Postcards: This Isn't Fine...

The dog in the cartoon isn't going to like the heat in 2025 ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: This Isn't Fine...]( The dog in the cartoon isn't going to like the heat in 2025 [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Jul 11 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: Print more yen… watch Gold prices go higher. That was the first message that I received this morning in Slack. Gold is back above $2,400, and silver pushes back toward the $32 level. As we continue to warn, there’s something brewing, and the 10-year dropped to 4.2%. That’s not “bond vigilante territory…” - “What’s wrong with the economy.” Following the CPI reading, the Nasdaq had its worst performance against the Russell 2000 in 22 years. This was an extreme momentum day at the bottom of the market. And long overdue. --------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Fellow Expat: A "Minsky Moment" refers to a sudden market collapse brought on by the reckless speculative activity that defines a long period of prosperity and stability. It’s named after economist Hyman Minsky, who argued that financial markets are inherently unstable due to cycles of speculation and risk-taking. Minsky identified three types of financing: hedge finance (where borrowers can meet their debt obligations), speculative finance (where borrowers can only pay the interest), and Ponzi finance (where borrowers rely on rising asset prices to refinance their debt). A Minsky Moment occurs when the system is dominated by Ponzi finance. Ponzi finance… that’s important when you see this chart… U.S. interest payments on the debt will hit $1.7 trillion next April… That’s assuming that interest rates remain stable. With three rate cuts - it comes down to $1.2 trillion, which is still colossally insane. Now consider this… if the U.S. government borrows money… to finance interest payments… that is the definition of Ponzi finance. The global liquidity cycle will likely top out in the next 18 months - creating more pressure on borrowing costs, collateral quality, and stability in this market. As we continue to note - the play against monetary inflation will remain gold, silver, commodities, pipelines, and prime real estate. But this will get very bumpy - and worse - everyone seems to know this. At a time when the U.S. dollar is still VERY strong relative to other currencies… we are back to levels of overvaluation that have only happened a handful of times since 1950. Next year will come soon… and the fireworks will be very bright. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Finance Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()