Postcards: It Already Happened (Part 2)

Weak growth, high inflation, higher for longer? We've seen this story before, and many people were caught off guard yet again. Plus - Pandemic COVID buys come home to roost. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: It Already Happened (Part 2)]( Weak growth, high inflation, higher for longer? We've seen this story before, and many people were caught off guard yet again. Plus - Pandemic COVID buys come home to roost. [Garrett {NAME}]( Apr 25   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: No surprise today on GDP or the core inflation numbers for the First Quarter are higher than expected. We have the PCE for April about to drop - and we should be in for a ride. I can’t trust many government entities anymore on their official data figures after this “Super Users” from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We had our primary warning sign at Republic Risk Letter - telling investors to hedge on April 4. Then, we saw a negative signal come in [hard and fast on April 12](. We saw an oversold bottom and a bull trap back to the 50-day - as we projected - and now a hard and fast drop that seems to have caught many people by surprise. So, let’s go through this one more time. Dear Fellow Expat: [We released a simple article on October 4, 2023,]( the market continued to slide into higher interest rates and what resembled a U.S. GILT moment. It was called “[It Already Happened]( This was not just a reminder that our Equity Strength Signal had turned red. It was a reminder that it had happened nearly three weeks prior, on September 14, 2023. And that it had done so on February 21, 2020; June 8, 2022; and March 7, 2023 - before very sizable selloffs that rocked retail investors. You see - most investors are now in this situation where it’s largely too late to sell. We’ve seen a 5% drop in the Nasdaq and a massive decline in semiconductors. Now - investors - freaking out from this pain and rising volatility… that’s where they start buying puts (when volatility is higher) or selling - where there’s a better argument to stay in this equity market for longer. I remind you that these letters we release are largely built around risk. I hate to lose more than I like to win… I played goalie in every sport - from hockey and lacrosse to soccer and hurling (don’t do the latter). So, when we talk about our correct calls - our hedging and our insights around the various short funds to use - I see that we’ve already made many saves and kept our team of investors in the game. While cash is usually the best option - as it will allow us to purchase more of the same stocks we want to own - simply knowing when and how to hedge is the first step. Only after you learn how we play defense can you learn how to play offense. And—as a reminder—this selloff already happened… on April 4… and was accelerated by a simple email from us with a simple subject line: “[Republic Risk: RED.]( in the first hour of trading on April 12. That is where we avoided the tsunami of selling. The question is whether you’re going to avoid the next one. What’s On Tap Next week, we open up our Portfolio with another pick with high upside and lower downside. And we’ll discuss momentum plays across the technology sector and consumer cyclical space. Some of the other names will surprise you. And don’t forget, we’re putting together our Midstream report for oil and gas investors preparing for a red-hot summer. If you’re looking for a place to put cash and build over the long term, we’ll show you how. The signals, the sectors, the portfolio, and these new reports… you’ll be glad to know that we’re playing defense here with the Republic Risk Letter. And when you’re ready to go on the attack - once this market does oversell itself - we’ll introduce you to the Insider strategy with an 88% win rate and a total return north of 80% this year. [Upgrade to paid]( As a constant reminder, it doesn’t matter what the news says. It doesn’t matter what Barrons writes about this weekend. It doesn’t matter what your friends talk about next month in the markets… Because our signals will tell us… when it’s time to act. And a few weeks later, when everyone else tries to tie headlines to trends… those moves typically have already happened. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()