Trump 2.0: Boom, Bust, or Bluff?

Plus: Biden's Dropout Odds, AT&T's Data Leak, and Europe's Investment Surge ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Trump 2.0: Boom, Bust, or Bluff?]( Plus: Biden's Dropout Odds, AT&T's Data Leak, and Europe's Investment Surge [Josh Belanger](joshbelanger) Jul 13 joshbelanger   [READ IN APP](   Did you catch the stock market rollercoaster this week? The "Magnificent 7" took a back seat as small caps stole the show. The Russell 2000 went from flat to up 7% YTD—a rare 4-sigma event! Meanwhile, President Biden is under the microscope, with whispers from donors and party members urging him to step aside. Will Biden Drop Out? Market Odds Spike Polymarket's prediction odds for Biden dropping out surged from 20% to 80% post-debate. They dipped after Biden reassured he’s staying but bounced with political pressures from donors and party members. Why it matters: Despite U.S. betting bans, Polymarket has traded over $350M, offering clear probabilities in chaotic times. Real-time shifts show public sentiment and potential political shifts. The bottom line: Founder Shayne Coplan sees it as a clarity tool, but U.S. regulations challenge its growth. Polymarket remains a key source for political odds. Trump 2.0: Market Boom or Bust? Predicting the outcome of the presidential election and its impact on the market is risky, but Trump's return to the White House might influence markets. Why it matters: Initial reactions to Trump’s potential second term show muted market movements, with a slight rise in Treasury yields. Trump's policies could include tax cuts and increased tariffs on China, affecting the economy. The bottom line: Trump's first term saw GDP growth and stock market gains, but risks include trade wars and federal deficits. The US economy's technological and industrial strengths may drive corporate earnings and market highs, regardless of Washington's policies. AT&T Data Leak Exposes Millions AT&T reported a data leak affecting 73 million customers, including 65.4 million former users. Personal information like names, addresses, and Social Security numbers were exposed on the dark web. Why it matters: The leak prompted AT&T to reset 7.6 million account passcodes and offer credit monitoring to affected individuals. This incident follows a previous breach claim by hacker ShinyHunters, who targeted 70 million AT&T customers in 2021. The bottom line: While AT&T claims no evidence of system access, it faces a class action lawsuit for failing to secure customer data. The company's shares remained largely unchanged despite the breach. U.S. Investors Pour Billions into Europe, Ignoring Election Chaos Investors continued pouring money into European equity ETFs in June despite UK and French election volatility. U.S. investors contributed $1.3B, the highest since February 2023, while European investors added $910M. Why it matters: This marks the fourth consecutive month of $2B+ inflows for Europe. Improved earnings and better macro data are driving optimism. The bottom line: Despite political uncertainties, European equities are attracting significant investment, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Quick Sizzles - China’s Exports Surge: Exports grew 8.6% in June, hitting a record trade surplus. Imports fell, highlighting economic imbalance. - US Banks Warn of Financial Stress: Big banks report lower-income consumers facing financial strain ahead of elections, with lower savings and higher prices impacting spending. POLL Will Biden Drop Out? [Yes]() [No]() Vote now and see what others think! You’re currently a free subscriber. Upgrade for the full experience and receive exclusive special reports like "How to Get Rich in The Stock Market" and "Congress' Secret Stock Playbook: The Top 5 Power Picks Revealed”. [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Josh Belanger 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()