Postcards... from the Third Ring of Hell

An observation from the unhealthiest place on earth... the Maryland State Fair. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards... from the Third Ring of Hell]( An observation from the unhealthiest place on earth... the Maryland State Fair. [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Sep 1 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   Postcards from the Maryland Fair… or The Third Ring of Hell… Welcome to the new Republic Research theme… and check out the new header… Dear Fellow Expat: Somewhere around 1 pm on Saturday, I made a huge mistake. My daughter and I boarded the Maryland State Fair “Swing Ride.” We lifted some 20-30 feet off the ground, and the carousel began. Within five seconds, everything wrong with my equilibrium accelerated. Nausea… vertigo… and acrophobia… all hit my central nervous system at once. The ride lasted about three minutes. It felt like an eternity. I shut my eyes as my daughter clung to my arm. And I realized… at that moment… if hell does exist… this is it. Just a timeless chasm of swinging in a circle, suspended over a massive parking lot full of cotton candy vendors and the smell of cooked turkey legs. The failing transmission of neurotransmitters like glutamate to my inner ear fueled an intense wave of illness that can only be described at that moment. I can’t describe it here because I simply don’t want to relive it. That’s what you get at the Maryland State Fair… better known as the third ring of hell. But with this visit, I realized another thing about national security and a profit strategy that capitalizes on an unstoppable trend. [Upgrade to paid]( A Portrait of “Generation Sick” I’m traveling to Washington this week for a roundtable with publishers and financial experts. I’ve been asked to provide a sense of my worldview and opportunities on the horizon. I don’t plan on discussing the subject that I’ll highlight today. But I want to mention it now since it’s on my mind. Here at Republic Research - we call it “Generation Sick.” It is a systemic trend that has caused serious health problems for generations. It fuels a new slate of social, economic, and military insecurity problems. Yesterday, at the Maryland State Fair, I was reminded of the nutritional problems with American food and diet. I saw kids as young as five or six suffering from what I can only describe as childhood obesity. It makes sense when you visit the sheer amount of sugar and deep-fried whatever they sell in droves at this event. And in every gas station in America. The nation is a giant sugar factory wrapped in a corn dog and saturated in fat and grease. All that went through my head while watching people stumble around the attractions with gallon-sized lemonades and fried dough… sounded like the following… Step right up, folks, and take a dare, To taste the nightmare at the Fair! We got funnel cakes in a sugar heap, Deep-fried and crisp, to clog you deep. Corn dogs in grease and extra thick, Wrapped in a batter, it’ll make you sick. Buttery popcorn, big ol’ tub, Lathered in a sludge that they call “love.” Turkey legs are as big as your arm, no joke, Covered in glaze like a barbecue smoke. Got fried Oreos, Snickers, and pies, The kinda sweet that’ll blur your eyes. Everything’s fried, dipped, and rolled in sugar, Enough to make your arteries tug a little quicker. You leave with a smile and a stomach full of grease, And a little voice saying, “Rest in peace.” I couldn’t help but feel a much deeper worry about this. And it hit me… as we left. I realized how serious this is… what’s really wrong at the macro level. Behind this cotton candy stand that sold chocolate-covered apples and funnel cakes was a recruitment station for the Army National Guard. The recruitment stand is visible on the left side of this image. The Army National Guard wasn’t the only one trying to find a needle in a haystack - at a time when their enrollments were sluggish and finding healthy recruits was difficult. While at the fair, I saw recruitment stations for the U.S. Army, Maryland State Police, Transit Authority Police, County Police, and plenty of other first-responder categories. If I’m an agency… I can’t help but feel that this is the wrong place to meet “Mr. or Ms. Right.” So… what does this mean for our services? Prepare for A New Form of Warfare I’ve been re-reading the book “Gods and Generals” by Jeff Shaara. The book starts a few years before the U.S. Civil War. In the prologue, the author makes an important note about technology’s role in the record carnage of this war. The Civil War was the first major war where advanced military technology—like rifled muskets, ironclads, and railroads—greatly increased the scale of carnage. These innovations, combined with outdated tactics, resulted in unprecedented casualties, marking a deadly shift in warfare's impact on soldiers and civilians alike. The Civil War led to future tactical changes in warfare. Effectively, the improved quality of our weaponry would later force us to re-examine the military approaches to using humans on the battlefield. But now? We may be looking at the opposite. Roughly 160-odd years later, the U.S. military has to readjust its military strategy not because of weapons… but because of its inability to recruit enough healthy soldiers to fill their quotas. About “70% of active-duty service members qualify as either overweight or obese,” according to [American Security Project]( research leader, Courtney Manning (Via [NBC Montana]( reporting). Experts like Manning see obesity as a national security concern. This is a headline from Roll Call in 2023. The numbers are jarring. Among actual applicants, obesity is the top medical disqualifier for would-be soldiers. According to the Stop Obesity Alliance, the failure to meet body standards increased by 70% from 1995 to 2008 alone. This is a major trend affecting investment in one of the most inevitable trends in the world: War. What is the Policy? Instead of addressing the fact that the problem is obviously caused by the American diet, we’re throwing new medications at it. Are we planning to put our troops on Wegovy and Ozempic? I wouldn’t put it past our nation; instead, I focus on the root causes. We blame everyone else for the symptoms (like grocery stores for inflation) instead of tackling the front of the chain that creates our emergencies, ranging from obesity to inflation (lousy food and money printing, respectfully). Why change our thinking? So, I could tell you that this madness's profit opportunity lies in names like AbbVie (ABBV), Novo Nordisk (NVO), and other pharmaceutical companies treating a surge in obesity and insulin resistance. And it makes sense since the government is likely going to authorize GLP-1s for wide scale Medicare spending at some point anyway (it’s covered under Medicare Part D now). But I think people are overlooking the military element of this. [In 2017, the Modern War Institute]( argued that physical fitness isn’t the key to America's winning future wars. They stress the importance of education. However, as the author notes, the U.S. has fallen behind communist Vietnam in most educational metrics. That’s a Department of Education issue… As the article notes, America’s military strategy of the last 20 years has created severe problems due to the before and after elements of our military strategy. The American military is designed for winning on the battlefield, not reconstructing a culturally different nation that lacks either the ability or the will to modernize its society and build Western-style governmental institutions. Unfortunately, as we have seen in Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Libya, the US military is incredibly effective in dismantling the military and political structures of a foreign state, only to see it descend into civil war once official hostilities have ceased. Yeah… well, that’s an issue. The author continues: Moreover, even when American troops on the ground represent the decisive force in future wars, their combat effectiveness will heavily rely on operational dominance in the sea, air, outer space, and cyberspace. And there it is. This is about technological dominance, not physical superiority. The military strategy ahead is one of containment, supporting foreign wars away from America’s shores with the soldiers of other nations and the continued shock and awe. It means more money shoveled to Ukraine, Israel, South Korea, and countless other nations - with fitter troops - to fight our battles. It means that more money will go into missiles, gadgets, drones, and expensive things that blow up far, far away. Remember, the U.S. will continue to spend outrageous sums of money on military operations and provide ample financial support to its contractors when they start to struggle. We aren’t set to change our ways in the future. We’re likely facing renewed challenges in the Red Sea with the Houthis, escalation from Iran and China, and a massive quagmire with Russia. We might not put our boots on the ground, but the technological strategy stands—and so does the money printing. [Follow the military “Too Big to Fail” trend]( I’ve discussed in previous weeks and look for opportunities as they emerge. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. 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