Postcards: Huskies and Fiscal Hawks

Well... turns out there are better ways to make picks for college tournaments... just as there are to find great ideas in finance for your stock portfolio. Keep it simple. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Huskies and Fiscal Hawks]( Well... turns out there are better ways to make picks for college tournaments... just as there are to find great ideas in finance for your stock portfolio. Keep it simple. [Garrett {NAME}]( Mar 21   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: Yesterday, [I shot a quick video]( on the “2:35 phenomenon” during Fed Open Market Committee announcement days. The algorithms doing more than 80% of the market trading don’t care that the Fed’s fiscal hawks have signaled a “higher for longer” interest rate policy into 2025-26 (when the problems start). Shorts continue to get crushed - and we continue to scream higher - and the S&P 500 remains well above its 200-day moving average. Only in America. We’ve been higher on the S&P 500, NYSE, Nasdaq, and Russell. The music plays on for now. --------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Fellow Expat: [I was here on Monday]( about how I approach my NCAA bracket pools. I prefer to use a Quantitative Approach, which has paid off in two of the last four years. But, as you might expect, that simply leads to second-guessing games and ignoring important things—like luck or the city where they’ll play. I changed a few results because of random bias, and this year’s tournament field bugged me until last night. I have two brackets. One has Connecticut over Houston (this feels like a “chalk tournament” to me) and that quant-based Iowa State over Creighton in another. I had an open bracket left for a charity pool that I do each year. I offered it to my six-year-old daughter, Amelia. She made her own selections (with a little fatherly advice on how to approach her decisions). She was resistant to how long and tedious filling out a bracket is (a whole 15 minutes). We went game by game on the ESPN tournament screen. All 63 of the tournament. Naturally - she asked when considering every matchup - “Which team is better?” I said I’d tell her who is ranked higher. But she had to consider two things first. I asked two questions. First, which team name (effectively their mascot) did she like more? If she liked one mascot/team name more, she’d pick them. But if she didn’t care about either mascot, she would base her decision on what team logos she preferred. Then, and only then, if she shrugged at both (which happened a few times), I’d tell her that the people who watch this professionally rank the teams based on their season performance before the tournament. Therefore, if she couldn’t decide on either variable, she took the team with the higher BPI ranking. You’ll laugh at this if you’re a sports fan, quant trader, or just a parent... - In the first game to decide (and ultimately the entire East region), she instantly fell in love with the "Husky” logo of UCONN (the best team in the tournament and a No. 1 seed). Because of the team name/mascot, she wants to watch all of their games. She would have taken the Illinois “Fighting Illini”(the state where she was born) further, but they would play The Huskies in the Elite Eight of her bracket. “It’s adorable…” - In another region, she loved Arizona’s logo, which was a giant “A for Amelia.” She didn’t like the name “Wildcat” because she wanted to know “what kind of wildcat it was.” You’ll see that teams with real Wildcat names get pretty far, like the Vermont Catamounts. We had to Google what a Catamount is. [I didn’t tell her that they are extinct](. “A” for Amelia - In another region, she ended up with Marquette (a No. 2) seed because they are the “Golden Eagles.” This is similar to the name of our street in Florida. She probably would have taken the Florida Gators further… if not for their facing Marquette’s Golden Eagles in the second round. “I like the one named after our street…” - And in the final region, she had Purdue - because I went there for graduate school, and she has seen the Boilermaker logo for years and years. She finds his face hilarious. She mentioned this…four times before the Final Round. “Purdue Pete… Yes… Purdue Pete.” She chose two No. 1 and two No. 2 seeds purely based on logos, team names/mascots, and rankings if necessary. She has the Huskies, “I love the Huskies,” beating Marquette’s Golden Eagles in the National Championship. And that’s just as rational as any approach I could foresee. She has compelling upsets - like Colorado State going far because she just watched a video about Rams butting heads. She took two 13 seeds that might win their games. This is her bracket… It’s surprisingly… sane. And here I was, thinking research would help. I won’t be surprised if she wins the whole damn charity event. Alligators Can’t Spell Throw Away the Math Sometimes Many people have told me to slow down… write less… and focus on the deeper meaning and bolts of stories. How I need to take the time to flesh out ideas. To use my investigative journalism degree more than the Quantitative Methods one. I agree. It’s just very hard to get off the treadmill after years of market-watching. But here was a perfect example of how to reach the same destination in about one-eighth of the time. I preach a quantitative approach all the time. It’s a fantastic way to manage risk and find compelling opportunities. However, there might be better ideas for finding investable assets. Some opportunities don’t fit the metrics that I prefer. We must find our “Golden Eagles” and “Rams” by looking elsewhere. These opportunities that may pay off are all around us… some right in front of us. And what timing this is… Our Latest Idea for 2024 And Beyond About three weeks ago, Scott tossed me an idea. As I dug into the company—knowing just a little about it… its founding compelled me. It started after a fistfight between two former FBI agents in the 1950s. And it gets more compelling the deeper we dive into its rich history and connections with government trends and threats to the nation. Shares are up 12% in a month and 80% in a year. But it would technically fail the “reversion approach” at this moment. (It may have been quantified… last year). It’s become a momentum stock with another 40% to 50% upside on tap… Catalysts do help. This week, there were two major ones for this name: a massive Supreme Court case that changed immigration policies in Texas and a huge check that Homeland Security will receive over the next year ahead of the election. We just announced that company this morning ahead of our planned April discussion. Over the next few issues, we’ll explain the financial outlook and two major catalysts regarding separate Republic Risk issues. Finally, we’ll discuss how to invest in it… or trade it if that’s your speed. All that matters is seeing the opportunity and choosing your risk and reward preference. [Upgrade to paid]( Once your brackets are busted this weekend, join us and experience the various ideas and strategies we discuss regularly. Last night was a great lesson, as kids are great teachers. It’s funny because I ended up with one bracket with three of her four picks… If you think in numbers too much… you’ll probably do too much analysis all day and miss the good things in life. I could have just looked at that silly Boilermaker on the wall and smiled while writing “Purdue” into the finals. There are still about 40 minutes to decide if I want to follow her approach. I just might this year. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()