. We’re watching oil prices closely, as it will give us a chance to start trading and put spreads on names we want to own, like Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Wednesday, February 13, 2023 Event: Hedge fund 13F Filings Republic Speak: Let’s all freak out over what Warren Buffett and Bill Ackman bought… 45 days ago. Well, there is good reason to watch these 13F filings. These fund managers are the ultimate insiders. Since it will be Wednesday, we can start making trades with specific instructions about the fund managers and what prices they paid. This will be an important day for the Republic Risk Letter; be sure to join. [Upgrade to paid]( Thursday, February 14, 2023 Event: Consumer Sentiment, Producer Price Index, Deere (DE) Earnings Republic Speak: I don’t see consumer sentiment slipping, and PPI has mirrored CPI, so we should not have any serious changes in expectations. But Deere (DE)… my favorite non-AI, AI company? My heart of hearts? My new paint? My dear, Deere. It’s trading at 11 times earnings, for heavens’s sake. I love this company. Friday, February 15, 2023 Event: Nothing… Republic Speak: On Friday, we wear pink. And ask questions in one chart. As we know, the top four stocks on the S&P 500 are driving this market to the sky. As Syz Group pointed out this weekend, when the average stock is down this much, there’s usually a serious problem. So… what is going on? In addition to the massive crowding into the top of the S&P 500… we are still in the middle of an AI craze that feels like a repeat of the Dot-Com period on steroids, combined with China’s market crash, global liquidity records, higher interest rates weighing on other names, and a massive cratering in venture capital that has favored the biggest names with their on VC shops. Yes, there’s something very wrong. But so long as the capital keeps flowing - markets will keep moving. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()