Postcards: Somewhere in the Eighties

Made it to Rome. Not doing anything today. Probably just going to feel very hot. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Somewhere in the Eighties]( Made it to Rome. Not doing anything today. Probably just going to feel very hot. [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Jun 23 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: I had a Little League Baseball coach who worked for Gatorade when I was eight. We were the “Yankees.” He gave us baseball bags with the Yankees logo on one side and the Gatorade logo on the other. We had a HUGE Gatorade cooler on our bench, and he would fill it during every game… with the same flavor: Lemon Lime. I’m unsure what happened to the original Lemon Lime flavor, but it changed in the 1990s. It got sweeter and thicker… honestly, it's pretty bad. I’ve been chasing that 1980s Lemon Lime flavor for the better part of Adulthood, but I just didn’t realize it. And here we are in Rome… and on the shelf of a store, I bought the Italian version of Gatorade in a slim bottle. Lemon Lime - I’ll try it, I thought. And it’s the same formula as the Little League. Somewhere, they changed the formula in America. Different sucrose… A Benzine… a new phosphate… They tested it on a monkey and a beagle. They lived. Whatever. And as I travel across Europe - shedding pounds because I’m walking everywhere and not eating American chemicals - I can’t help but notice all my arthritic pain fade. What the hell are they feeding us? Don’t be shocked if I return as a vegan who is very into growing his kale. And that’s just the Gatorade. Don’t even get me started on the bread quality. Or how I burned a bunch of pasta sauce today… I’m pretty bummed. Let’s get to the week ahead… Quick Update This market has seen a dip in U.S. liquidity and only 19% of all stocks are beating the S&P 500 over the last four weeks. That hasn’t happened in over 20 years… and possibly longer (likely the Dot-Com bust). Everyone should be nervous… but pay attention because if the Weighted S&P 500 hits oversold, we’ll likely see a rebound. Despite this, we see record-low levels of short interest on both the SPY and QQQ. I think we’ll hit 6,000… and then peel back to 5,000 in 2025 or 2026. Barring a liquidity crisis… this stupid thing will keep going. Now then… Monday, June 24, 2024 Event: Marine Money Week conference Republic Speak: It’s a big conference for investors in the January shipping names. Ardmore (ASC), International Seaways (INSW), and Teekay (TK) will all be part of this three-day conference. There’s an opportunity to see insight into innovation… but more importantly, it is a deeper dive into the economics of shipping and how competition from China may weigh on the sector. I remain VERY bullish on Ardmore because they have such a young fleet and operate in a very niche area of specialty chemicals. Tuesday, June 25, 2024 Event: FedEx earnings (FDX) Republic Speak: So, how’s the global economy doing? FedEx will tell us. This is one of those stocks that if the company misses… and misses badly; you buy the dip if the stock falls into the third or fourth standard deviation band. They’re shipping boxes, man; I don’t know what to tell you. ([Regrets… Boxes…]( Keep a close eye on Expeditors International (EXPD) and Landstar System (LSTR), as both stocks correlate very strongly to FDX’s earnings performance. Wednesday, June 25, 2024 Event: Chipotle (CMG) and its 50-1 stock split is upon us. Republic Speak: I watched The Founder about Ray Croc and McDonald’s last night. If they ever do a sequel to this movie, it should be about how McDonald’s had a huge investment in Chipotle and then divested from it in 2006. They might have paid the McDonald’s brothers’ “handshake” agreement with the profits. If there were ever a stock that got away from me… it’s Chipotle. I wrote my graduate papers in agribusiness on their supply chains… and I never bought the damn thing. Shares were around $350 at the time. It happens… Thanks Fed. Thursday, June 26, 2024 Event: Earnings from Nike (NKE), McCormick (MKC), and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) Republic Speak: This is a trifecta of interest for us at Republic Research. We love Nike as a company, and NKE, from a liquidity perspective, seems to do badly when liquidity dries up globally. Buy the dip. U.S. liquidity fell by $50 billion last week. That was the biggest drop since April, and that’s why we’ve been negative (aside from the top 3 stocks in the market). Don’t worry, liquidity will increase again. It has to… McCormick (MKC) buys by the pound and sells by the ounce. It’s a perfect study of global inflation and international supply chains. I’ve criticized the Buy instead of Build strategy. 26 times earnings? Wow… Walgreens (WBA) needs to be fixed. Are they selling WBA or not? Why hasn’t an activist investor blown this thing apart yet? This company is just a wine store that occasionally sells aspirin. Friday, June 27, 2024 Event: The Core PCE price index report Republic Speak: Will we have a rate cut in 2024? We will find out on Friday. If Core PCE is over 0.3% for the month, not only should you have a glass of wine, but you should also give up on any rate cuts for the year. The good news is that liquidity keeps expanding, and the stock market doesn’t represent the economy. But the bad news is that interest rates will remain elevated, and the private sector will continue to get its butt kicked by central planners. That’s all. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Burned Pasta Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()