Postcards: I Forgot...

Whether it's a popular restaurant or an asset class... never follow the crowd. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: I Forgot...]( Whether it's a popular restaurant or an asset class... never follow the crowd. [Garrett {NAME}]( May 11   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: Okay… okay… okay… I didn’t forget someone’s birthday. I didn’t forget an anniversary. But I’m scrambling. Mother’s Day snuck up on me. I found a last-minute pedicure appointment for my wife, but then my daughter started crying. She wanted to go too because her grandmother took her a few times. Now I’m paying 2X for a six-year-old and mom to get their nails done. Every restaurant is booked - including the one… our family owns. So, it’s time to zag while others zig. Maybe a picnic? Delivery? Join the waitlist at our own restaurant? Sit at the bar? We’ll figure it out. One thing’s for sure… we’re not following the crowd. [Upgrade to paid]( On The Crowd The last decade has fueled the Bubble of all bubbles. Bitcoin, [Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK)]( and FAANG stocks continue to defy valuation expectations. As we’ve noted, you can thank all the processes that have expanded liquidity globally. We can thank the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury for pumping an incredible amount of capital into the system - with more and more dollars fueling a run into equities. What’s the next frenzy? Clearly it’s all about Artificial Intelligence (AI). The “Bubble” - which we’ll define by outrageous valuations - is just starting. The challenge - especially for retail investors - is trying to determine if and when there’s going to be some correction. Momentum remains strong. But timing is very difficult (unless you’re following our Equity Signals on a daily basis.) You can speculate on the NVIDIA (NVDA) pick-and-shovel play… but we’ve seen wild volatility in some of these names (NVDA trades at 75 times earnings). My argument is to avoid the crowd. Instead, focus on great businesses that will benefit from the innovation… or they already have entrenched technological and social advantages in place today. There are many overlooked “AI businesses” that are still reasonably priced. Consider the A-class real estate companies that will see AI tenants invade their space. I’m not talking just about data centers… but the commercial real estate that will see a flood of new tenants focused. Consider the established [businesses like Deere & Co. (DE)]( and [Dominos Pizza (DPZ) that remain overlooked]( technology giants with reasonable valuations. Deere is perhaps the most innovative AI stock in the world that few people discuss. And Dominos - yes the pizza maker - is a better performing technology company than… Google. Consider the sheer amount of energy required for AI, and look to the pipeline giants that will deliver natural gas to hubs around the nation. Hallador Energy (HRNG) - a [coal company we’ve traded for a recent 28% gain]( - will give power to prospective Southwestern Indiana AI customers that are bringing data centers to the state. AI isn’t just about semiconductor names… It’s about a radical upheaval of the balance sheet, a massive cost reduction, and a potential boon for overlooked traditional equity names. Don’t forget this. I’ll be back tomorrow with our traditional weekly outlook and Republic Speak. For now… I’m off to buy some flowers. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()