Postcards: Rising in America

There's a new $1 bill... and we discuss the week ahead. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Rising in America]( There's a new $1 bill... and we discuss the week ahead. May 5   [READ IN APP](   A Rare Pre-Statement: I wouldn’t do this if it didn’t mean something. However, the chief economist of the White House, Jared Bernstein, doesn’t understand how the [U.S. bond market works](. This is the most embarrassing thing I’ve seen from an “economist” since Paul Krugman said the internet was a fad. Bernstein is a flippant, condescending, egotistical jerk. And it’s evident that his education at the Manhattan School of Music isn’t paying off. The music is stopping, but he can’t hear it. He allegedly taught economics at three universities. We should check on those people to ensure they aren’t eating grass… Of course, Krugman thinks Bernstein is a good voice for American workers. Of course, he failed up. Good grief. Where do we find these people? --------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Fellow Expat: I’m going to steal and cite a joke. Over the weekend, Syz Group - in its weekly recap - introduced the new $1 bill. Are you ready? Here it is. It’d be funny if not so tragic. Such is the world now dominated by Modern Monetary Theory. A friend—who rarely complains (and prefers to beat the system with real estate and crypto)—sent me [a recent video of Stephanie Kelton]( the Mad Queen of MMT, talking about how we can print money instead of borrowing it. You’ll think you’re Alice tumbling down a rabbit hole at six minutes in. It doesn’t take much to understand how printing money debases purchasing power. My father was the Director of Sales and Marketing at McCormick, the spice company, in the early 1990s. He made very good money. However, he never made the type of money companies paid once they started paying in stock and options due to the Clinton administration’s decision [to cap-pay deductions](. Last year, I matched his pay… nominally from 1993. It’s not as much as you expect. But it’s a handsome sum due to my work across three different gigs, a capacity for 100-hour weeks, and well-times investments. I did a sweep on this. … the difference in real dollars… is still 53% lower than what my father made in 1993 compared to what I made in 2023. I guess there’s still a LOT of work to do. In 2013, my father approached me at my Purdue graduation. That conversation is private, but what he said was the single most meaningful thing anyone has said to me… except for my wife screaming “I do” before our wedding officiant finished his pitch. Thing is… I haven’t monetarily surpassed my father. Still, I recognize, humbly, that I’m struggling. I’m just a case study of the last 30 years of reckless policy… and I’m not complaining. It just means I have way more work to do, and I hope you’ll profit off that journey. To recap the {NAME}s… My great-grandfather had $20 million in 1935. He left it to his mistress. Then… my grandfather was a cop. My other grandfather served in Burma and Korea and repaired ships in Baltimore harbor. My dad sold pepper. I’m in the business of batteries and bulldozing (metaphorically speaking). Hawthorne wrote: “Families are always rising and falling in America.” I’m glad about it. I didn’t want to be the kids drinking Grand Marnier in private clubs in Manhattan on a Tuesday at noon. I feel purpose and ambition. And the Florida Republic is my family. We are rising in America. The M2 Doesn’t Matter This is just a reminder to all my friends in the back that the M2 money supply isn’t the dominant force that you think it is. I heard people talk about the M2 contraction and how it predicted previous recessions and depressions. The Fed stopped caring about the M2 back in 1993 under Alan Greenspan. What has driven the big expansion of liquidity in the global markets? Shadow banking… commercial paper… It's a good thing our regulators are on top of this. CFAs do cover the role of shadow banking - specifically market dynamics, oversight, risks, and the roles and functions. MBA programs don’t cover it much. Everyone else… well, that’s the problem. There is still A LOT of antiquated knowledge dominating modern finance. That was a lot of words just to tell you that the M2 has turned positive for the first time since 2022. This chart comes from Syz Group via FRED. People keep wondering how the M2 was negative for almost two years, yet the stock market is at record highs. It’s because the M2 doesn’t matter. Wow We’re still in a currency and broader financial crisis. Need proof? The amount of money the Treasury Department is issuing