Worldwide Political Heatwave

Market Sizzle: Volatile Stocks, Killer Airbags, Power Plays, Big Bank Busts ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Worldwide Political Heatwave]( Market Sizzle: Volatile Stocks, Killer Airbags, Power Plays, Big Bank Busts [Josh Belanger](joshbelanger) Jul 8 joshbelanger   [READ IN APP](   Good afternoon. As we bask in the summer sun post-July 4th, the heat isn’t just from the weather. From France kicking off its election process to the US political scene, things are sizzling. Over the weekend, France began its election journey, leading to the final round today. Meanwhile, in the US, some House Democrats and big donors are suggesting Biden should step aside. The catch? There's no clear alternative. Politics sure knows how to keep us on our toes! Market Volatility Looms Stocks hovered near all-time highs. Traders watch earnings and the US presidential race. The S&P 500 may hit its 35th record this year. Inflation expectations fell for a second month, said a Fed survey. Major banks will report earnings Friday, with more upgrades than downgrades. Forward earnings forecasts hit a record high. Experts see strong earnings and a resilient economy pushing valuations up. Some raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 5,900. High expectations for corporate results noted. Warnings of "choppiness" as earnings season begins, but markets may recover with company buybacks. Nvidia soared as UBS raised its target. Boeing’s 737 jets need inspections after an issue with United Airlines. Treasury 10-year yields stayed at 4.27%. Bitcoin fell over Mt. Gox concerns. French election uncertainty suggested no big policy changes. President Biden committed to his re-election bid. Predictions of a market correction due to earnings, Fed policy, and political uncertainty. A possible 10% S&P 500 drop expected due to economic concerns. Power Trading Frenzy Hedge funds are flocking to electricity and gas trading. They’re lured by volatile prices and big profit opportunities. Offering big bonuses and perks, they aim to attract top traders from utilities and banks. Electricity trading has surged. AI and electrification are driving demand. Global trading volumes for electricity futures jumped 35% from 2019 to 2023. Some regions saw even bigger increases. Power is highly volatile. Hedge funds see big opportunities but also risks. Major banks have reduced their presence due to regulations. Hedge funds face fewer restrictions and bigger paydays. Top traders earn a large share of profits, with signing bonuses and company cars as perks. The Russia-Ukraine war caused market disruptions. Energy demand and aging infrastructure could mean more volatility. Traders buy power cheap in the morning and sell during peak demand. Killer Airbags Fake airbags are causing deadly accidents. A young mother died when a counterfeit airbag exploded in her Chevrolet. The device blew apart like a grenade, spraying sharp metal and plastic. This isn't a one-time event. At least five people have been killed or seriously hurt by fake airbags in the past year. These counterfeit airbags are hard to track and many go unreported. Car companies are warning dealers to watch out for fakes. One company found fake airbags with misspelled logos. Fake airbags often get installed during repairs. They are sold online and look almost real, but they can explode like bombs. Regulators and automakers are fighting back with arrests and urging websites like eBay to ban airbag sales. Fake airbags are a big problem. They’re dangerous and hard to spot. It's crucial to be aware and cautious. Big Banks' CRE Crisis Big banks are taking hits from commercial real estate loans. Declining property values hurt all banks, but bigger banks show more damage. Small banks hold more commercial real estate debt, but their loans perform better. In the first quarter, over 4.4% of big banks' loans to leased properties were delinquent. For small banks, it was below 1%. High interest rates hurt big banks more. Owner-occupied loans do better if businesses are healthy. Big banks have more office debt maturing soon. They set aside reserves for losses. The median reserve ratio for office loans is 8%, much higher than the average for all banks. If property values drop more, small banks might suffer. However, stable interest rates could help them. There's potential value in small bank stocks despite concerns. Quick Sizzles: - Samsung's AI Chip Boom Fuels Profit Surge: Demand for cutting-edge chips in the race for AI dominance propels Samsung Electronics to a staggering profit increase. - ESG Investing Loses Its Luster as Shareholder Support Dwindles: The once-hot trend of environmental, social, and governance investing faces a reality check as investor enthusiasm cools. - Wall Street Banks Poised for Profit Jump Amidst Deal-Making Revival: A resurgence in mergers and debt deals signals a potential rebound for investment banking revenues. - US Companies Face High Bar to Impress Wall Street: With stock valuations at multi-year highs, companies must deliver impressive earnings to maintain the market's momentum. - Holiday Shipping Frenzy: US Retailers Pay Top Dollar to Beat Supply Chain Chaos: Fearing empty shelves, retailers are rushing to ship holiday goods early, driving up freight costs. - Consumer Goods Giants Feel the Pinch as Pricing Power Weakens: After years of price hikes, companies are resorting to discounts and coupons to lure frugal shoppers. That’s today’s market sizzle! You're currently a free subscriber to [Josh Belanger](. For the full experience, [upgrade your subscription.]( [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Josh Belanger 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()