Postcards: The BLS Deserves an Oscar for This Big Performance

I couldn't sleep last night because... well... we know the truth, and we deserve and have earned the dignity of hearing it from our leaders. They just won't admit the truth, which makes it much worse.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: The BLS Deserves an Oscar for This Big Performance]( I couldn't sleep last night because... well... we know the truth, and we deserve and have earned the dignity of hearing it from our leaders. They just won't admit the truth, which makes it much worse. [Garrett {NAME}]( Feb 8   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat, Look at the chart below.  This is Tenaris SA (TS) 's year-to-date performance. The European-based steel company is down 8.4% this year. I wish it were doing better.  Tenaris is our worst performer in 2024 within the [Republic Risk Letter]( Overall, the Portfolio is beating the S&P 500, and our shipping stocks are doing great.  But Tenairis - which fits all of the metrics we look for in a reversion play - hasn’t found its floor yet. Now, let’s say you write me and ask - nicely - "Garrett, could you explain why Tenaris is down 8.4% this year?" Imagine if I answered, “What are you talking about? Tenaris is up 10%. It’s doing great, and we’re happy with the returns.” “What!” you’d say, a vein popping in your forehead. “The stock is down 8.4%! Look at the chart.” “No.” I’d reply, “This chart is wrong. Tenaris is doing great. And anyone who suggests that Tenaris isn’t doing well is a danger to America and rooting against our allies in Luxembourg.” I’d hope, at worst, you thought I’d lost my mind.  But in reality, I’d just be insulting your intelligence. That’s how I feel whenever I read any economic news coming from the government in our post-COVID world. In the past week, we’ve witnessed economic data that doesn’t come close to reality - and virtually no one in the media seems to understand the sheer power of the deflection that continues to spill from the financial elites. I’m losing sleep over this madness… [Upgrade to paid]( It’s Beyond Insulting - We Have Eyes I’ve studied economics for 23 years across three schools of theory (Keynesian, Chicago, and Austrian). I have a master's degree in economic policy (security), an M.S. in trade economics, and an MBA in finance. My top skills are deductive reasoning and information processing, which helped me on standardized testing and as a writer. I also went to the No. 2 journalism undergraduate program in the nation and studied economic history too.  I’m telling you all this not to brag; I’m aware of the accreditation fallacy.  But I am telling you… that despite all of my education, I barely even know what is real at times in post-COVID America. I have the U.S. government - acting as a sort of hypnic jerk - to give me this feeling that I’m falling almost every night in bed. Dall-E Take last Friday’s jobs report. It was one of the most absurd pieces of fiction written since "The Metamorphosis" by Franz Kafka. Markets celebrated the news that the U.S. unexpectedly gained 353,000 jobs.  That beat Wall Street expectations by roughly 100% - a reminder that forecasting remains a fool’s game for any government figures. But did we create that many jobs?  Not even close.  Zerohedge has called it “[The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report Ever]( Hourly earnings jumped 4.5%.  The unemployment rate held steady.  And the financial media did another victory lap.  Of course, the hourly wage numbers only increased because the government statisticians cut the hours in the average work week. This is simple division.  If someone makes $200 in a 20-hour work week, they’re making it $10 an hour. But cut the work week to 15 hours… and now you’re up to $13.33. Now, you and I might work 40-hour work weeks (some of us go much more). But the government tagged it at 34.1 hours. That’s the lowest since the Great Financial Crisis. [As Dr. Peter St. Onge notes]( the only reason to cut work weeks to that level is to - Admit that we’re facing the worst economy since the Great Financial Crisis, or, - ALie to make things look good. St. Onge continues to note that the jobs in the report aren’t even real. He notes that Census household survey data shows that about half of all Labor Department jobs are fictitious.  The Census calls and asks questions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t. Last month’s Census data shows a loss of 31,000 jobs… St. Onge also notes that we didn’t see any full-time job growth at all in 2023, according to that same, more reliable Census data. All of the jobs were either Uber-related or part-time work to sustain household budgets against compounding inflation. And to make matters even more confusing, the Wall Street Journal says that practically all of the jobs created last year were from social assistance or government.  