Postcards: Five Things to Buy Before 2025

As monetary inflation accelerates, these assets become damn important... ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Five Things to Buy Before 2025]( As monetary inflation accelerates, these assets become damn important... May 28   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: With the VIX under 13 and oil rebounding on Monday, markets are staring head-long into the PCE Inflation figure arriving this week. Markets are still pricing in a September rate cut, with speculation around a second in December. This still seems insane as services inflation remains highly sticky, and food prices are nowhere near the official figures. How much did your Memorial Day cookout cost? The average price was about 10% higher than last year. --------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Fellow Expat: David Elias made a staggering prediction in 1999 at the height of the Dot-Com Bubble. At the time, the Dow Jones was hovering near 11,000. So, the perma-bull predicted the stock market by 2016… Dow 40,000. Most people laughed off the absurdity. Would the Dow go up 300% in 17 years? Of course, it wouldn’t, as the Great Financial Crisis sent it crashing down to 7,000 a decade later. But then something happened… A massive force that helped propel the Dow back to 10,000… 20,000… 30,000… And just recently, 40,000. You get three guesses on what it is… but the first two don’t count. The last 15 years have witnessed the incredible rush of liquidity injections, quantitative easing, lax fiscal policies, and zero percent interest rates. In fact, even during our recent spike in interest rates, we’ve witnessed an 18% return for the Dow in the last 12 months—largely due to more quantitative support from the Fed and other central banks after the 2022 GILT Crisis in England and the 2023 regional banking crisis. So, when Elias recently predicted that the Dow would hit 67,000 in the next ten years… I’m sure he’s correct if the zombie monetization of the economy continues. [Upgrade to paid]( Here’s the Playbook We’re back in the office after a long weekend in New York. We learned quite a bit over the weekend, including long chats with friends in banking about the state of affairs. One of the major topics we discussed was Michael Howell’s arguments on Global Liquidity. His arguments have gone mainstream, evidenced by his climb up the Substack Finance charts and regular appearances on podcasts everywhere. As I’ve noted this week… the current stream of monetary inflation, monetization, and likely fiscal repression by the Fed has created many questions about where investors should put their money. This week, Howell appeared on the [Growth Manifesto Podcast]( an Australian show covering business, marketing, tech, and entrepreneurship podcasts. It’s a bit wonky, but worth your time - as it repeats his ongoing thesis on the challenges linked to refinancing the financial system and the likely outcomes. If the liquidity cycle accelerates - and it likely will - the assets to own are: - Bitcoin - Gold - Commodities - Prime Real Estate - Blue Chip Stocks And why are these the right things to own? Well, we explained yesterday that there are three qualities that we can look for. Things that are largely finite, scarce, and in high demand. - Blue Chip Stocks: These equities do a very good job absorbing inflation, and well-run companies tend to reduce their share count by repurchasing shares to enhance shareholder return. - Bitcoin: This is the only perfectly scarce asset, with a total fixed supply of 21 million in the future. - Gold: Despite being accessible - largely depends on mining production costs at a time when BRICS economies are hoarding gold at record levels. The BRICS now have more gold combined than Fort Knox's gold. - Commodities: They may not be finite, but they can be rare. And they remain in high demand. Production costs keep supply from drowning out the markets. - Prime Real Estate: This isn’t about hoarding raw land anywhere, but it speaks to the places that will experience high demand. In addition to the beachfront properties, productive farmland can generate inflation-protected returns for investors. There’s one more area that I’d focus on as an investor. Reversion Stocks: That’s the capital-efficient, well-run businesses trading at terrific prices with a chance of catching reversion momentum. We cover them here at Republic Risk Letter - and our portfolio is beating the S&P 500 by 700 basis points this year despite higher inflation and the market’s reliance on semiconductor names. We’ll release our latest pick on Monday, June 3, 2024, and we’ll make it easy for you. [Upgrade to paid]( Stay positive, Garrett Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()