Postcards: Elf on the Oil Shelf

With my wife sick, I now need to come up with an idea for this ridiculous elf that has troubled me this Holiday season. Meanwhile, we're watching the Guyana oil shelf and Venezuela tensions                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Postcards: Elf on the Oil Shelf]( With my wife sick, I now need to come up with an idea for this ridiculous elf that has troubled me this Holiday season. Meanwhile, we're watching the Guyana oil shelf and Venezuela tensions [Garrett {NAME}]( Dec 7   [READ IN APP](   Editor’s Note: Porter Stansberry is known for making bold predictions that cut against the mainstream, “approved” narrative. He predicted the 1998 emerging market crisis, the 2007 financial crisis, the bankruptcy of General Motors, the loss of America’s AAA-credit rating, and the recent wave of banking collapses. On December 12, Porter [will share a shocking new prediction]( that he considers one of the most important of his 25-year career.  [Check it out here](. Dear Fellow Expat: I love the Christmas season. But I will tell you the two things I will not miss. First. Elf on the Shelf. I’m not sure who came up with this totalitarian nonsense, but if I trip over this elf one more time, I’m putting it into a cannon. Two nights ago, the Elf made a “Shoe Shoe” train – and then I couldn’t find my other shoe when it was time to run an errand. Today, the Elf is up on the wall. I’m unsure what’s coming next, but this elf belongs in a box in a crawl space. It creeps me out. I’m very skeptical of anything that’s “Watching you.” Whether it’s a deity or the government, we don’t like looking over our shoulders. We don’t tell our daughter that Santa Claus keeps a list and checks it twice. I don’t need to add Lily the Creepy Smiling Elf to that list. The second thing I will not miss: This forsaken Lego Advent calendar. The little things drive me crazy, and these tiny Christmas Lego sets are a source of needless anxiety. It’s a very bad time. Zero stars. Neither my wife nor I want to do them – so we have reached a point where we try to get Amelia to forget it’s there. I know we’re supposed to make memories, but the only ones I have so far involve banging my head against the table whenever I drop one of these Lego pieces. We’re just a few days away from her Birthday. That’s when she gets her first field hockey stick (don’t worry, I have one, too), so I’ll be chasing this kid – literally with a stick – around the yard for the next decade. I know what the field hockey stick will also be good for come December 26. Smashing Legos. Speaking of smashed. Let’s talk about the oil market. [Upgrade to paid]( Oil Under Pressure, When Do We Buy? Over at [Republic Risk Letter,]( our Equity Strength Signal for the energy sector has been negative since October 23. Crude prices remain under severe stress due to concerns about demand in the United States and China. The energy sector is the only negative sector right now, and it’s the only one that didn’t recover from the oversold S&P 500 in late October. There are a lot of odd geopolitical stories happening across the world right now. In addition to threats to invade Guyana, Venezuela has arrested 13 people and accused them of being agents of Exxon Mobil (XOM). The U.S. is now mounting military exercises with the Guyana government – potentially dragging us into another conflict. In Washington, the U.S. Defense Secretary is also threatening to send U.S. troops to fight in Ukraine unless Congress magically writes a blank check. Russian President Vladimir Putin has traveled to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to push for further oil production cuts. Iran, meanwhile, is boosting its production, intending to reach 3.6 million barrels by March 2024. Something is up. Something significant. It’s OPEC+ against the United States, and This all comes as Chinese oil import levels fell into an annual decline. And U.S. manufacturing numbers continue to trend downward, which is bearish for oil. Recall what we said on [November 8 in the Republic Risk Letter](. “Add to lubes as well: bitumen, petchem feedstock, aromatics (benzene/toluene/xylene), olefins (ethylene/propylene), and fuel for long haul shipping. That’s 20% of oil demand. If that is off 20%, that’s a 4 million barrel per day reduction in oil demand.” There’s still a lot of pressure in the sector. But there is good news. From a technical standpoint, it looks like we’re fast approaching oversold territory. [Upgrade to paid]( When Do We Buy? Once again, we’re watching MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETN (NYSEArca: NRGU). This ETN tracks an index of securities and trades on a major exchange. A triple-leveraged ETN is designed to move three times as much as the index it tracks. In the case of NRGU, it offers triple-leveraged exposure to the underlying performance of the Solactive MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index. The Solactive MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index measures the performance of the largest ten oil and gas companies. We're talking Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Pioneer Natural Resources Company(PXD), EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG), Phillips 66 (PSX), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC). If you watch the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI) of the NRGU, you can get a clear view of the defined range for oil. Institutional investors often take profits and cover their short positions when we approach oversold or overbought conditions.  Specifically, when the RSI dips below 30, it's an optimal time to sell bull put spreads or consider purchasing call options. As you can see, we’re fast approaching that level — and that’s where I think we’ll find a bottom. The RSI hit 34 today. It feels like we’re getting close to a bottom here. And if we do, it will be time to focus on several long-term names like Crescent Energy (CRGY), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Permian Resources (PR). Be patient and stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense PS: As I said yesterday, check out Porter Stansberry’s prediction on December 12. [You can get all the details right here](. You're currently a free subscriber to [Postcards from the Florida Republic](. For the full experience, [upgrade your subscription.]( [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2023 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()