Postcards: The "War" Merger

And now... we witness one of the most perplexing decisions in the history of the West. Secretary Anthony Blinken - who has never NOT loved a war - says Ukraine will join NATO. This won't end well. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: The "War" Merger]( And now... we witness one of the most perplexing decisions in the history of the West. Secretary Anthony Blinken - who has never NOT loved a war - says Ukraine will join NATO. This won't end well. [Garrett {NAME}]( Apr 6   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: I’m taking Amelia to the pool today, but I wanted to share insight that is less market-related - and more geopolitical. Tomorrow, I’ll do my usual recap of the week ahead and offer an assessment of the state of the markets. In 2010, I sat in on a three-round security forum as part of my Global Security Studies program in Washington, D.C. We debated three exercises that day. All hypotheticals. - What would happen if alternative energy successfully replaced all oil and gas due to a radical discovery in less than six months? It was an exercise in managing the destabilized Middle Eastern economies and a deflationary spiral across U.S. supply chains and consumer budgeting. - A War Gaming (game theory) exercise in which Iran obtained a nuclear weapon (I was part of the “Iran” team - you don’t want to know the rest…) - A debate on whether NATO should allow the nation of Georgia to join the defensive organization. The last sounds boring as hell… but it couldn’t be more relevant today. This week, Sec. Anthony Blinken said that Ukraine will eventually join NATO, a decision that completely alters the history of the “defensive” union. There was ONE reason… and only one reason—that I never believed I’d see this day since the chatter about it started all the way back in 2014. The Reason The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a political and military alliance formed in 1949. Its membership consists of European and North American nations. Leaders established NATO for mutual defense and to maintain peace and security by collective defense against external aggression. The organization promotes “democratic” and” free market” values. It enables members to consult and cooperate on defense and security-related issues to solve problems and prevent conflict. Membership began with 12 nations. Twenty more countries joined over ten rounds (in 1952, 1955, 1982, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2017, 2020, 2023, and 2024). Turkey probably should never have joined due to its significant cultural differences, but it had guarantees in the wake of World War II. Estonia, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia raised some eyebrows in 2004 since they were all former Soviet satellites. But if you look across all 32 members… they have one key thing in common. And that’s what is so important about this situation. The Georgia Summit One of my professors pointed this out when talking about the nation of Georgia, a country that had been considered for NATO during the organization’s 2008 summit. None of them… had active war in their borders when joining and haven’t since. Adding Georgia would be the first major importation of war — an invitation for attacks given that Russia had taken territories from the nation during a brief war that still sees occasional skirmishes today. This would be an importation of war - heightening tensions and triggering the idea that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all NATO members. Ukraine would be even more insane. This is an active war… right now. Since any attack on a NATO country triggers action by all NATO members… it would put 33 nations at war with Russia the second another gun or bomb goes off. Anthony Blinken, who loves war more than I love Long Drink, must know this is impossible. But he’s going to say it anyway. Who Wins? So, let’s just be very blunt about who wins if this happens. First military contractors. Why build bridges in America when you can blow them up in Ukraine and rebuild them for five times the cost with no oversight? NATO countries aren’t typically that corrupt… but Ukraine is a blackhole when it comes to where the Second… Well, I’ll let you read the [Oakland Institute’s 2023 report on agricultural land]( and decide for yourself. [Bloomberg’s already reported t]( BlackRock and JPMorgan are assembling their own private venture… Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()