Postcards: They're Trying to "Drive Me Mad"

CNBC does this every single month... and it's wrong! Can someone please - for the love of all that is holy - contact them and make them stop.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: They're Trying to "Drive Me Mad"]( CNBC does this every single month... and it's wrong! Can someone please - for the love of all that is holy - contact them and make them stop. [Garrett {NAME}]( Jan 13   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: It can’t get any more “Yellow” for our readings, as the number of Russell stocks down 10% and the number of stocks up 10% in a week is very close - signaling a solid rotation of capital. I’d argue that without the geopolitical pop from energy prices, we’d see much more air coming out of this bubble. We are sitting in a lot of cash but are enjoying the January gains from our Republic Risk shipping stocks. Dear Fellow Expat: Everyone has that little tick. The little thing. That when you hear it… or see it… do you want to scream? Maybe it’s the friend who pronounces the word “Espresso” as… Expresso. Or the cousin who says “Nuke-you-lar” instead of “nuclear.” Or the people who think a Lie Detector or a polygraph test is a foolproof method of determining truth or falsehood. For me… it’s the same article that comes out on CNBC every month. Dall-E - An Alligator in a Straight Jacket Watching CNBC Just like today in a review of the Producer Price Index. [Upgrade to paid]( “Wholesale” Every month, CNBC covers the Producer Price Index, a quarterly “inflation” gauge that typically arrives the day after the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Here’s the headline from today. See if you can spot the problem with it. Give up? PPI is not an accurate measure of “wholesale prices.” In fact, the PPI hasn’t measured “wholesale prices” since the Carter Administration. PPI is a gross income measurement at the front of the supply chain around things like raw goods, services, and construction. More importantly, it specifically tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. This is important - it’s reflective of sellers - not buyers… and not consumers. Depending on taxes, transportation costs, and trading margins, those prices can also be impacted downstream. As noted, prices stretch across various production stages - not just wholesale but also manufacturing, mining, and services. Most of these elements aren’t part of the wholesale market. Wholesale prices generally refer to the cost of goods sold in bulk and typically finished products. In addition, [as Alan Reynolds notes at CATO]( there's little evidence that the PPI measures directly impact what end consumers pay because they include payments from foreign governments and businesses - not just American consumers. Simply put, the PPI is not a strong forward indicator of future CPI readings. An oil exporter in the Southeast U.S. sending crude to Asia doesn't truly impact the full price of raincoats produced in the Northwest that use plastic chemicals... Yet, I’m sure that CNBC will return with yet another rendition of the same headline that has run repeatedly. I need to start a Change.org petition. Otherwise, I’ll need to look for real estate with padded walls. I’ll be back tomorrow with a breakdown of the week ahead. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()