Blood in the Water

Plus: Olympians Drowning in Debt, and Energy Bets for the Future ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Blood in the Water]( Plus: Olympians Drowning in Debt, and Energy Bets for the Future [Josh Belanger](joshbelanger) Aug 8 joshbelanger   [READ IN APP](   Just when you thought the market was catching its breath, it flips again. Stocks clawed back some ground after Monday's sharp sell-off, with the Nasdaq 100 even going unchanged for the week—briefly, that is. The bears weren't having it, though, dragging it right back down. The Roller Coaster Isn’t Over Generated by AI. Why it matters: The market swings are being driven by more than just economic concerns. A [reversal in speculative trades]( combined with rising recession fears and central bank jitters, is fueling uncertainty. While the U.S. isn’t officially in a recession, the [risks are growing](. The details: - Stock Market Jitters: The U.S. markets saw significant swings this week. On Tuesday, stocks tried to recover, but the Nasdaq 100 was quickly pulled back down. Despite the recent rebound, the VIX remains elevated, signaling twice the volatility seen in the past year. - Recession Fears: Economic signals are mixed. Unemployment is ticking up, and long-term bond yields are lower than short-term ones—a classic recession indicator. But experts argue that the U.S. might still achieve a "soft landing," where inflation cools without triggering a deep downturn. - Global Impact: The market turmoil isn’t limited to the U.S. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index saw its biggest drop since 1987 earlier this week, while European markets have also been unstable. Analysts warn that we’re entering a "regime shift" where higher volatility could become the norm. Zoom in: The Bank of Japan’s surprise tightening of monetary policy triggered a global sell-off, exacerbating fears of a broader economic slowdown. Meanwhile, hedge funds and retail investors are scrambling to adjust, further amplifying market swings. Big Picture: While some economists downplay the recession risks, the unpredictable moods of investors and the Fed’s next moves will be crucial. The market’s current state is like standing outside to see if it’s raining—looking at the indicators directly rather than relying on rules of thumb. Bottom Line: Expect more volatility in the coming weeks as markets digest mixed signals. Investors might be in for a bumpy ride, but it’s not time to panic. If you’re worried, sell enough that will allow you to sleep well at night. 🥇 Olympic Dreams, Crushing Debt Generated by AI. For many Olympians, the road to glory is paved with debt. [Anita Alvarez]( of the U.S. artistic swimming team juggles side gigs to stay afloat, surviving on a $2,000 monthly stipend that barely covers her expenses in Los Angeles. Why it matters: While stars like Simone Biles rake in endorsements, most Olympians struggle financially, often going into debt to fund their training and competition. A report found that 26.5% of Olympic hopefuls earn less than $15,000 a year. The Details: - Side Hustles: Athletes like Alvarez balance multiple jobs to cover costs. - Debt Load: Heptathlete Michelle Atherley carries $12,000 in credit-card debt. - Reality Check: Even with medals, many athletes struggle financially long after the Games. Bottom Line: For many, the pursuit of Olympic dreams often comes with a heavy financial burden that lingers long after the spotlight fades. The Power Play: Energy Demand Surges Generated by AI. As AI and tech demand more power, the global thirst for energy is intensifying. Savvy investors are betting big on under appreciated energy assets and utility stocks, anticipating that these sectors will be essential to meet the world's growing needs. Here’s how this trend is shaping up: Why it matters: - Tech-Driven Demand: AI is pushing electricity consumption to new heights, driving a [surge in utility stocks]( as investors look for stable returns in a tech-driven world. - Fossil Fuels Back in Focus: While the spotlight is on green energy, the smart money is positioning itself in [unloved fossil fuel assets]( betting that these reliable sources will remain crucial as the world struggles to meet growing energy needs. - Power as a Lifeline: With extreme heatwaves becoming deadlier, [reliable energy]( is now a matter of survival. States are grappling with keeping the power on, especially for vulnerable populations. The Big Picture: With energy demand set to soar, especially from AI and other tech advancements, betting on undervalued fossil fuels could be a savvy move as they remain essential in a rapidly evolving landscape. Quick Sizzles - Fannie and Freddie Crack Down: New rules will tighten lending standards for multifamily properties as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac respond to fraud concerns. [WSJ]( - Uber's Profit Surge: Uber’s shares soared 11% after reporting a $1.02 billion profit, driven by growth in ride-share and food delivery. [WSJ]( - Bond ETFs Boost Liquidity: The rapid growth of bond ETFs is enhancing market stability, addressing long-standing liquidity fears in the fixed income market. [FT]( - Nvidia’s AI Bubble?: Elliott Management warns that Nvidia’s AI-driven stock surge is overhyped and could burst if demand slows. [FT]( Options Sizzle Today’s Action: Options volume hit 52.1 million contracts, which is in line with recent averages, indicating steady market activity. Here are stocks with notable unusual options activity: - Elanco Animal Health (ELAN): - What happened: 7,000 call options traded—10 times the average daily volume. - Why it matters: 60% of today’s call premium traded on the offer, signaling strong interest from new buyers. This surge in bullish flow suggests traders are betting on a significant upside move in Elanco’s stock. - US Steel (X): - What happened: 11,525 call options traded—1.8 times the expected volume. - Why it matters: Increased call activity indicates bullish sentiment among traders, who may be positioning for a potential rally in US Steel. This could be driven by expectations of strong performance or favorable market conditions in the steel industry. - Monster Beverage (MNST): - What happened: 22,000 put options traded—6 times the average daily volume. - Why it matters: The heavy put buying reflects a bearish outlook on Monster Beverage, with traders potentially hedging against downside risk or anticipating a drop in the stock. This could be due to concerns about earnings, competitive pressures, or broader market trends affecting the beverage sector. You’re currently a free subscriber. Upgrade for the full experience and receive exclusive special reports like "How to Get Rich in The Stock Market" and "Congress' Secret Stock Playbook: The Top 5 Power Picks Revealed”. [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Josh Belanger 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()