has surpassed the 2008 crisis. This is all refinancing madness. We’re looking at $1.9 trillion this year. And we wonder how a Timonium, Maryland restaurant - not even very good - has to charge $45 for a half rack of ribs and a crabcake. (Fortunately, the Showstopper - a full rack of ribs and a crabcake at the Corner Stable - is $37. [That’s a 20% jump from 2013]( These are businesses just trying to stay in business. This fall, you’re going to hear some stupid political speak. I predict that a nominee will say, “No American should have to choose between paying for electricity or eating dinner.” Or “No American should have to choose between food and their medication.” Well… the people who have been in Washington for 50 years are why this false choice exists. They have destroyed our currency, and we know that inflation impacts the things that matter: Food, housing, education, and electricity. These people are frauds. Vote Austrian. Let’s put next week… into Republic Speak. Monday, May 6, 2024 Event: The Milken Institute Global Conference will feature guest speakers, including Pershing Square's Bill Ackman, Tesla's (TSLA) Elon Musk, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda, and New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams. Republic Speak: For some reason, Lou Reed linked up with Metallica for a song. It wasn't good. Stone Temple Pilots Scott Weiland lined up to form a Supergroup with Guns and Roses’ Slash, Duff, Matt Sorum, and Wasted Youth’s Dave Kushner. The result—Velvet Revolver—was what I thought was the most overrated band of all time. But then, somehow, it was topped by Mick Jagger (Rolling Stones), Joss Stone, Damian “Jr. Gong” Marley, Dave Stewart of Eurythmics, and A.R. Rahman, the Indian singer-composer behind songs from the film Slumdog Millionaire. They created whatever the hell this song is. This song offends all human senses. Putting Bill Ackman, Elon Musk, the head of the SEC, and John Williams (Fed) into a single conference is the financial experience of Miracle Worker. You’ll forget everything said - and everyone there serves their own agenda. You’re better off drinking table wine alone in a shoe store than listening to any of them. Tuesday, May 7, 2024 Event: Apple (AAPL) will likely announce new iPad products. Republic Speak: We keep thinking that Apple is the market. There are 458 ETFs with the stock in it. Nvidia is almost at that level. The markets have changed in recent years, and it’s clear that data is more important than oil in the U.S. economy. I don’t know what else Apple can do on hardware. They need to innovate, and I can only give them my fingerprint so many times. The company’s ecosystem is its moat. However, Apple is only one serious competitor’s innovation away from getting crushed. Stay long with Apple, but follow our technology signal. This range may be bound by $40 for the next decade. Wednesday, May 8, 2024 Event: Airbnb (ABNB) earnings. Republic Speak: A 2022 article said that there are 660,000 Airbnb listings. Interest rates are comical now… and one should expect inventory to decline. This is probably the cleanest real estate market measurement from a contrarian perspective. I’m stunned by this stock’s ability to defy gravity. It’s a short trap. Forget it exists. Thursday, May 9, 2024 Event: Bank of England monetary policy report. Republic Speak: Pay attention. It was 18 months ago that the Bank of England started buying bonds to prevent a liquidity crisis and stopped worrying about inflation. Yet the economy grew by a meager 0.1% last year. It’s now in a recession. If you need a preview of what life will resemble in 2025 or 2026 if we do successfully cut spending… it’s England. Who the hell is optimistic in the private sector right now? Friday, May 10, 2024 Event: Uber Celebrates 5 Years as a Public Company Republic Speak: The gig economy really celebrates five years with the fifth anniversary of Uber. The company priced its IPO in 2019 at $45. Shares are north of $65 now. I struggle with Uber as a company because of the whims of the government. As we’ve seen in places like Minnesota, politicians don’t understand the contractor model, and it California continues to think that Uber is a private employer. It’s not. It’s a tech company connecting drivers to riders. I’m never putting money into ride-sharing or Airbnb. The political risk is always in the back of my mind. I’d rather own a tech company that the U.S. government can’t touch. In fact,W we just recommended one on Wednesday. [Check it out…]( get your recommendation in Republic Risk. [Upgrade to paid]( Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()