Postcards: Fill The Blank Page... or Keep It Empty?

Another call to financial arms from the man just mad enough to live on ink and economics. Today, we talk about Postcards' origin story, a very distressed Gainesville bartender, and why we print daily. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Fill The Blank Page... or Keep It Empty?]( Another call to financial arms from the man just mad enough to live on ink and economics. Today, we talk about Postcards' origin story, a very distressed Gainesville bartender, and why we print daily. [Garrett {NAME}]( Apr 27   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: Editors and publishers challenge me to write less. They say I should only send this email twice a week. Why seven? Why not? About daily writing, I say this… Writing isn't a choice for the cursed few—it’s breathing with a pen. It acts like Albuterol—a quick fix for those mad enough to live on ink. Let me explain. [Upgrade to paid]( On the Road Again Last night, I was at a Gainesville hotel bar. I drank club soda and read Friday’s tape while the bartender broke down crying. The dogs and the family were asleep. I must have missed what led to her condition. Her introduction to me involved a lot of hands, tears, and throwing entire meals into the trash. Opening line: “I’m about to lose it, so what can I get you before they fire me?” As her regulars arrived, they consoled her. She likely had a record night for tips and advice. An hour later, she’d calmed down as I watched the end of the NY Rangers and the NFL draft. We then talked. She wasn’t a person living her best life. She’d graduated from Florida’s prestigious journalism program - but hadn’t put that work to life yet. I could identify. Even while I was in journalism school, I’d given up. I later forced myself to write a novel I’d never published at 24. It was a message to myself to write daily, to find anything—and make it my own. That feeling the bartender had - that’s part of the emotion of this publication's founding. Postcards began for three reasons. And each one is personal. Why Postcards Originated First, it was a joke. Here, I told myself and a few friends off-the-wall market commentary. I had an idea that Florida would one day wall itself off. We'd elect a dog president to avoid all the messy politics of humans. We'd hoist a flag that celebrated Deion Sanders. And here I'd be, writing these Postcards on a typewriter from a coconut outpost, checking in while America went insane. The joke evolved into more. Here, we'd set some rules. - You need a sports coat. - You need to keep your hands to yourself. - To mind your own business. - To avoid all the stupid politics that had overrun the Banana Republic to the north. - Remind yourself that the individual is ultimately - the agent of financial change. - Here, you should focus on yourself. Your wealth. Your health. - And leave that other bullshit that is outside your control aside. Second, the writing of Postcards was - my fundamental research process. I’d do a lot of reading, research, and statistics and write about it. That was my process in school. Writing about what I'd researched would better prepare me. I could articulate or argue a position when it came time to explain theory and functions on exams. I've done this since high school, but it took off as I grew older. But the third origin factor was the most important. Finding an Audience "Postcards" developed during my time at Money Map Press. As a “publisher” and “financial expert,” I relied on teams to market and share ideas with broad audiences. Postcards wasn't a daily letter yet. It was a 15-page research paper each week with financial insights and wisecracks. One of the original versions is right here. It’s raw, fun, extemporaneous, and off the wall. This is from August 14, 2022. Postcards August 14 5.68MB ∙ PDF file [Download]( In it, a few things. First, I'd discuss market momentum. Then I'd add some random gag. Then I'd add pictures of actors like Mark Ruffalo complaining about climate change. In the picture below, you can see him. He is demanding hedge funds stop investing in oil while hanging out the window of a limo. This is funny to me… This is clownish, hypocritical and hilarious to someone like me who studied environmental economics and doesn’t want government in charge of climate policy. Our original banner had a creepy dolphin from a children’s dentist's office and a coconut face. Was this supposed to be a serious publication? You be the judge. Look at the date. This example was the beginning of our market short into October 2022. It would lead to coverage and analysis of the coming GILT crisis. This example was right before our Equity signal turned red. This issue warned readers about a coming rug pull in the market. This was despite all the positive enthusiasm.. This was right before that dreaded Fed symposium that saw the market collapse from late August into early October. I'd tell everyone at the company that all this editorial was fair game for them to use. I didn't care. I would send it out on Slack to more than 100 people. If lucky, only six people would read it. I didn't get much feedback… little insight or knowledge on how to market it to the masses. I'd offered to hold office hours for all employees. I'd explain anything about the market to my team and my company. Only one guy - named Boom - regularly showed up. I'd still go on air for 16 hours a week. I'd research for 30. I'd write for another 18. And then I'd still write Postcards for months, although a dozen people read it on Sundays. The good thing - I would use a lot of it as monologue when I did my daily live show. Still, many coworkers didn't read my commentary. They were busy... I get it. Actually, I didn’t. Because I'd outlined my ideas and strategies - giving people what they needed to find an audience. Story ideas. Engaging headlines. Just… CONTENT. Eventually, I saw how few people in my company were reading it. I said to hell with this. At one point, I quit writing it for weeks, but I felt lost during that period. I leaned in even harder when I returned to writing it - on LinkedIn and via email. I started sending it to my father, my brother-in-law, and my friends in New York. It rebuilt it as an organic article. Then, I sent it to hedge fund managers, private equity teams, and RIAs. Finally, I sent it to Bill Bonner, Mark Ford, and Porter Stansberry. There was something here. Yes, it was long. Yes it was complex. It was ranting at times… sometimes a draft - the work of hours on a Saturday… Yes, some people had no idea what i was talking about… But it evolved again… and it became a daily process. A ritual. With rules, a voice, and a purpose. We’re Getting There Today, about 10,000 people open and read Postcards daily… and we still haven’t “marketed it.” We have a 39% open rate, and high engagement. People have signed up for more insights (Also daily) to better understand how markets operate. This includes portfolios, strategies, and ideas. The open rate for Republic Risk is around 50%. [Subscribe now]() Postcards will continue to grow. I know readers see we're onto something. We combine technicals, liquidity, momentum, and insider buying activity. We take what the market gives us. We've avoided every major selloff since the start (including this month's.) I told the bartender some of this... sparring her the market commentary. She wanted to return to journalism and writing. But she wasn't sure where to start. I just said: "Write every day." Who cares what it’s about? It’s that simple. Even if it’s for her. Postcards started for me… It’s the single biggest bet on myself that I’ve ever endured… But now it's yours too... as more people join and see what we're doing. She seemed to have cheered up. It was almost like someone had finally given her permission to write again. Author and professor Craig Vetter did this for me at Northwestern. I was 22, losing my passion for writing. (In that unpublished book, Vetter was the basis of a character named Faster Tannigan, who leads a young journalist around a standoff on the California border between a family of migrants and local militia). I told the bartender to look at Substack. It only takes one or two great articles to break through and inspire readers. I write this every day - even if it’s a B- piece - Sure, I could only showcase the A+ stuff… and skip three days, but you know what? That first skipped day is when something BIG happens in the market. That’s the day momentum goes negative. That’s the day a CEO or CFO buys something that catches our attention. That’s the day something funny, sad, and/or entertaining happens. That day I remember the joy of being a father and husband - although I'm convinced they’re slowly poisoning me with pencil lead and Paw Patrol. Today, my daughter mispronounced the word “breakfast” as “breakmast” - the only word she can’t quite master - and what seems to be the rampart between being a “little kid” and a “big one.” I smile hard every time she does that. This is a day we laugh, cry, think, and learn. Every day is… really. And the first intention is to share the human experience and knowledge that comes with it. In writing. Well, the editors say: “Could Postcards be shorter?” Of course, Postcards could be shorter. But I don't have time to do that… Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} PS: We’ll look at the week ahead tomorrow. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()