Postcards: Gravity Isn't Bringing Us Down (Republic Speak)

It seems that Captain Jay doesn't want Deion Sanders on the Florida Republic flag... I suppose we'll have to ask President Elsie what she thinks... ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Gravity Isn't Bringing Us Down (Republic Speak)]( It seems that Captain Jay doesn't want Deion Sanders on the Florida Republic flag... I suppose we'll have to ask President Elsie what she thinks... [Garrett {NAME}]( May 12   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: I wasn’t aware how many fellow ex-pats have deeply negative feelings about Deion Sanders, easily the best athlete to come out of Florida. He’s a Fort Myers kid. And while easily the most cocky athlete of his time, we like that sort of bravado. But not Captain Jay. He had something to get off his chest and did so in the spirit of our appreciation for free speech and open debate. I would describe the rant as merciless. And a worthy objection in support of Bobby Bowden on the Florida Republic flag. A shift away from Mr. Sanders won’t favor Florida State University. I’d be… okay with Mr. Gator himself, Emmitt Smith on the flag. Then we start talking Miami players. Michael Irvin? (controversial) Ray Lewis? (controversial) Warren Sapp… (you forgot about him) Then we move elsewhere… NBA star Vince Carter!!! (controversial) Tim Tebow? (you definitely forgot about him) How about Sebastian Janikowski (controversial)? Cris Collinsworth (can we please trade him for Randy Moss?) We’re all a little controversial here in the Florida Republic. So, we’ll always struggle to find someone we all agree is worthy... When I wrote the Deion flag pitch, I largely argued about his attitude and the saying, “We coming.” It was a reminder that we were coming in strong as Republic Research. And look at what we’ve done so far. We’ve blown the damn doors off trading CEO, CFO, and 10% insider buying... Here are the official statistics from “Zee Germans” who independently audited our record. What isn’t added is our recent buy on Hallador Energy (HNRG) at $5.06. It’s at $6.27 now. That’s a 24% gain in a few weeks. Meanwhile, our Risk Portfolio is beating the S&P 500. Gravity (GRVY), the stock we picked on May 2, just jumped 12% on Friday. It's time to sell some calls on it. Here’s the entire portfolio. We’re up 14.23%, not including dividends. I’d calculate those, but the people we asked to do that a few months ago went AWOL. We’re beating the S&P 500 by 400 basis points and dragging the average S&P 500 stock. PBF Energy (PBF) was in the $60s not too long ago, so when we start actively managing this portfolio strategy in July… we think we’ll do even better. And we haven’t really built a huge community yet. (Rob Braddock… call me…) All that said… we have to get our flag set up. We can play Gin Rummy under it. But if we cross too many people off the list for our flag… we will end up with Nathan Lane’s character in The Birdcage… With a quote bubble over his head that screams, “How bout those Dolphins!?” Underrated movie. Let’s get to Republic Speak and the week ahead. Liquidity and Such There is not much to report on the market front. [Mister Howell had liquidity]( again this week, and his prediction remains that the cycle will be strong into mid-to-late 2025. I think 2026 is going to be a doozy… and that’s when and where we’ll be moving into HEAVY defensive mode. But for now, ride the reversions and play the insiders. Right now, the markets are seeing a huge pop in stock buybacks at the corporate level. Even though insider buying remains a little weak, Goldman says that there could be $934 billion in corporate buybacks this year. This makes sense in the short term as companies do not expect the Fed to raise interest rates again. (I’m in the camp expecting a rate hike next year… even if they do cut this year. They’ve completely lost the game.) Buybacks matter. They’re an [important component of the Piotroski F score]( in reducing the number of outstanding shares. They’re also a sign of confidence that the companies have strong cash flow and won’t use any shenanigans through secondary raises for capital. Hey! Let’s talk the week ahead. Monday, May 13, 2024 Event: OpenAI will probably announce a new AI search tool that makes Google look like a 75-year-old librarian. Republic Speak: This is good news for Microsoft (MSFT), [but as I’ve explained]( I don’t care. AI is not supposed to be about these companies. Yes. You’ll want to structure your portfolio a bit on the more speculative elements of AI within a well-[constructed allocation model.]( But this is headline noise and can quickly become a “sell the news” moment where people dump shares to foolish buyers. If you want to participate in AI, I’ve outlined this before: [Class A REITs]( Deere & Co. (DE), and natural gas pipelines. You won’t blow yourself up in pursuit of AI profits. Tuesday, May 14, 2024 Event: OPEC Monthly Oil Report, PPI Release, Home Depot (HD) earnings Republic Speak: In reverse order, I expect Home Depot to have a fantastic earnings report, but pay close attention to the guidance. Americans are stuck in their homes due to “higher for longer” narratives. But if there’s expected weakness for Do It Yourself or contractor spending, we have a serious economic problem ahead. That comes the same day that we’ll get the PPI. This is a weird period where the PPI comes out the day before the Consumer Price Index. With natural gas prices rising, we might be in for a surprise. And remember… these are NOT WHOLESALE PRICES. Finally… OPEC. Oil prices are signaling the possibility of recession. What matters in the months ahead is what Russia decides to do with its production. If they break from the agreements, oil is likely heading lower. Meanwhile, remember that OPEC will decide whether it wants to start increasing output from its post-COVID cuts. We’re eyeing June 1 as a possibility for this… I’d love to see oil prices tank, as it would give us a very good opportunity to buy up refineries like PBF Energy (PBF) and Valero (VLO) and our favorite midstream names. Hey… guess what? Later today, we’re releasing a Midstream report for our Republic Risk investors. All members, even monthly subscribers, get it. So… join us now. [Get 20% off for 1 year]( Wednesday, May 15, 2024 Event: Consumer Price Index Republic Speak: How many times do we have to go through this? “Higher for Longer.” Interest rates are not coming down, and if the Fed does cut rates, they’ll need to hike them again next year. Fear is heavy in this market… and if we go negative again… it will be on Wednesday. Button up… Thursday, May 16, 2024 Event: 13Ds… (previous day), Walmart (WMT) Earnings, Deere (DE) Earnings Republic Speak: Hedge funds must file their quarter reports by the end of the day on Wednesday. So, that will mean we’ll see a lot of price action on names linked to Bill Ackman and his rich buddies. When we look at these names, it will give us a nice crop of names to trade on the insider front. Remember, we don’t want to just buy because Ackman did. But we want to use credit spreads for a much lower price entry. It’ll be a great day for members of Republic Insider. We’ll be VERY active. Remember… we’re still running a 30% off special on Republic Insider… [Get 30% off for 1 year]( Walmart and Deere report earnings. Deere is my favorite AI company, and Walmart is a Bellwether name. They’re the biggest retailer and the biggest grocery store operator. 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart. Despite tight margins, it has an F score of 8… practically no debt… and solid momentum. That falls right in the bread and butter part of our coming portfolio strategy. Friday, May 17, 2024 Event: Nothing. Republic Speak: I looked over and over for something interesting on Friday. Nothing. Oh… there’s a rocket launch? Oh… some people in Alabama might join a union at an auto plant. In the words of former NFL quarterback [Jay Cutler in a Wrigleyville bathroom]( That’s all. We’re off to Mother’s Day Brunch. So… Happy Mother’s Day to moms everywhere. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()