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Don’t Call It a Meltdown Yet

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joshbelanger@substack.com

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Mon, Aug 5, 2024 11:56 PM

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Plus: Buffett?s Strategic Selloff and Bitcoin?s Power Play ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Plus: Buffett’s Strategic Selloff and Bitcoin’s Power Play ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Don’t Call It a Meltdown Yet]( Plus: Buffett’s Strategic Selloff and Bitcoin’s Power Play [Josh Belanger](joshbelanger) Aug 5 joshbelanger   [READ IN APP](   This week kicked off with a jolt to the markets… Japan’s worst stock plunge since 1987 set the stage, rippling through global markets and hitting the U.S. hard by Monday. The S&P and Nasdaq opened with sharp declines, dragging down major tech players like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla. Wall Street’s fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index, spiked to its highest level since 2020, reflecting mounting concerns over a potential U.S. economic slowdown. There’s even talk among traders of a possible emergency interest-rate cut from the Fed. But hey, the S&P 500 is still up 9% year-to-date. However, for those who’ve been warning of a hard landing—looks like the chickens might be coming home to roost. $6.4 Trillion Wipeout—Is a Market Bloodbath Next? Generated by AI. Why it matters: Global markets just lost $6.4 trillion in a massive selloff, sparking fears that the economic downturn everyone’s been dreading is finally here. Traders are now questioning if the party is over and if even tougher times are ahead. The Details: On Monday, markets worldwide were hammered. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 12%, the Nasdaq fell 6%, and stocks everywhere tanked. It wasn’t just stocks—cryptos crashed too, and investors scrambled to buy safe U.S. Treasury bonds. This chaos followed disappointing [U.S. job numbers]( weak tech earnings, and Japan’s unexpected [interest rate hikes](. In the U.S., consumer spending is slowing, with companies like McDonald’s and PepsiCo feeling the pinch. Meanwhile, in China, people are also tightening their belts amid fears of a deepening economic slump, as reported by [The Wall Street Journal](. Zoom In: The bond market is flashing serious warning signs, and some experts are drawing comparisons to past market crashes. But this time, the worries are global. With spending slowing in both the U.S. and China, big companies are starting to slash their earnings forecasts. Big Picture: This economic slowdown isn’t just bad news for markets—it could also shake up the upcoming U.S. presidential race, making it a major political issue. As economic pressures build in the U.S. and China, companies and investors are bracing for more turbulence. Bottom Line: The $6.4 trillion market wipeout could be just the beginning. With risks mounting in the world’s biggest economies, a global market meltdown might be closer than we think . Buffett’s $76 Billion Stock Dump: A Warning for Us All? Why it matters: Warren Buffett’s massive selloff, particularly his decision to cut Apple by half, isn’t just about profit-taking—it could be a red flag for the entire market. If the world’s most cautious investor is cashing out, what does he see that we don’t? The Details: In a [stunning $76 billion selloff]( Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ditched $50 billion worth of Apple shares, raking in a $47 billion gain and raising its cash reserves to a historic $277 billion. But this isn’t just a portfolio rebalance—Buffett is signaling that the easy money days might be over. Moving from high-flying stocks to safe Treasuries suggests he’s preparing for a market storm. Zoom In: Buffett has always treated cash as a strategic weapon, not just a placeholder. While Wall Street pushes you to stay invested, Buffett knows that holding cash now means pouncing on bargains later. Big Picture: When the man who famously avoided tech stocks for decades now cuts his biggest tech holding, it’s a signal worth heeding. Buffett’s move could be the canary in the coal mine, warning of a market downturn. If he’s battening down the hatches, maybe it’s time we all should. Bottom Line: Buffett isn’t just selling stocks—he’s buying time and safety. If you’re not paying attention, you might miss the storm he sees coming. Bitcoin vs. Gold: Two Paths to Financial Safety Why it matters: As economic fears rise, investors are split between Bitcoin and gold as their safe havens. Both groups want protection, but they’re choosing different strategies. The Details: - Crypto as the New Gold: At a Bitcoin conference, Trump vowed to make America the "Bitcoin superpower," winning over crypto fans who see digital assets as the future of financial safety. Facing regulatory crackdowns, they’re backing Trump, hoping he’ll ease restrictions. This boost pushed Bitcoin to a six-week high of $70,000. For many, Bitcoin is more than an investment—it’s digital protection against economic instability. [Read more](. - Gold’s Timeless Appeal: Meanwhile, wealthy families are buying gold, worried about U.S. debt and global instability. In the second quarter, gold purchases surged nearly fivefold, driving prices to record highs. As fears grow, gold remains the go-to for those seeking a stable store of value. [Read more](. Zoom In: Both groups are reacting to the same economic worries, but their choices—Bitcoin or gold—show different beliefs about the future. Big Picture: This divide highlights different views on financial safety. Whether betting on Bitcoin’s future or gold’s stability, everyone’s looking for protection in uncertain times. Bottom Line: As uncertainty grows, the debate over the best financial hedge heats up. Bitcoin or gold? Both are about finding safety in a shaky world. Option Sizzle Today’s Action: Options volume hit 56.5 million contracts, 9% above average levels. Puts led calls with a 10 to 9 ratio, signaling a cautious market tone. Here are stocks with notable unusual options activity: - Suncor (SU): - What happened: 13,000 call options traded—6 times the average daily volume. - Why it matters: This large volume of call buying suggests traders are betting on a significant upside move in Suncor’s stock. They’re likely positioning for a high payoff if the stock rises, while risking only the premium paid. - Rocket Companies (RKT): - What happened: 34,000 call options traded—4 times the expected volume. - Why it matters: Bullish positioning in Rocket Companies reflects trader expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed, which could boost their mortgage business. This surge in call activity suggests that traders are anticipating positive momentum for RKT if rates drop. - Cassava Sciences (SAVA): - What happened: 36,500 call options traded—3 times the average. - Why it matters: With shares already up 20% today, traders are betting on even more upside for Cassava Sciences. The company has an upcoming conference call on August 8 to discuss recent developments, and it recently announced plans to extend its open-label extension trials. These buyers are likely anticipating positive news or market reaction, betting on continued momentum. You’re currently a free subscriber. Upgrade for the full experience and receive exclusive special reports like "How to Get Rich in The Stock Market" and "Congress' Secret Stock Playbook: The Top 5 Power Picks Revealed”. [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Josh Belanger 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()

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