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Fed's Election Ploy: Rate Cuts to Save Biden?

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substack.com

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joshbelanger@substack.com

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Fri, Jul 19, 2024 12:05 AM

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Plus: Job Market Jitters, Trump?s Healthcare Gambit, Battery Storage Bonanza, and More. ? ? ?

Plus: Job Market Jitters, Trump’s Healthcare Gambit, Battery Storage Bonanza, and More. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Fed's Election Ploy: Rate Cuts to Save Biden?]( Plus: Job Market Jitters, Trump’s Healthcare Gambit, Battery Storage Bonanza, and More. [Josh Belanger](joshbelanger) Jul 19 joshbelanger   [READ IN APP](   The bears are having a field day with the market's second straight decline. Political drama hogs the headlines, overshadowing market news. With a predicted rate cut in September, investors are playing it safe. Can you blame them? Rate Cut Roulette: Fed Bets on Jobs Over Inflation Generated by AI. The Fed is ready to cut interest rates in September, shifting focus from inflation to job market risks. This marks a significant change in monetary policy. The Details: For two years, inflation was the Fed’s primary concern. Now, with price stability in sight, the focus is on the labor market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his team have hinted at a rate cut after the July policy meeting, depending on inflation trends and job market health. Zoom In: Inflation has eased to 2.6%, and job market indicators show cooling. Unemployment is rising slightly, reaching 4.1% in June. Job openings have dropped to 2019 levels, with hiring slowing. Big Picture: The Fed aims to balance price stability and employment. Powell emphasizes the need to act before the job market weakens significantly. Political pressure mounts as the presidential election approaches, but the Fed maintains its independence. Bottom Line: The Fed’s upcoming rate cut aims to support the cooling labor market while keeping inflation in check. Investors should watch for further signals from the Fed. Trump Surge Sends Healthcare Stocks Soaring Generated by AI. Investors are banking on a Trump win to ease regulations for big insurers, especially in the $450 billion Medicare Advantage industry. This bet has boosted healthcare stocks. The Details: As Trump gains ground in the polls, Wall Street speculates a Republican sweep could lead to regulatory easing for health insurers. Shares of Medicare-focused companies like Humana have outperformed recently. Zoom In: Medicare Advantage, covering over half of Medicare enrollees, has faced criticism for overbilling and denying care. The Biden administration has tightened regulations, but investors expect a rollback under Trump. Big Picture: Humana, UnitedHealth, and CVS Health could see gains from a less stringent FTC environment. However, insurers in Medicaid and ACA markets might face cuts. Bottom Line: A potential Trump administration promises a friendlier stance towards big insurers, but bipartisan scrutiny on healthcare consolidation remains. Wall Street Powers Up Battery Storage Boom Solar power is booming, and so is the need for battery storage. Companies like Intersect Power are cashing in by storing energy during the day and selling it when prices peak. The Details: Entrepreneur Sheldon Kimber is leading the charge, installing giant batteries in Texas and California. These batteries store solar energy during sunny hours and release it when demand and prices are higher. Zoom In: Intersect Power is raising $837 million to fund three big battery projects in Texas. These projects will power 400,000 homes for two hours. Major investors include Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank. Big Picture: Battery storage is growing fast, thanks to solar energy and big investments. Notable deals include $315.5 million from Cerberus Capital for Eos Energy and over $1 billion for a solar and storage project in Utah by rPlus Energies. Bottom Line: Battery storage helps stabilize power grids and meets rising energy demands. With increasing investments, this sector is set for big growth. Quick Sizzles - ASML Surpasses Orders Forecasts: ASML posted €5.57 billion in orders, surpassing expectations, thanks to soaring AI demand. Chip makers like TSMC and Samsung rush to buy ASML’s advanced machinery. - AI to the Rescue: Farmers are turning to AI to combat resistant superweeds. Companies like Bayer and Syngenta are using AI to develop new herbicides faster, aiming to stay ahead in the battle against tough weeds. - Foreign Buyers Shy Away: High U.S. home prices and limited supply are cooling foreign buyer interest. Foreigners spent a record $475,000 median price, outpacing domestic buyers by $80,000. - Wall Street Fee Wars: Asset managers missed out on $3.4 billion in fees as ETFs outpaced mutual funds. Passive funds gained $1.1 trillion in new money, driving down fees. You’re currently a free subscriber. Upgrade for the full experience and receive exclusive special reports like "How to Get Rich in The Stock Market" and "Congress' Secret Stock Playbook: The Top 5 Power Picks Revealed”. [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Josh Belanger 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()

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