Postcards: Well, It's Sunday... Again

In the spirit of Groundhog Day, we look at the week ahead. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Well, It's Sunday... Again]( In the spirit of Groundhog Day, we look at the week ahead. [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Jul 7 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: Tomorrow, we’ll kick off State of the Republic in the mornings for viewers. Pay attention - we’ll break down something. Who knows what? It could be anything between the jobs report or why Lana Del Ray is better than Taylor Swift. ([It’s okay to admit it…]( Who knows… We have to be precise. Monday, July 8, 2024 Event: Walmart Deals (WMT) shopping event. Republic Speak: Who needs a new Vizio television? Who wants to buy a garden hose on sale? These shopping events are exhausting… and make me want to yell at turtles. Why turtles? Because Jen Psaki was my least favorite Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle. I’m personally long Walmart. Why? It’s the largest Big Box retailer and grocery store chain nationwide. It’s not going anywhere. But let me tell you how I’ve played this. Again… full transparency. And I’ll see this position through. I own 100 shares of Walmart (WMT). It’s not a huge position. But I own the stock… and I sold 1 call for June 2025 at the $76.66 level. This is a covered call. If the stock goes above that level, I have a breakeven of around $79.50. That’s a nice pop from today’s level. If it doesn’t reach that level, I just keep the stock and pocket the premium. This is a GREAT time to sell calls on long-term positions because of the air pocket in global liquidity. The next few weeks are going to be choppy!!! Bitcoin is showing us this… Tuesday, July 9, 2024 Event: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Republic Speak: If someone can mail me a bottle of low-quality table wine, I’ll take myself out that morning. It’s insane that Powell hasn’t had the guts to explain to Congress that THEY are why inflation remains so bad. When you print money… and engage in insane fiscal policy… inflation is hard to tame. And the Fed cannot do it alone. Now… I want everyone in the back to hear me. The Fed cannot do this alone. Again… let me explain something: Interest rates—which the Fed controls—are NOT THE COST OF MONEY. This is the greatest myth in finance. In a globalized world driven by global liquidity, the cost of money is FOREX RATES. [The dollar is so strong right now]( and it’s not slowing down. And that is why… without a doubt… the industry in which I operate… is so far behind. People who work in financial publishing typically ignore two things: The bond markets and the Forex markets. They’re both boring… I get it. But they are responsible for equity risk tolerance on a daily basis. I won’t bother you with more on this… but it largely has to do with regulation and the shortcuts of research. I want to scream… because so many people just don’t understand what is happening. I watched Peter Schiff take a victory lap around Bitcoin falling 15% in a month… Both hit a bottom in 2022… and Bitcoin took off because… of liquidity expansion. Congrats, Peter. You told people to dump Bitcoin at $1,000. Gold is not finite. Nor is risk. This whole system is literally governments and shadow banks creating capital and debt. And right now… there isn’t an expansion happening over the last 45 days. That’s it. It’s so freaking basic that people are too busy trying to sound smart. This is the easiest story in the world to explain… and yet, we have morons stuck to antiquated 20th-century financial metrics like PE ratios. If you ask me… what’s the worst part of your job… It’s this basic ignorance. Wednesday, July 10, 2024 Event: Monthly OPEC Report Republic Speak: The global oil markets will likely see oversupply next year, which could press oil down into the $60s. The solution? Midstream… midstream… midstream. More is coming on the subject. Thursday, July 11, 2024 Event: Delta Earnings, June CPI Republic Speak: Earnings season really kicks off when Delta reports. It’s one of my favorite companies… but I don’t own the stock. I’ve spent the last two hours finalizing my trip to Europe the day before the election. Hopefully, the drinks will be very cold, and I can fall asleep. Friday, July 12, 2024 Event: Earnings from Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC); June Producer Price Index; USDA’s World Agricultural Supply & Demand (WASDE) report. Republic Speak: This is too much. The banks will set the tone for the rest of the earning season, and PPI follows the consumer numbers. But I am really interested in the state of affairs on the WASDE. This weather hasn’t been fun so far. Kansas and Western Texas don’t look good, and it will worsen. This is a rare case where I will go long Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT). I hate this fund, but I see a downside on WEAT to around $5.20, while the upside is around $6.50. Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports aren’t going to expand greatly. There’s not a lot of volatility in the options chain right now, meaning that you’re basically selling a put to buy the underlying. A backdoor play is in MGP Ingredients (MPGI), near its 52-week low. Watch for insider buying on the backside of earnings. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Time Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()