So, there’s that. As St. Onge concludes - last year, the combination of no full-time jobs with government jobs means that the economic engine of America - the private sector - is declining. That’s your tax base. That’s what pays for the government.  Not printing or borrowing money.  Simply put. The BLS numbers are not real. They can’t be trusted.  And our private sector is being drowned by higher interest rates while the government borrows and spends.  Yet… we are told that this is a functioning, thriving economy.  You know it. I know it… it’s all a fabrication. Deficits: Deficits Everywhere. The Fourth Estate has failed on a massive level. I went to “journalism school” [Insert audience laughter] with many people who are now editors at major newspapers - including the New York Times. They think they’re fighting a good fight by aligning on these moral issues of our times with this elite.  And yet, they don’t see the reality in front of them.  For example, look at this article from Axios that appeared yesterday. Axios wrote a somewhat confounding article about how U.S. deficits are set to explode over the next decade. The article notes - basically what I said a few days ago - that our deficit will grow to above 5% this year and spiral out of control toward double digits over the next decade. But here’s the line by Courtenay Brown, author of Axios Macro, that nearly gave me a nosebleed. In its outlook, the CBO notes that deficits have exceeded this share of GDP only in periods of economic crises, not as the U.S. economy has[boomed](. Who wants to tell her? The “economy” is “booming” because Keynesian economists are running a massive freaking deficit. Strip out the CARES Act, huge amounts of infrastructure spending, an 8% increase in COLA benefits… and the fact the government’s spending is 37.5% of GDP… Factor in manufacturing collapse and back out the new jobs not entering the private sector… And you get a real economy that is on the ropes. What planet do these journalists live on? Do they have editors?  Do their editors understand how deficits work?  U.S. government spending is 37.5% of GDP… coming off of two years where we had 48.8% and 43.0% of GDP. That’s wartime-level spending - not in times of a booming economy. More than one out of every three dollars. And it’s projected to go up even more in the years ahead, while deficits start to approach 10% a year. A command economy dominated by an administrative state is the problem.  This is why we’re on pace to become Argentina in the next two decades.  Because of what the people lying to us have done to the real economy.  And the fact that the people who monitor them don’t want to be experts in the areas they cover or challenge the people who tell them blatant falsehoods.  No… the journalists want to climb the D.C. social ladder instead and go to cocktail parties. They want to fit in. But Wait, There’s More Theses media operatives don’t understand deficits… and certainly don’t understand inflation.  Our Consumer Price Index is an absolute con as well. The December reading says that the CPI is sitting at 3.4%.  Well, it’s convenient that we changed the CPI score in 1990.  If we used the same inflation reading we had in 1980, the CPI would be at 7.8%.  It’s okay if people think ShadowStats is a conspiracy. The blue line checks out if you simply look at the shift in their models in the 1990s. But if you need better data… fresh data, let’s turn to The Chapwood Index.  This “reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America.” On a semi-annual basis, they report “the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.” It’s survey data of real prices of real people in real cities. The numbers are eye-popping.  A city like Baltimore has faced a compounding average increase in price levels of 11.8% for six years.  And obviously… the highest ongoing price increases are New York, and any large city in California. Here’s the Chapwood Index chart… by average price level increases since 2017. Who are you going to trust? The official numbers or the surveys that do research. Once again… we have eyes and data. And yet they keep telling us something different. We’ve Earned This Dignity I’m sorry to rant today… but the painters are in the master bedroom…And the ceremonial pillow into which I scream when I read financial journalism is currently covered in plastic.  I know a lot of you feel the same way about reality versus the official narrative. And I want you to know you’re not alone. I’ll finish with this. In 2017, I saw President Joe Biden speak at the SALT Conference in Las Vegas.  It was a great speech.  One line - he lined over, pointed a finger to the audience, and said, “Everyone is entitled to the dignity they have earned.” It is a memorable quote.  So, allow us in the Florida Republic to share this same message. Washington, we are entitled to dignity… and honesty.  Stop insulting our intelligence.  We’ve at least earned that. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()