Don’t Be Fooled by This “Market Comeback”

Defensive sectors and the market’s fear gauge aren’t giving the all-clear. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Don’t Be Fooled by This “Market Comeback”]( Defensive sectors and the market’s fear gauge aren’t giving the all-clear. [Josh Belanger](joshbelanger) Aug 9 joshbelanger   [READ IN APP](   Ever hear someone shout "All clear!" only to find yourself right back in the storm? That's what the market feels like right now. Sure, after Monday's sell-off, the S&P 500 clawed its way back. Headlines are celebrating, saying, "Best day since 2022!" But smart investors like us? We know better. Here's the truth: the S&P 500 options market had already priced in a 133-point swing this week. And guess what? We're right in the middle of that range, even after the dust settled. So what does this mean? Sharp rallies and quick sell-offs are part of the game right now. But here’s the kicker: I’m not seeing the signs of a healthy recovery. In fact, there’s a lot that should make you nervous. Look at Consumer Staples—still hugging those highs like a scared kid clinging to their mom's leg. And Utilities? They’re holding at 52-week highs. If this market were truly on the up-and-up, we’d see money rotating out of these safe havens and into riskier tech stocks. When the market is on the mend, money usually flows out of defensive sectors like these and into tech stocks. But that’s not happening. Instead, this rally feels more like a dead cat bounce—a quick rebound before another drop. We’re not out of the woods yet, the S&P 500's fear gauge? It's still elevated, closing at 22. Volatility doesn’t spike like that and then disappear. This pause could be the calm before another storm. Let’s not forget about bond auctions. Despite lower interest rates, demand is up. That’s a sign of caution, not confidence. And then there’s unemployment. Weekly claims are trending higher, signaling a weakening job market. Yet, the excitement in the rally isn’t justified by the underlying data. And then there’s unemployment. Weekly claims are trending higher, signaling a weakening job market. Yet, the excitement in the rally isn’t justified by the underlying data. So, what’s the play here? If things get dicey, look to defensive plays like Procter & Gamble, Costco, Kenvue, and Altria. These aren’t just stocks—they’re your lifeboat when the market gets choppy. Trade smart, Josh Belanger You’re currently a free subscriber. Upgrade for the full experience and receive exclusive special reports like "How to Get Rich in The Stock Market" and "Congress' Secret Stock Playbook: The Top 5 Power Picks Revealed”. [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Josh Belanger 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()