Postcards: Why The New York Jets Are Like Carnival Cruise Line Stock

We're delaying the 1993 series because today's a day to spend with family and have a deeper conversation with Tim Melvin about what to expect in 2024.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Postcards: Why The New York Jets Are Like Carnival Cruise Line Stock]( We're delaying the 1993 series because today's a day to spend with family and have a deeper conversation with Tim Melvin about what to expect in 2024. [Garrett {NAME}]( Dec 24   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: We’ll move Part 3 to Tuesday, December 26. Be sure to catch up on [Part 1]( or [Part 2.]( Today’s a good day for football, family, and food. I don’t need to distract you long today with a long story about events that happened 30 years ago. Plus, I don’t want to be a source of argument during Christmas. As I’ve said before - [the worst thing is that people can tell their girlfriends]( or family about their fantasy football teams. But here I am - in the semifinals of my casual league as my brother's partner. I’ll make this fast… because there’s a way to make money here. [Upgrade to paid]( Bad Football or Bad Stocks Can Be Profitable The entire season for my absurd fantasy football team and my competitor comes down to significant exposure today to the Washington Commanders against the New York Jets. That’s right. We’re talking about the worst defense in the league (Washington) against the worst offense (New York). But - strangely - my competitor started Washington’s quarterback, and I have the Jets defense. He also has Washington’s defense. I can’t believe I have to worry about this game… This will be a terrible football game that few people will watch. But it matters to us because - after all this work we did all season - we may find ourselves in the finals if the worst NFL game of the day falls our way. I want to stress something. We don’t have control over how the chips fall in football… just like we don’t in these financial markets. But we control how we play this market - and what we buy when the [Equity Strength Signals turn positive](. The New York Jets - the worst team in the AFC - are like the professional sports version of Carnival Cruise Line (CCL) - an awful consumer discretionary company that continues to trade on the whims of momentum - and not on their underlying balance sheet. I draw particular attention to Carnival’s stock chart over 2023. Because once you see how it trades on momentum… you’ll never unsee it. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Founding Members]( will lock in their price forever… and get the How-To Guide with the upcoming [Republic Risk Model Portfolio](. This offer is going away this week, and the Republic Risk letter cost will be much higher in 2024. I kept the price cheap so everyone who came over with us from Money Map Press could lock in before 2024. And remember, our podcast will start the first week of January. [You can sign up now.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- The New York Jets of Cruise Lines There’s not a lot to like about Carnival Cruise Line as a company. It’s unprofitable. It trades roughly 3.5 times book value and barely pays a dividend (0.2%). It operates on the whims of consumer spending when Americans are hitting a wall. Hedge funds hate this stock, as the short float represents 11% of the total float. Its ugly fundamentals are part of why over 100 million shares are being shorted. Yet, here it is. Despite losing $74 million and a debt-to-equity ratio of (checks notes) 4.63x!!! - this terrible company has been a Christmas gift all year long. CCL stock is up 137% since January - rocketing off the back of increased global liquidity, rate cut expectations, and a bottoming in international market conditions in October 2022. But 137% is nothing if you know how to trade a name like CCL properly and reversion momentum. Much like the Jets’ defense, we only use the name at specific times. I might only play this terrible team’s defense a few times yearly in football. In the market, I would have only traded Carnival’s stock at exact times - when our Strength Signal turned positive]( and sold the stock when its MACD turned negative. Here’s the chart… You can see positive turns on the Daily MACD reading (the line at the bottom of the chart), aligned closely with positive Equity Signal Strength movements three times in 2023. We’re focused on five week-returns after January 3, June 1, and November 6. Again… pay VERY close attention to the five-week performance of the stock after the Equity Strength Signal went positive on January 3, June 1, and November 6. Let’s measure the stock's performance until it experiences a negative crossover on the MACD. - From January 3 to February 9, CCL stock gained… 49.6% - From June 1 to July 12, CCL gained 70.5%. - And from November 6 until Friday… shares added… 55%. Now, remember that gains compound. So, a trader could have gained 49.6% in January, rolled the money over into the following position in June, which gained 70.5%, and then rolled that over into the final positive signal in November, which gained 55%. That turns $1,000 into $3,953.55, compared to $2,370 as a long-term buy and hold. That’s a 293.55% gain - in roughly 18 weeks. Of course - there are tax implications, right? However, the gains realized from the multiple trades outpace short-term income compared to long-term buy and hold of this bottom-of-the-barrel company. It’s a terrible company… much like the Jets are bad at sports. But when appropriately timed, it can pay off handsomely. We’ll dig much deeper into how to use our signals to time short squeezes and trade names like Carnival, [Beyond Meat (BYND)]( and others that shouldn’t even be public companies (Thanks, Federal Reserve). Now, if you’ll excuse me… [I need to talk to Tim about event]( in the 1990s for more color in Tuesday’s piece, and we’ll discuss our expectations for the year ahead. I’ll share some insights from our conversation on Wednesday. I hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} You're currently a free subscriber to [Postcards from the Florida Republic](. For the full experience, [upgrade your subscription.]( [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2023 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()