Postcards: Steak Lunch and Oil Stocks

Tech squeezes higher, but things that matter are falling off a cliff.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Steak Lunch and Oil Stocks]( Tech squeezes higher, but things that matter are falling off a cliff. [Garrett {NAME}]( Jan 8   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: Don’t get comfortable with today’s technology pop. The S&P 500 is rising today - and so is the Nasdaq 100 - on VERY light volume. The SPY relative volume is at .67x, and the QQQ is at .74. This is a light volume compared to the usual amount of equity trading. I’m worried that the market is about to head much lower. Stay cautious. Selling pressure is VERY high on the energy side. Oil producers and refineries are taking a hit. Valero (VLO), our top energy stock to trade, is off another 1% today. Not shocking, given that our energy signal is negative. Add that to the fact that other good companies are selling off—names like Devon Energy (DVN), Halliburton (HAL), and Ovintiv (OVV). If any of these companies fall into a combination of oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI), sell put spread about 10% lower than current prices. It’s a great trade - and you’d want to own these companies for the long term anyway. Dear Fellow Expat, Amelia is sick. A cranky kid. Before my wife and daughter return to school tomorrow, I decided we should have a nice steak lunch. Nothing over the top. Just ribeye in the air fryer. My daughter had six popsicles for lunch instead. It cost $18… not bad. But not great. I wish there were a sale. I’d love to buy the same steak for - say - 50 cents on the dollar. While that might not be possible in the grocery store… it is in the equity markets. Let me show you a list of inexpensive stocks… and some insight on how to buy them. It Already Happened Today, the market had a low-volume squeeze. To know how this traditionally ends, look at the top patterns from January 2022, April 2022, June 2022, August 2022, February 2023, and August 2023. It always goes the same way. A sharp selloff… a slight squeeze, and then a big drop. I can’t guarantee that we’ll repeat this sequence, but with bank stocks overbought, my money is on “Red.” That said, I did a new screen. Yesterday, I discussed how Tim Melvin and I talk about stocks and incorporate our favorite metrics to create a great list. Tim loves a high Z score; I love a high ROIC, and we both like high F scores and are always interested in the price-to-Graham metrics. That brings us to this list. These are real companies… making real things. The entire slate of opportunity is in the energy space right now. We have a handful of names already recommended in the Republic Risk portfolio. We also have Valero and HF Sinclair, which we will trade when the energy sector signal turns positive. Now, I’m content to give this away for free today - but in February, we’ll add whatever new stocks are added to the screeners. A week ago, Teekay (TK) was at the top of the list, and the stock is already up 9%. We will have a great year - because we focus on stocks with limited downside and big upside. So… join us. [Upgrade to paid]( You’ll get DAILY letters with all the insider buying, stock recommendations, and Equity Readings… I’m slowly raising the price as my marketing team takes over. They are now pushing for $1,000 a year. But if you join as a founding member right now at $250, you will never pay an annual fee over that level. And next week, the price will jump to $350 as we start talking to RIAs about a deal. So - do it. Join our community. You are VERY welcome to be a part of this inner circle, and you’ll always enjoy being on the right side of the market. That’s what we do. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()