Postcards: Market's Closed... Unlike Florida?

Planning on buying a house in Florida? It's becoming a buyer's market these days...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Market's Closed... Unlike Florida?]( Planning on buying a house in Florida? It's becoming a buyer's market these days... [Garrett {NAME}]( Jan 15   [READ IN APP](   “I can't believe that Price prefers McDermott's card to mine.” Dear Fellow Expat: The market’s closed on Monday, but that doesn’t alter the fact that things are heating up to start the week. Here in the Florida Republic, one can’t help but notice that auto traffic isn’t as busy this January “season” as previous ones. Meanwhile, local home values, says my realtor neighbor, in the Southwest, are softening… It’s now becoming a buyer’s market. After a three-year frenzy… [dare I say that Florida is open again?]( No… It’s still not. Florida is closed. But… Long gone are the sight-unseen home purchases… The four-five bid competition… Or when newcomers hop off the plane and buy the first house that they see… Has supply and demand finally reached a balance? Or, perhaps the pressure on mortgage holders has hit a new level to pay the bills... So, is this the beginning of something? We’re about to find out later this week. What else is on tap? [Upgrade to paid]( Monday, January 15, 2024 Event: U.S. Markets Closed for Martin Luther King Day, World Economic Forum Begins Republic Speak: You’ve got 1,000 financial journalists running around Davos today, covering about 1,000 delegates. Anything to fit in… I guess. For the 42nd year in a row, I will not engage in the PT Barnum antics of Klaus Schwab. While they eat caviar and [spend thousands on prostitutes]( I’ll be working on trade ideas if we finally get an Equity Strength Signal that turns negative. But I will be keeping a close eye on the speeches so that I have a general sense of what anti-democratic plans they want to set in motion to “save democracy.” Tuesday, January 16, 2024 Event: Earnings from Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS). “Look at that subtle off-white coloring. The tasteful thickness of it. Oh my God, it even has a watermark...” Republic Speak: It’s one of those names… the stock sells off, [hits the third standard deviation band]( and then rockets back. Goldman Sachs is a day trader’s stock on earnings day. Aside from that, I don’t have much to say about the company except that I miss the [Goldman Sachs Elevator Twitter]( Feed and [learned not to trust the company AT ALL with its energy forecasts](. If Goldman says that oil is going higher… it’s going lower. Let’s see what they say about the economy for 2024… they’re probably betting on the opposite outcome. Wednesday, January 17, 2024 Event: OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report Republic Speak: The energy sector has been under severe pressure over the last month, except for the pops we’ve seen in recent days. The current tensions around the Red Sea have reintroduced the Geopolitical Premium in the oil markets. But that’s not likely a sustainable factor - and Wednesday will either gut those gains - or we’ll see some level of confidence reemerge from the CTAS and hedge funds that had been selling aggressively back in late September when we were discussing[the counter-narrative](. Don’t guess. Follow our [Equity Strength Signal]( on the energy sector, and learn [how to trade Valero (VLO)](. This comes a day before the International Energy Agency publishes its Monthly Oil Market Report, which isn’t as important as what OPEC has to say. But both will move prices. Thursday, January 18, 2024 Event: Costco (COST) Annual Meeting Republic Speak: This is the first annual meeting in 12 years without Craig Jelinek as the CEO. He stepped down on January 1, with Ron Vachris taking over. In what shouldn’t surprise anyone in a post-COVID world, Vachris was elevated from the role of Chief Operating Officer. There’s always chatter that FedEx (FDX) is the bellwether for the economy, but Costco is an excellent indicator of the health of the U.S. consumer. The company had an excellent earnings report in December, as more Americans turn to the wholesaler for essentials. Friday, January 19, 2024 Event: December Existing Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment Index Republic Speak: As I noted above, we must pay attention to existing home sales nationwide (not just here in Florida). November, existing home sales increased by 0.8% after a five-month decline. With interest rates dropping, we’ll see if Americans pick up. And the latest uptick of inflation might send many people off the sideline instead of waiting for later this spring to start buying again. We’ll be back tomorrow with the [Republic Risk Letter]( Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()