Postcards: Meats, Cheeses, and the Week Ahead

Greetings from Genoa, Italy, land of meats and gelato. I've been trying to sleep, but it's not going well. So, let's just knock out our weekly outlook. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Meats, Cheeses, and the Week Ahead]( Greetings from Genoa, Italy, land of meats and gelato. I've been trying to sleep, but it's not going well. So, let's just knock out our weekly outlook. [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Jun 15 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   In Italy, Amelia lay wide, Refusing to sleep, though they tried, "Go the heck to bed!" But she danced instead, With a grin that she couldn't quite hide. Dear Fellow Expat: The last few days have been more or less a ritual time machine. We flew to Atlanta from Baltimore, only to fly back over Baltimore on the way to Nice, France. Despite all the planning, my Mastercard doesn’t work, and T-Mobile is a complete disgrace. So, we’re clinging to what we can - the AirBnb internet. I didn’t sleep on the plane and didn’t sleep in the first hotel. Now, I’m sitting on a terrace, overlooking the Old Town of Genoa, which is incredibly beautiful and pacific in the late hours. I couldn’t tell you where exactly I am… but I know that morning will come fast - with a 5:39 am sunrise. My daughter couldn’t sleep either, though her actions were intentional. Hence, the limerick. I have picked an interesting week to be out of the country. It’s a quiet week for the market, and we have a holiday on Wednesday that will impact trading. It doesn’t feel like it, but we’re red across the board in this low-volume environment. We are witnessing “crowding” by funds that are all rotating capital out of Russell 2000 and Bottom 490 S&P 500 stocks - and buying up NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This is an odd phenomenon that happened in 2021. The Russell went nowhere that year, but Magnificient Seven stocks were the rage. I assume that we’re also seeing a lot of ETFs and other active funds crowding into these stocks to attempt to replicate their benchmark. We don’t own a single Magnificient Seven stock - but our core portfolio from January is still beating the S&P 500. The problem - however - is that our shipping stocks have lost momentum - and they’re now dropping under their 20-day moving averages. There will be many opportunities to bid up these names again if and when these stocks approach their 50-day moving average. Ardmore isn’t going away… It’s a specialty chemical shipping company with a robust, young fleet, which makes it one of the best names in the space. Let’s get to the week ahead. Monday, June 17 Event: Walmart's (WMT) member-only Walmart+ shopping event Republic Speak: Who wants to buy a Vizio television for 97% off? Buy one electric toothbrush, and get seventeen GPS watches free. Walmart has leapfrogged Amazon (AMZN) to host its own shopping event even before its rival’s Prime Day. But let me remind you what this is: an excuse to clear inventory. Oh… and it’s not a two-day event. It’s Walmart+ WEEK. Heaven, please help us. Tuesday, June 18 Event: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee joins the "Economic and Monetary Policy" panel at the 2024 Marshall Forum. Republic Speak: I’m praying that Goolsbee has a better showing [than Neel Kashkari did recently](. Kashkari couldn’t understand why Americans prefer a recession to high inflation… which any economist should know just by falling out of bed. I’ll note that I am anti-Gold Standard because of Goolsbee, who explained how China and Russia could easily manipulate a gold-backed dollar. In addition, a gold-backed currency is basically just a Gold ETF. Wednesday, June 19 Event: Juneteenth Republic Speak: The markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth. Thursday, June 20 Event: Spain V. Italy in Euro 2024, WTI crude futures expire Republic Speak: We’ve officially dubbed June 20 Garrett Day during this trip to Italy. I’ll be watching the Denmark vs. England match somewhere in Milan, and then I’ll hang out with a bunch of Italian soccer fans as they play against Spain. That should be a very fun experience. Garrett Day! Meanwhile, I’m looking for crude prices to level off this week after a very choppy month. We’ll keep our focus on Occidental (OXY), but energy stocks are still negative. Friday, June 21 Event: The S&P 500 Index, S&P MidCap 400 Index, and S&P SmallCap 600 Index rebalance after the market closes. Republic Speak: There will be a lot of speculation on names like Texas Pacific Land (TPL) and a host of others as this rebalancing happens. Recall that these stocks are added to these indices, and fund managers buy them up to attempt to replicate their benchmarks. I like selling put spreads on the new S&P 500 additions in CrowdStrike (CRWD), KKR & Co. (KKR), and GoDaddy (GDDY). But remember that we’re in a negative momentum environment. KKR is an incredible company, and it’s wild that this stock traded at $19 a share during the COVID crisis. If you need me, I’ll be bouncing around Porto Fino in the next few days and working on a new project. I hope you all have a great week. I’ll be checking in very early on U.S. time, so emails might arrive at 3 a.m. EST. Be sure to go through your full mailbox and look for updates. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Cheeses Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()