Postcard: The Plot Against the Florida Republic (And the Week Ahead)

They're out there again... a velvety gathering... eager for us to make a mistake. Yes, my friends, a libertarian cannot sleep with the collective gathering in the night. For their cause burrows on. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcard: The Plot Against the Florida Republic (And the Week Ahead)]( They're out there again... a velvety gathering... eager for us to make a mistake. Yes, my friends, a libertarian cannot sleep with the collective gathering in the night. For their cause burrows on. [Garrett {NAME}]( Apr 7   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: Picture a velvety shroud of darkness beneath the moon’s silver sheen. It is here that a gathering of communist rabbits convenes. Their whispers barely rustle the leaves around them. You heard that right: rabbits. Comrades in furry coats, whispering revolution in my front yard, a stone's throw from where the capitalist dream has snored in blissful ignorance. That place: The Florida Republic. This velvety collective gathers several times each night. They pretend they’re eating. I notice—the dog’s notice. The latter regularly chase the rabbits off the property. I can’t help but notice how the rabbits gather, several at a time. Each revolutionary faces in a different clockwise direction, almost paranoid of the open discussions they hold. Indeed, they see the Florida Republic as an unjust place. Order is not what they seek, and hierarchy is what the comrades contest. Within our walls, the hierarchy is clear. My wife and I are rulers of this domestic domain. Next, our daughter. She sits at a tier unto herself. Then, there are the family dogs—Elsie and Gracie. Though the dogs may not sit on certain corners of the couch, they have full reign over the property and the backyard's lesser beings. That final tier includes those outdoor animals that come and go, taking what they want from my acreage without my complaint. There are Black Racer snakes, squirrels, mice, ibises, and these communist rabbits, hatching plans for a soft, furry uprising. Last night, however… changed my view of these creatures. My wife and I returned late from our first date night in some time. As we turned into the yard, I saw the rabbits before they saw me. If the car windows had been open, perhaps we could have heard their discussions, which ranged from outright ludicrous to cunningly clever. This time, 10 of them were facing one another in a circle—like a Soviet Round Table. This was no ordinary Midnight Thumper’s Assembly. I imagine they debated the best way to infiltrate the garage and, ultimately, the kitchen pantry. I know it’s their mission to liberate the Cheerios and scatter them in an egalitarian feast for all the yard's inhabitants. As they stood, six this time, gathered in a circle, nibbling on the grass, their stillness was shattered. My headlights beamed like spotlights on a stage suddenly thrust upon the actors. This little “Warren Council” scattered, each darting off in a different direction. The quiet of the night returned, the whispers replaced by the sound of a car door and the soft closing of a garage. I’ve yet to turn to real deterrence against these Fluffle Forums in the front yard. I could build a stronger border fence with my neighbor… but they continue to find ways around each investment. I could turn to 5 Shot and hang one around my neck like Leonardo DiCaprio in Gangs of New York. Or, I can reward the dogs… for each pelt they bring home. For now… it’s Sunday morning. They won’t return until the moonlight, and I have other things to do. We are at war… but they don’t know I see them “and hear them?” Now… let’s get to the Week Ahead and Republic Speak. [Upgrade to paid]( The Week Ahead The story of this market continues to be that there is a huge increase in gold prices. This is the latter cycle of a monetary game played by the Fed and Treasury. We’ve seen a lot of money made since the GILT Crisis in October 2022, but now we start to see a transition toward stability and emphasis on commodities. This chart from Bloomberg and cited by Andreas Steno Larsen and Syz Group screams “Pay attention” as capital rotates into the undervalued portions of the financial markets. Bloomberg, Larsen, Syz Group Gold pushing to $2,350 isn’t much of a surprise, and it’s something that we openly discussed back at $2,100 when we wrote the Hedge of Tomorrow report (Bitcoin was at $40,000 at the time). Of all the things I’ve read or watched this morning, I think [Michael Howell’s piece on declining U.S. wealth]( against global wealth… and wealth transfers connects. I am stunned by how few Americans own Gold…, and that will come back and bite them. Bill Bonner has done a series of terrific videos about what happens in monetary end games a few years ago. In one video from his home in Ireland, he noted that older generations “cling to their” paper money despite the crisis around them. This happened in Germany, Argentina, and everywhere else where fiat currencies broke down. It’s exactly what’s happening today. The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has been down more than 52% in 30 years… and retirees and pension holders are the ones most negatively impacted by the monetization of debt and the Fed’s continued Inflation Targeting efforts. Meanwhile, younger generations are doing two rather remarkable things - and signal a coming shift in this nation. - Turning away from white-collar work and developing a trade. - Using cryptocurrency as a tool that may fuel radical wealth transfers in the future. I don’t need any more cryptocurrency in my life, but last week, I bought some junk silver… just to have it. Silver is still undervalued against Gold, and it has far more industrial uses. Here’s the chart from Bloomberg and Markets & Mayhem. I had an excellent conversation with a gold and silver shop owner who walked me through the importance of owning products that are directly linked to government minting instead of through online or private minters. It’s not just forgery that is the problem… it’s the lack of demand for the latter’s products on the secondary market. I’ll talk more about this conversation in a post this week. Monday, April 8, 2024 Event: The Department of Justice holds its Third Annual Spring Enforcers Summit. It will feature conversations with FTC Chair Lina Khan and DOJ antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter. Republic Speak: I find the name of this summit a little odd… and can’t help but notice the timing of its launch in 2022. This event may explain the FTC’s ongoing focus on Apple (AAPL) and the administration’s focus on inflation. Remember, inflation is a monetary phenomenon… but it’s easier to blame companies than to look at the insane spending patterns of the last 30 years that helped fuel the consolidation of power for companies like Apple and led us to a highly concentrated corporate world. Once again, [I openly invite Lina Khan’s team]( examine Amazon’s accounts payable practices and how they negatively impact competition from the company’s own vendors on the Amazon platform. Three years in a row, I’ve been ignored. Tuesday, April 9, 2024 Event: Nasdaq releases its Short Report Republic Speak: We witnessed the largest uptick of volatility since August 2023, which preceded a surge in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. Hedge funds are very bearish right now. They’ve been aggressively shorting stocks at a very impressive clip. Wednesday, April 10, 2024 Event: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Fed Minutes, Delta Air Lines (DAL) earnings Republic Speak: This will be a very busy day. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will impact the Fed’s timeline for rate hikes. Few noticed, but the expectations for a July cut have shifted out to September… Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% and 3.7% (remember… inflation according to the Chapwood Index in the cities is double digits… so trust your eyes and not the numbers). That Core CPI figure is still well above the 2% target. Fed Minutes will update us on the “Higher for Longer” reality in markets. Meanwhile, we kick off earnings with Delta Air Lines (DAL). It’ll be a very important update on Americans’ discretionary income. Thursday, April 11, 2024 Event: OPEC Monthly Oil Report, Producer Price Index, CarMax (KMX) earnings. Republic Speak: I’m watching CarMax because I don’t see how used auto prices stay THIS elevated through the end of the year. OPEC will likely show that they’re still a bit behind on quotas. The global oil cartel will not be cut anytime soon. Do not discount rising oil prices this summer… and watch as administration officials blame Russia and Saudi Arabia for rising prices. But remember - we’ve drained our Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to 18 days of supply during THE LAST ELECTION. Competence is the fleeting commodity of America. Finally, the PPI arrives. These are NOT “wholesale” prices. They’re just the front of the supply chain… with oil prices rising, there could be a surprise. But recall that we’re artificially suppressing natural gas prices. Friday, April 12, 2024 Event: Bank Earnings Start… JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Citigroup (C). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index arrives. Republic Speak: With Friday falling on April 12… I would be a tad cautious heading into the end of the week. The reason is that it’s a day when investors can dump stocks to collect tax revenue and hand it to Uncle Sam. We’ll have insight into the impact on money markets and likely bank reserves by Tax Day on April 15. That said, historically, the final two weeks of April are positive. Keep your eye on our Equity Strength Signals - and we’ll go from there. Bank earnings should be good at the Too Big to Fail Level. It’s the following week with regional banks that will generate more attention. Bank of America (BAC) was downgraded by UBS (UBS) from Buy to Neutral. Tomorrow, we’ll be back with a full recap of macro insights ahead of earnings in Republic Risk Letter… [Upgrade to paid]( And we’ll revisit [our latest trade in Republic Insider.]( Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()