Postcards: The Overlords Land (Do This)

The Fed Open Market Committee meeting starts today... oh joy... ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: The Overlords Land (Do This)]( The Fed Open Market Committee meeting starts today... oh joy... [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Jun 11 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   [Republic Risk readers… go here… click here. Read here. This is your article here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Fellow Expat: Oh, joy. It’s time for us to enjoy the Greatest Show on Earth. This is an “Okay Show”… two stars, Hugh Jackman… They’re back… The Federal Reserve and its illustrious Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). They’ll meet over the next two days to pretend they understand how money operates. The Fed meets six times per year, you ask? Yes, the high priests of finance, the wizards behind the curtain, pulling the strings of the American economy while we, the hapless masses, dance to their discordant tune. Or speculate on what the wine tells them. These are the people who speak a monotone and pretend that they aren’t ruining the lives of ordinary Americans. “Capitalism is the problem,” the protestors cry… Well… there is no capitalism when the core means of capitalism’s finance is centrally controlled. Argument over… Now, let's delve into the arcane rituals of the FOMC. [Upgrade to paid]( The FOMC Meeting This elite cabal—the FOMC—meets several times a year to decide the fate of our financial futures. They sit in their grand chambers, deliberating whether to raise or lower interest rates, all while eating what I assume are lead pencils. They pretend to understand the complex equations they scribble on their yellow pads. They have PhDs, which means they are better than us… but know less than us on collective experience. They have a specialty, but their parents are disappointed that they aren’t surgeons or lawyers. Seriously… who gets interested in economics? What horrible thing happened to you when you were 27 that you had to spend the rest of your life diving into the arcane field of Alice in Wonderland… Oh.. the Great Financial Crisis, Garrett? Yes… this is all called… Projection. My name is Garrett {NAME}… and I’m a recovering economist. It’s Too Early for This The Fed meetings are little more than economic seances. Should we raise interest rates, Ghost of John Maynard Keynes? This guy ruined all the economists that Karl Marx didn’t. No… not you, Alan Keyes. The Ouija board says, “Follow Your Heart, Jerome,” from the great beyond. Bad at Mandates A lot of people ask me what the point of this is… Well, the FOMC, in its infinite wisdom, claims to aim for maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. They’re not doing well. Their goal is maximum unemployment. But the definition shifts like sand in a hurricane. To be “unemployed,” you must be looking for work “in the job market” and be of a certain age. There are a lot of other rigid boxes to check, too… [Like… it can’t be a fault of your own](. (It’s always your fault…) Sure, the number of Americans who are able-bodied and [eligible for the workforce is at 62.5%]( but the unemployment rate is 4%? It makes sense if you eat enough pencils. Like, really… chomp on that lead. Then there’s inflation. They’re claiming it’s 3.4%… it’s… NOT. Because inflation is really the real cost of goods adjusted over 12 months. They have some weird formula where they alter it repeatedly to make it seem like it’s less than it is. They changed the formula in the 1990s. If we used the same formula we used the last time inflation exploded, in the late 1970s/early 1980s, the CPI would be north of 7.5%. [Meanwhile, the Chapwood Index]( which measures what people ACTUALLY BUY in hundreds of cities, shows that inflation is north of 10% in many cities. That’s an independent, non-partisan group that actually looks at price tags. So, what's the point of all this financial tomfoolery? The Federal Reserve and the FOMC would have you believe they are the guardians of economic stability, the sentinels keeping the forces of chaos at bay. But in reality, they often seem more like pyromaniac firefighters, setting blazes just to have something to extinguish. They tweak and tinker, meddle/muddle… all while convincing themselves that they're doing the Lord's work. The Fed looks impressive, sounds important, and requires a small army of experts to operate, but it leaves you wondering if the concert might have been better off without it. That said… their music is still playing… so we just keep dancing. What To Do [If you’re a trader, I'd like to give you the 2:35 trade for tomorrow.]( As you’ll see, the market will react at 2:30 when Powell speaks. But… there is a directional trade typically between 2:34 and 2:37 p.m. I picked up on it two years ago. This is pure algorithmic trading. My expectations around Fed meetings do not change with computers running everything. Look for a spike in the first 30 minutes… followed by a selloff in the final hour. The only thing that would flip the script is if the market rallies hard early because it projects a rate cut this year. But the Fed isn’t cutting rates this year. People need to stop drinking before these meetings. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Finance Song of the Day Fantastic Man - William Onyeabor Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()