Postcards: Everyone Now an Expert in Maritime Freight... Everyone.

I don't have time for conspiracy theories... and I don't have time for Pete Buttigieg. Modern freight tried to thread a needle through an antiquated bridge in a port that isn't equipped for modern day ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Everyone Now an Expert in Maritime Freight... Everyone.]( I don't have time for conspiracy theories... and I don't have time for Pete Buttigieg. Modern freight tried to thread a needle through an antiquated bridge in a port that isn't equipped for modern day [Garrett {NAME}]( Mar 27   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: It’s the end of the quarter, so I’m waiting for the delivery of some gold. Then, after I get it… it’s off to the bank to drop this in a lock box. LOCK BOX! Michael Howell has global liquidity at an all-time high… and I’m preparing to fish for the afternoon. I don’t see the point in watching Paint dry ahead of Fed Governor Waller’s speech tomorrow. I’m more concerned that the Classic Rock channels in Florida are playing “Soundgarden” and calling them “old hits.” How old am I? Dear Fellow Expat: Imagine that you have worked with local officials and producers for 15 years on the coal supply chain in the State of Maryland. Imagine doing countless surveys for battery projects across all of the ports. Imagine conducting risk assessments on a 58-year-old bridge and advising the LNG plant on managing its risk. And then imagine… going on Twitter and reading: “Well, I think Obama produced a movie where a freight loses power and goes onto a beach, and this is TOO similar…” I don’t have enough vodka to put myself into the ground for this conversation… I know the Baltimore ports better than 99% of the global population. It’s weird to brag about… but it is what it is. I grew up there. I’ve worked there. I’ve negotiated machinery deliveries into these ports. My grandfather welded ships there. My uncle pushed sugar into the harbor while under the influence of 1970s cannabis. (That was a high-paying union job) I worked on multiple projects there, including coal, machine imports, auto risk assessments, and the bridge itself. I want to put batteries there for backup power, as it’s legitimately one of the BEST places for East Coast procurement. This collapse is the definition of a Black Swan. How could this have happened? Was the bridge pathway too narrow? The state has dramatically ramped up its port traffic. The structure wasn’t adequately protected. The freighter was loaded with “stuff” and about to leave for Sri Lanka… The Key Bridge is not some marvel of technology. It was opened in 1977. The Anne Arundel County population has more than doubled since that time, and the population of Baltimore is up 50%. It wasn’t designed to be the Port that rivals Rotterdam, Amsterdam. It’s Baltimore. There are fewer than 600,000 people there. People need to be asking real questions right now. Like… [Upgrade to paid]( Black Market Economics Steven Lord used to write a newsletter centered entirely around the Black Markets. He still might… he just doesn’t pick up my phone calls. But it was a brilliant letter that tracked the prices of everything from cocaine to hourly rates in prostitution. It wasn’t light reading, but it did hone in on one specific economic element that is hard to track: discretionary income. If drug and prostitution prices fell - it was a sign that the consumer didn’t have as much cash to burn as they may have in previous months. So - let me ask a question about the state of this bridge. How does this impact the multi-billion dollar drug trade in Baltimore? This was a television show: The Wire. The entire show critiqued capitalism (Stringer Bell was ‘the free market’), drugs, corruption, and the repetition of life in Baltimore. Recall that in the show - there is a severe disruption in the drug supply for the main characters in Season 3. That disruption allows an eager young dealer named Marlo to rise - and problems at the docks are a major theme since it’s where a lot of drugs come through. Let’s be honest about how heroin gets to the United States. It doesn’t come on a bus. It has to go through ports - and Baltimore’s “off the boat” connections are legendary. This event will impact transport, creating severe connections, battles over street corners, and upheaval. Baltimore is the 16th most dangerous city… in the world based on violent crime. [Not in America. In the world.]( The rankings are a little dated, but there was a time when it had more violent crime than Caracas, Venezuela. If Baltimore were smart, it would take this time to clear the corners and reset. It would focus on drug addicts struggling to overcome addiction while prices rise. It wouldn’t just pour money into the companies like Amazon and Under Armour. If you haven’t watched The Wire show - do it. It’s the best TV show ever created due to its brutal honesty about the “Greatest City in America.” When I was in college, people would ask me, “Is Baltimore like The Wire?” “No,” I answered… It’s worse. How to “Trade” The Bridge If you’re one of those people like my ex-producer - always asking how to trade a headling - there is a way to address Baltimore. CONSOL Energy (CEIX) is a highly capital-efficient coal producer that exports out of the Baltimore harbors. CEIX will see disruptions - as this is the second-largest export facility in the U.S. The coal will be diverted to places like Buffalo and Norfolk for now. But if anyone is dumb enough to sell CEIX right now, make a market for it and buy it. CEIX has no debt. It just keeps cranking out coal and selling it abroad. They’ll use the downtime in this terminal to retrofit it. They have so much cash; what else will they do? CEIX has an average price target of $105.00. It’s at $82.88. Investors win when a company keeps buying back stock and using cash flow to hike dividends. The F score is 8. Its ROIC is 28.5%. The stock is oversold with the five-day RSI at 30. This is an excellent opportunity to sell credit spreads… or buy and hold the stock. Enjoy. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()