Postcards from the Florida Republic: "Stop Trying to Make Hydrogen Happen."

We talk about the Week Ahead, my idea for a series of small airport bars, why Mean Girls is on my mind, and what to expect from Micron earnings.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Postcards from the Florida Republic: "Stop Trying to Make Hydrogen Happen."]( We talk about the Week Ahead, my idea for a series of small airport bars, why Mean Girls is on my mind, and what to expect from Micron earnings. [Garrett {NAME}]( Dec 17   [READ IN APP](   Editor’s Note: Republic Research is all about risk management. This is why we created the Republic Risk Letter. And there’s one event that is now on our radar for 2024 that investors must explore right now. [Watch this critical presentation right here.]( Plus get your free report: [The Portfolio Reset](. Dear Fellow Expat: This morning, the Elf on the Shelf gave my daughter a nice “Chocolate” spoon for hot chocolate a day after getting tangled up in dental floss. We’re really slowing down the creativity now… Not this bad… though… Then, before lunch, my wife and Amelia dropped me off at the airport. I arrived much faster than expected… and knocked out most of my piece for tomorrow. I sat at the same restaurant table for about 90 minutes, eating the overpriced airport food. At that time, maybe seven people came to the same seat beside me, ordered a double drink of whiskey or scotch, slammed it, and paid at least $28 plus tip for the privilege. The exchange was over in five minutes or less. I noticed it was happening at the bar quite a bit as well. What a business model. But I know that the restaurant pays through the nose in rent. I don’t understand why a person can’t just create a two-by-four kiosk with plastic shot glasses and a bottle of Jack Daniels (and only Jack Daniels) that people can buy and drink before their flights. They’re doing it anyway in these large restaurants. The per-foot rent would be cheaper, and the supplies would be cheap. I’m kidding. We all know there’s some regulatory capture guaranteed to most restaurants in airports – meaning there are only a certain amount of liquor licenses per terminal. Also – they might not be allowed to sell shots. Or they know this was all a bad idea in the first place – but they don’t want to go overboard and make it too obvious by turning the airport into Senor Frogs. I’m sure there’s a loophole, and we should find it. So, if you ever see a man in an alligator suit at the Orlando Airport selling drinks from a bottle of whiskey outside Starbucks, that’s my brother-in-law. It’s $5 per shot. Go have a drink before you depart with the “Later Gator.” Now, let’s get to the week ahead and put everything into Republic Speak. Because I have a date with my favorite Chinese food restaurant in the world at 7 pm tonight in Lutherville, Maryland. [Upgrade to paid]( Monday, December 18, 2023 Event: Bank of America hosts its “Hydrogen Conference.” We’ll get presentations from CF Industries (CF) and Plug Power (PLUG). Republic Speak: The song “Jingle Bell Rock” played while in line at the airport. I can’t listen to that song without thinking of the movie “Mean Girls.” Right after Lindsay Lohan and her three “friends” finish their risqué dance – one of the girls says, “That is so fetch.” Fetch is a word that this character effectively invented and tried to make popular as a term for “cool.” At that point, Rachel McAdams’ character screams, “Gretchen, stop trying to make "fetch" happen. It's not going to happen.” I’m starting to feel the same way about Hydrogen. How long has it been since we’ve heard this will be the miracle cure for all things energy, and yet we’ve watched these alternative energy names like Plug Power collapse from the sky like a flaming Zeppelin? “Stop trying to make Hydrogen happen!”   Tuesday, December 19, 2023 Event: The Bank of Japan hosts its meeting on monetary policy. Republic Speak: The arguments go that we’ll start to see the end of Japan’s negative interest rate policy and changes to monetary policy. But that’s all happening when the nation’s economy is still under pressure, and the demographic challenges haven’t changed. Plus, every time we read that they will raise rates, there’s some emergency liquidity injection two days later. These leaders are very confusing. Wednesday, December 20, 2023 Event: Micron Technology (MU) reports earnings. Republic Speak: Let’s see how often they can mention Artificial Intelligence and the CHIPS Act. I remain bullish. After earnings are released, they’ll have a conference call in the evening. Look for Qualcomm to move in a very close relationship to MU price moves. There’s a relatively high correlation between the two. Thursday, December 21, 2023 Event: Carnival Cruise Line (CCL) earnings, ARK Invest (ARKK) has its December mARKet webinar. Republic Speak: I don’t care about Carnival’s earnings. I care about the momentum of this stock in positive Equity and negative Equity signal environments. Nothing has changed about this company’s outlook in the last six weeks, yet it’s up more than 48% since our signal turned positive during the first week of November. When that Equity Signal turns negative again (and it will since nothing lasts forever), CCL will plunge from the sky. Second, we have Cathie Wood, who just enjoyed a record month. So, we can understand, as usual, that Wood’s ETF performance is completely based on monetary policy expectations. Also, whoever created the “Fund mARKet Update” name for the webinar should be led to one office where they are promoted. Then they are led to a second office, where they are promoted twice in 10 minutes by someone who says “mARKet Update is so Fetch!”. Then, they are led to a side door of the building that leads them outside, where they find all their stuff in a box with a note that says, “You’re fired.” [Upgrade to paid]( Friday, December 22, 2023 Event: Consumer Sentiment, Durable Goods, and PCE Reports Republic Speak: I'm not going to lie. I don’t like a data day like this heading into a three-day weekend, but volume should be low. This is a good day for reversion momentum if trading with the Bollinger Bands. Consumer Sentiment and PCE should align with expectations, especially with Christmas shopping wrapping up. But it’s that durable goods number that pains me. Economists collectively expect November to produce an uptick while warning out Boeing’s output. I can’t see this, but I’m not betting against this market. There are trillions of dollars in the money markets – and rate cuts would pull a lot of money out of the repo markets. There’s still ample cash on the sideline, so ride the wave until it breaks. This could be at least another few weeks before we get any sort of real turbulence. Be sure to read my recap of the market from yesterday with more insight into just how strong and [overbought this market remains](. And [make sure you check out this warning]( on the state of the markets – and get a copy of [Porter Stansberry’s free report](. Tomorrow, we’re taking a time machine back to 1993 to discuss the origins of our cost of living crisis. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense You're currently a free subscriber to [Postcards from the Florida Republic](. For the full experience, [upgrade your subscription.]( [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2023 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()