Postcards: Republicly Speaking

Don't move to Portugal, the week ahead, fan mail, and what we're trading this week. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Republicly Speaking]( Don't move to Portugal, the week ahead, fan mail, and what we're trading this week. [Garrett {NAME}]( May 19   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: There are emails from readers… and then… there are EMAILS from readers. Yesterday, I went on a bit of a rant about an email pitching me a condominium in Portugal. And I received, easily, the best comment in the history of the Republic. The last name and email have been removed to protect us from ourselves… I laughed so hard… I gave the man three free years of Republic Risk letter… Now… he’ll be the only one. Don’t feel the need to start pointing out the obvious and think you’ll get a reward. Let’s get to the things I think… and the week ahead. Jimi Hendrix I rewatched this video of Jimi Hendrix in Maui in 1970. You know… before we went off the gold standard. What I can’t figure out is what happened to color? Look at the clothes. Look at Jimi’s headband. Mitch Mitchell’s hair. What is it about this video that is so beautiful? Every color pops. Even the black shirt that Jimi Hendrix is wearing looks brighter than any version of the color I’ve seen anywhere. (Also, I’d love to know where the guy at 3:27 — who seems to be mentally breaking into the doors of heaven — is today.) I can’t play guitar, but I’m in awe of people who can. I’m too impatient. I want to do it now. So, I got good at other things… The adage goes that either Jimi Hendrix is your favorite guitarist… or your favorite guitarist’s favorite guitarist is Jimi Hendrix. That proves correct for me. I’m a massive Stevie Ray Vaughan fan, and his covers of Hendrix songs are remarkable. Also, I want Vaughan’s outfit. Hendrix, of course, played a right handed guitar upside down, which created an iconic sound. I’m a technical guy… but I can’t even do Guitar Hero right. That’s all. I just wanted to talk about music for a hot minute. Best Ad I’ve Ever Seen I found this by accident the other day. This is an advertisement by Coca Cola… But they ran it in Argentina… in 2013. First… why can’t this ad run in the United States? You probably know the reason. Second… Coca Cola (KO) is one of those companies that buys commodities in bulk and turns them into brands. It’s why I love McCormick & Company (MKC). They buy by the pound and sell by the ounce. McCormick is still $74 a share. Its got lifetime value… and I’m probably going to pick up some shares later this week. An Interesting Product I convinced myself that I would be a guy who composts. Oh… yeah… let’s collect all the unused lettuce, then put it in a shit pile outside on the property? This is the worst New Year’s Resolution ever. I failed on every single level. [Enter an interesting product…]( It’s called Mill. It grinds everything up and turns it into compost… it takes a few weeks to fill it up. It’s $1,000. (Was really hoping it was gonna be $500 to keep that bit going). But I would say this is probably the biggest boost ever for someone who gardens. It solves a major bottleneck I have trying to grow food. I love this concept, and I’m going to reach out to Matt Rogers, the founder to learn more. I’ll see if I can get an interview with him. Bradley Horowitz is an investor… These are the types of inventions that give me hope for the nation. Wait… What? Something is wrong here. This is allocation of investors… and they’ve never been longer stocks before. Debt allocation is at 18%. Does anyone… anywhere… understand what the hell is going on? The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have underminded the entire concept of debt. Bondholders get paid first… and no one wants to allocate there right now because every bailout is a liquidity, equity bailout. This is going to end so badly… I’m buying another $20,000 in gold this week. Debt should be a MINIMUM of 30% allocation in a rational market. Equity around 40%. This is on the Clinton administration. They destroyed modern finance. Proud Before my daughter just took a bath upstairs, I told her four things. - I’m proud of her. - I’m in awe of how she solves problems. - I can’t wait to see what she does next. - She gives my life meaning. You know… light Sunday conversation. Let’s Republic Speak the week ahead. The Week Ahead The Dow has hit 40,000. And in the weekly Syz Group recap… they pointed out that the S&P 500 is up 22% since the Fed started hiking interest rates. How is that possible? Well… liquidity. Governments and central banks and shadow banks are expanding liquidity. There are people who think that Michael Howell’s liquidity argument is wrong. I’m not one of those people. [He argues the liquidity cycle will peak in mid-2025](. If that’s the case, I would not want to be president in 2026. I think we’ll see a 20% correction in two years. What do you do until then? [Ride the Electric Centipede](. Monday, May 20, 2024 Event: Zoom Earnings (ZM) Republic Speak: Three years ago, I was laughing at this company, Zoom. Video conferencing. Cathie Wood lost a fortune of other people’s money on this stock. It hit $559 in October 2020. It’s $64 today. I was arguing that they were going out of business. There’s no moat. There’s no barriers to entry in video calling. It felt like AOL. But CEO Eric Yuan impresses me. He’s a geology engineer - similar to one of my favorite minds in the world Rick Rule. F score - 7. Z score - 8.1. [This is a contrarian Tim Melvin special](. A Thanksgiving conversation. This stock has growth, profitability, financial strength, and value. It’s missing momentum. Is it possible that this earnings blows the doors off and we get back to what this company is really worth? About $85. I’d willing to lose 10% if the upside is 33% over the next 18 months. Tuesday, May 21, 2024 Event: IBM Think 2024 Event, FTC closed door meeting. Republic Speak: The “B” in IBM is for bureaucracy. There is no scenario that I would ever recommend this company in 2024. There’s a bunch of chatter about this FTC meeting. Wednesday, May 22, 2024 Event: NVIDIA Earnings (NVDA) Republic Speak: Options are implying a 9% move on the stock. This is Iron Condor territory for options traders. I would rather drink gasoline than try to determine where the stupidest AI stock is. Just buy Deere & Co. (DE) instead. Thursday, May 23, 2024 Event: Head administrator Michael Whitaker testifies before Congress on the state of the Federal Aviation Administration. Lots of talk about Boeing (BA) coming. Republic Speak: So, this is funny. Because I thought this was Michael Whitaker, the Silver Fox busted for feeding performance enhancing drugs to a horse. You know… it’s really hard to come up with things to do on Thursday. Oh… wait a minute. It’s my wife’s 40th birthday. Well, 29 plus 11. The dumbest, most subsidized, failing public company in America is Boeing. When you are paid to fail, you will. Friday, May 24, 2024 Event: Consumer Sentiment Republic Speak: Seriously… who are the consumers who are happy? Where do they find these people? We need a new list. Go to any bar and ask people what they think of the economy. If you defend the government, make sure they’re not holding a fork in their hand. That’s all. Stay positive, Garrett Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()