Republic Risk: Light Reading from the Government (GEO Group)

Everyone has 14 hours to reach a 1,000-page bill before Congress passes another $1.2 trillion in spending. Good news... we're confident that GEO Group will get a massive windfall this weekend. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Republic Risk: Light Reading from the Government (GEO Group)]( Everyone has 14 hours to reach a 1,000-page bill before Congress passes another $1.2 trillion in spending. Good news... we're confident that GEO Group will get a massive windfall this weekend. [Garrett {NAME}]( Mar 22 ∙ Preview   [READ IN APP](   Equity Storm Watch Is GREEN on the S&P 500 and GREEN on the Russell 2000 It’s incredible, isn’t it? We’re just charging higher and higher, and we’ve been effectively still positive in the S&P 500 signal (barring a short reprieve in January) for nearly 17 straight weeks. Many people wonder why this market continues to behave with such reckless regard—such a massive melt-up.  As I’ve noted, we’re watching liquidity. On a global scale - as measured by Howell - it’s now at another all-time high. There’s a direct relationship between all available capital and credit and the performance of the global equity markets. But we’re also at a point where the U.S. equity markets comprise north of 70% of the MSCI World Index, a clear record. Money is crowding into the U.S. from all corners of the globe.  Next… it’s clear that the central banks are giving up on fighting inflation. As I noted months ago, advocates like Paul Krugman wanted the Federal Reserve to accept a higher inflation target. Consider 3% for inflation—and move on.  Now - this is insane to the average person who will watch their cash erode at a faster pace. However, to Keynesian economists like Krugman, inflating away debt is part of the long-term game around debt. With the U.S. facing massive fiscal problems in the coming years - eroding that debt is critical.  But to the trained macro-eye, there’s something wrong with the system. As I’ve noted, the U.S. needs to reform supply-side economic policy. The supply side remains hopelessly lost in this narrative, as massive government and bureaucracy impact the costs of the things that matter: housing, food, energy, and more. This Green energy transition is very inflationary, and this movement of manufacturing back to the U.S. is inflationary.  Mohamed A. El-Erian, Former CEO of PIMCO, told CNBC that the central banks can’t do more because the inflationary challenges are structural around the supply side of the economy. If they press too hard, they will push America and the world into recession.  So, what are they doing? They’re gambling—with pretty much the world’s future—that they won’t press us back into a massive round of inflation. And what’s worse? If energy prices do rise into the June meeting, we are in for another round of policy changes.  The Fed is saying it will cut ahead three times this year. Our economic leading indicators are not as rosy as some people might suggest. Manufacturing tends to lag, so there is still plenty of pain ahead in that part of the economy. So, they will cut and try to prevent a recession in Q4. How very political. The market is taking that as good news because monetary inflation has three natural hedges in today’s environment: equity markets, gold, and crypto. And all three are zooming higher and higher. Stay cautious, but keep dancing while the music is playing. I’m not as bearish as I was on Monday, but I’m stunned that the Fed will allow Equity Inflation to continue at this pace.  It’s a very odd feeling to make money - but know that something is wrong while doing it. Now, let’s turn our attention to Congress - which is about to issue billions of dollars more for our new “Follow the Money” darling... Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Garrett {NAME}. Claim my free post [Or upgrade your subscription. 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