Why You Shouldn't Worry About An Overweight Market
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July 30, 2020
Why You Shouldn't Worry About An Overweight Market
By Amber Hestla
[Amber Hestla]
Stock prices are going up, which means many investors are... worrying?
(To be honest, it almost seems like some investors spend all of their time worrying.)
[In March](, as stocks were falling, investors were worried about a bear market. [As the recovery began later that month](, they were worried stocks were moving up too fast.
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Now, investors and analysts are worried that big companies are getting too big. [CNBC recently noted](:
"Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook and Tesla now account for almost half (49%) the value of the index, which consists of the 100 largest publicly traded nonfinancial institutions.
The S&P 500 gets 22% of its value from five of those companies, up from 17.5% just six months ago.
The six now make up almost 41% of the Nasdaq, which has more than 2,700 member companies."
This is an interesting worry to me. Goldman recently shared a chart showing the concern to their clients.
Why This Might Not Matter As Much As You Think...
Looking at that chart, I see a move that's similar to what we saw in 1999 as tech stocks peaked. That's what bears are seizing on. But the top five stocks also accounted for more than 18% of the index in the early 1980s. Back then, oil stocks dominated the index.
Source: [ETFDB.com](
Just look at this historical price chart of Exxon. The oil giant gained almost 500% in the 1980s.
Other oil companies also did well in the 1980s. So did IBM, AT&T, and the other companies that were responsible for the concentration of the S&P 500 in that decade.
In fact, the stock market began an 18-year bull market in 1982 while investors were worrying about how the index was top-heavy.
Based on the history, a relatively large weighting in the top five stocks is either a warning of a market crash or the setup for a bull market.
The next chart confirms the relatively narrow market is not a concern. This chart compares the S&P 500 Index with the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index. In the equal-weighted index, each stock carries the same weighting; that index has slightly outperformed the cap-weighted index where the top five holdings account for 22% of the index.
What Really Matters
Simply put, the data doesn't support the worry that the relative top-heaviness of the market is a prelude to a crash.
[Last week, I explained]( that I am bullish on the index, and I noted that earnings would be a catalyst for the next big move in stocks. So far, about a quarter of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported results for the most recent quarter.
I expected a strong quarter relative to expectations. And so far, that's what I'm seeing. With 26% of companies in S&P 500 reporting, 81% beat EPS expectations. That's well above the five-year average of 72%.
On average, earnings per share is 11.4% above expectations, more than double the five-year average beat of 4.7%. A similar pattern is seen for sales, with 71% of companies beating estimates compared to the five-year average of 60%. