Postcards: Red Meat, Blue Crabs, and Republic Speak on Disney Earnings

We recover from Meat Day, talk about the best week for the market in a year, and break down what would happen if Disney remade and ruined "Back to the Future." All that... and The Week Ahead.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Postcards: Red Meat, Blue Crabs, and Republic Speak on Disney Earnings]( We recover from Meat Day, talk about the best week for the market in a year, and break down what would happen if Disney remade and ruined "Back to the Future." All that... and The Week Ahead. [Garrett {NAME}]( Nov 5   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: Don’t check my cholesterol levels. I awoke from a sluggish slumber after attending Meadowvale Meat Day in Stevenston, MD (a splendid dietary affair). I’ve eaten so much blue crab and red meat in the last two days that I may set off the sprinkler system if I visit an endocrinologist. I arrived in the Florida Republic a few minutes ago (no Wi-Fi from Delta, but no [religious revival via Southwest](. 26.339648, -81.77899 As you know, I closely watch consumers when I’m on the road. The Delta Sky Club in Atlanta was packed… The seafood restaurant in Towson, MD – charging $10 per XL steamed crab – also filled… door to door. I saw more Lexus and Land Rovers in traffic than Honda HR-Vs or Toyota Rav4. Hotels were sold out… and even the bowling alley lot was full. I’ve long expected consumers to hit a wall just keeping up with the Joneses… But that event hasn’t happened… Plus, it’s rude to ask a 30-year-old man in a suit with a six-figure electric Ford Lightning – “Hey, bud… Where’d you get all your money?” So, based on the unshakable ability of the consumer to keep spending even in the face of weak economic data, I must wonder if a magical money fountain exists somewhere in the central Maryland farmland… I’ll let you know if I find it during our Thanksgiving return… [Upgrade to paid]( Rules of the Republic During my fourth meat course yesterday, I met a doctor from Kentucky. We discussed Bourbon trails, broad economic events, and must-read books on investing. He took an interest in the Florida Republic. Meat Lunch in the Republic So, I shared some of our basic rules for investors and our team in the Republic (we’ll discuss the social rules later.) Since we have a lot of new people joining us in recent weeks, let’s share a reminder. The Florida Republic is truly a state of mind for independent investors. We have very simple investment rules here. - We feel zero guilt about getting rich. Go, get wealthy. - Mind your own business and keep your hands to yourself. - No Gimmicks: We’re radically transparent about top strategies - Avoid unnecessary debt… it’s a weight on financial freedom. - Always stay informed - set aside time to study ideas.          - Never be the man without a chair when the music stops (Follow momentum and insider buying activity.)      - Be Skeptical (always qualify every opportunity.)              - Go macro to micro with every investment and trade.        - Own well-priced companies with sound fundamentals, low debt, and management that puts your interest first for the long term. - Buy on the sound of cannons. Sell on the sound of trumpets. We’ll discuss what each means in future posts. For now, please familiarize yourself with the Rules of the Republic. We’ll also discuss sportscoat requirements and the importance of owning stamps when writing a handwritten letter is necessary. [Upgrade to paid]( Checking In on the Markets With markets in oversold territory heading into last Saturday, I [explained how markets]( tend to squeeze. The last five days – the strongest move for the market in a year – was the result. The Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF (TNA) – a leveraged ETF that returns triple the performance of the Russell 2000 – increased by more than 20% in five days. The big move came late Thursday/Friday after the signal changed. There were plenty of factors contributing to that move. The Fed didn’t raise interest rates for the second straight meeting (more funds believe it’s done raising rates now.) The 10-year bond fell from 5% to under 4.5% in five days (we discussed Bill Ackman and Stanley Druckenmiller’s comments last week on the subject – but covering picked up… The Bank of Japan announced more stimulus… the U.S. Treasury’s projected debt figures for Q4 were [lower than previous projections (]( a boost to liquidity expectations), and the jobs report suggested that we’re starting to see some weakness emerge. I’ve noted that these market conditions eerily like 2018]( – but we’ll continue to follow our signals. On Wednesday, we had positive shifts in the daily MACD reading on the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500. These readings can be reliable buy signals from beaten-down conditions after a selloff. Our Russell 2000 Equity Strength signal turned positive on Thursday. Signals opened positive for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the jobs report on Friday. We’ll see if this is the actual start of a rally. This week, the markets will have their eyes on a single chart. Can tech stocks continue their rebound and lead the market higher? The Nasdaq 100 chart below is very important to watch. Source: Bespoke, Syz Group The support and resistance lines above showcase the negative channel of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) since July 2023. This is a trend. The Nasdaq 100 has moved lower several times… bounced out of oversold territory, and moved back to a key resistance line. Then, it’s turned right around – following a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The Bulls will need to break that critical top resistance line. If it can’t, and we turn back downward, don’t be stunned to see the media narrative shift. The sentiment will go from “relief over more rate hikes… to concerns about economic conditions” as financial media attempt to explain index movements based on the quotes they receive from narrative shapers. Now, let’s put other important events this week into Republic Speak. Monday, November 6 Event: Earnings from Diamondback Energy (FANG). Republic Speak: Here in the Florida Republic, [we love the Permian Basin]( – the Texas-based oil-and-gas formation responsible for massive U.S. crude and natural gas output. It’s a great source of profits. From Permian Resources (PR) to Earthstone Energy (ESTE) from [Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to Exxon Mobil (XOM)]( we’ve been trading and investing in this sector since the first quarter, right before the massive storm of mergers and acquisitions hit the region. We focus on these names as investments and trades in positive energy strength conditions (which have largely weakened since the start of October despite the Middle East conflict). One name I’ve largely ignored is Diamondback Energy (FANG), which is one of the region's biggest players. It’s not a bad company – it’s just not attracted to the recent insider and activist buying activity we follow. But after its 23% run this year, it’s worth consideration. And will they be an acquirer or takeover target? Tuesday, November 7 Event: Speeches from Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid, New York President John Williams, and Dallas President Lorie Logan. Republic Speak: A bunch of people who should be looking for work after they mismanaged inflation – will be looking for jobs as University Presidents in the future. These speeches give us a glimpse into the future and how they will talk at commencements - [in riddles]( Wednesday, November 8 Event: Walt Disney (DIS) Earnings Republic Speak: Walt Disney… the belabored entertainment giant that has ruined our childhoods with remakes of classic animated films that now push a dull social agenda… will report earnings. I’m more interested in what Disney plans to do with ESPN as a business – and whether it will spin off. But also expect chatter about Kathleen Kennedy, the Disney film executive recently lampooned by South Park for her flawed creative decisions and ability to destroy characters. My concern is that Disney sells ESPN and then uses the cash to buy the Intellectual Property of 1980s classic movies for “woke” remakes. Can you imagine if they bought the IP of Back to the Future and decided to “reimagine” that franchise? Here’s what it would probably sound like… - In the Disney remake of Back to the Future, the now-female lead character “Martee” goes back in time to convince her mother not to have children so that the mom can pursue a law degree and become Mayor of Hill Valley. - In the sequel, Doc Brown will now be a time-traveling social justice advocate who – with Martee’s help - stops the Mayflower from landing at Plymouth Rock, Massachusetts, in 1620 by striking the boat with a bolt of lightning. It's funny… until you realize they’d think this is a good idea. Thursday, November 9 Event: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends and speaks at the IMF's annual conference. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey talk, too. Republic Speak: Get ready for the lamest game show of the year. Central bankers from around the globe attempt to convince everyone that their policies are not responsible for the ruinous levels of debt and inflation that have hammered us for years. They’ll blame consumers… labor unions… corporations… or COVID… They’ll never look inward. Ever. We anticipate that there will need to be a deeper conversation about the weakening economic data around the globe and the impact of monetary policy. Germany’s economy is flashing recession after negative Flash GDP numbers happened thanks to falling consumption. The nation’s inflation data hit a two-year low, and retail sales are off. The Eurozone is sitting at two-year lows on inflation, credit demand is slumping, and bank lending is bad. The U.S. saw weak labor and wage data on top of lousy manufacturing data. China’s manufacturing numbers are soft as well. But it’ll all be rosy on Thursday. Jobs must be protected. Friday, November 10 Event: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index… Republic Speak: As I noted, the consumer looks healthy wherever I travel, but I pay close attention to the Consumer Sentiment Index. Perhaps they’ll tell us if they are privately drowning in debt. This Tweet caught my attention on Saturday. I’m sure you know people like this. It’s an excellent time to have cash and little debt. Perhaps we’ll see a lot of Land Rovers at used car lots soon. X user CarDealershipGuy revealed this week that Google searches for “Give Car Back” are at all-time highs… while 17% of Americans face auto loans north of $1,000. X user CarDealershipGuy, Syz Group Interesting times are ahead. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Finance Sign Up on Substack You're currently a free subscriber to [Florida Republic Capital](. For the full experience, [upgrade your subscription.]( [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2023 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()