Postcards: Why On Earth Would You Take THAT Job?!?

The No. 2 Republic Risk and Opportunity was discovered 45 miles down Alligator Alley... where a man made a bad decision with his vehicle and career decisions.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Why On Earth Would You Take THAT Job?!?]( The No. 2 Republic Risk and Opportunity was discovered 45 miles down Alligator Alley... where a man made a bad decision with his vehicle and career decisions. [Garrett {NAME}]( Jan 30   [READ IN APP](   No Financial Adventure Today. The Truth is Just As Ridiculous. Market Update: Microsoft (MSFT) took a 3% hit after earnings - but we call that a buying opportunity, right? The markets are in a holding pattern as we await Wednesday’s decision by the Federal Reserve. I’ll also comment tomorrow at Postcards after the Fed meeting with a very special guest… and we’ll update readers on how to trade this at 2:35 as the markets react to Powell’s speech. Dear Fellow Expat: Five months ago, I received an invitation to dinner in Boca Raton. That’s two hours across Alligator Alley from my house. As luck would have it, my wife needed our car simultaneously. I didn’t want to rent a Nissan. I couldn’t fly - not unless I went through Atlanta. So… I did what everyone does when they break the glass. I called Uber (UBER). A driver picked me up in an Uber and drove me 130 miles to Boca Raton. It was, surprisingly, cheaper than I expected. The downside is that this driver didn’t stop talking. He talked about his wife and his time bartending in Baltimore, but he mainly talked about the Tesla we were traveling in. Halfway through the ride, he confessed he didn’t even own it. He rented it… from Hertz (HTZ) for $332 per week. Yes, you read that right. He rented a Tesla to drive for Uber. Rent a Tesla to drive Uber? What kind of weird, nightmarish ESG techno-feudal business model is this? Tesla gets paid… Hertz (still a company) gets paid… and this guy has to make at least 10 to 15 rides just to break even. If that isn’t “peak EV”… I don’t know what is.  I researched and found that the average person who does this program makes about $22 per hour. But that’s a lot of driving. Even worse than the driving is… you never know where it will take you. But ESG techno-feudal careers will likely be a lot more common in the future… …thanks to the U.S. government's plans for decarbonization - the No. 2 Republic Risk and Opportunity for the next decade. [Upgrade to paid]( Defining Decarbonization Decarbonization is part of the regressive elite’s never-ending crusade to be miserable. It’s a staggering plan to strip the most advanced civilization in history of its lifeblood: carbon-based fuels. Who the hell came up with this? Imagine two kids getting high ahead of an anatomy exam and one turning to say, “Hey man… what if we tried to replace the human circulatory system… you know all the blood, oxygen, and capillaries… what if we replaced it with cat food?” Imagine trying to lose weight by cutting out all food – ambitious, but perhaps not the brightest idea in the pantry. Fancy telling a fish to live on land because the water's too wet. The world’s economy was built around oil and gas - not vice versa. I hope you know a good horse dealer and you’ve brushed up on your Morse code. Forward, comrades! Ignore all of the warning signs!!! Like… no thanks, man… Forget that (thanks to natural gas) the U.S. has led the world in carbon reduction from the Copenhagen Climate Plan put in place a decade ago. Forget that China builds two coal power plants a week across its nation. Forget that Germany’s economy took a beating by leveraging a $2 trillion manufacturing economy on just $20 billion in Russian natural gas… only to see the natural gas disappear. Forget that to accomplish the Green Transition - we need four times the copper, ten times the cobalt, ten times the lithium, 16 times the graphite, and anywhere between three and 15 times the current annual production of other commodities ranging from nickel to manganese to individual rare earth metals (REE). And definitely forget that we’ve never doubled the global industrial production of any one metal in a decade. Forget that we’ve spent trillions of dollars to bring the amount of carbon-based fuel use from 86% to 85% of global energy in a decade. Forget the grift in Washington and that it’s been two years since we spent trillions of dollars on this transition and only built one charging station. Yes, the math is all very… hazy. Gung ho… we hurtle along. Even though Hertz is abandoning its EV fleet, even though it’s mathematically impossible to produce that much metal (especially without Russia’s help)… we are going FORWARD, comrades! They will pretend that the transition is going well… and we’ll pretend we want to eat. Here’s the Problem Regardless of what happens, the votes remain in the hands of the grifting administrative class pushing this forward. All the lawyers have gathered to sue new energy and mineral producers. China owns the entire EV supply chain. And Pete Buttigieg isn’t getting a job anywhere else any time soon. This decarbonization effort is risky because it touches virtually everything in our lives. Food, energy, housing, you name it, this is a backdoor way to increase the role of the administrative state over your life. Will they track your carbon footprint? Your smartphone and watch already do. Now - here’s where the story gets interesting. At some point, all of this will come to a head. While all of these mandates continue to press forward - the elimination of gas stoves in new construction, the end of gas-powered automobiles in California, the never-ending reach of agencies over a new issue… There will be a panic. The electricity will go out in Boston. The train system will go dead in a major city. Those regressive thinkers - who don’t realize their policies have created the problem - will double down and argue that we have to move even faster toward the transition. The problem is we cannot procure what we need, and our production capacity has been kept sidelined. Give it three or four years as they push energy prices higher to justify the transition, and we will beg U.S. oil and gas producers to drill. The pendulum of madness will swing back because Americans will not be told what to do, where to travel, what to eat, or what to think.  And definitely not how to invest. Here’s How to Take Advantage of The Decarbonization Collapse There are three ways to take advantage of this massive trend.  First, you can embrace it. And if that’s the case, Brookfield Renewable Properties (BEP) is for you. The company has averaged more than 15% total return over the last two decades, with a specialty focus on large-scale, industrial solar. You know I’m a proponent of battery storage and solar, but the sheer size and scale will not benefit certain regions of the country. Still, Brookfield Renewable is a best-in-class player in the decarbonization movement. We might as well get some of our tax money back. Second, you could do what Warren Buffett does: Buy an oil company working toward carbon capture technologies. It’s fair to say that the free market will eventually find a way to reduce emissions, especially if there are incentives. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) - of which Buffett owns 28% - is now a leader in carbon capture technology and could emerge as one of the biggest winners in the Permian Basin, the crown jewel of U.S. production. In the long term, OXY is poised for significant capital appreciation, and rising oil prices will only help this Buffett favorite. Third, you could shrug at it and just buy the damn midstream pipelines, like I always suggest. We’re large proponents of any major natural gas pipeline operator, pulling fuel out of the Permian Basin and moving it north or east toward the shipping lands. The ClearBridge MLP and Midstream (CTR) fund has experienced significant insider buying from Saba Capital. It trades at an 8% discount to its NAV and offers a dividend of 7.5%. This fund contains great midstream names like Energy Transfer (ET) and Enterprise Product Partners (EPD). Regardless of how much we bark, beg, whine, rationalize, or scream about the impracticality of the Green Transition - the government will double down, triple down, and even more if necessary. It is a perfect excuse to spend money and refinance mountains of existing debt in the future under the guise of an emergency.  My advice: Keep your focus. It’s your tax money. Get some of it back. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer The characters in this “Financial Adventures” are fictitious and based solely on the author’s experiences and knowledge. The economic and financial analysis and research are real and conducted and written by the author for educational purposes. Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()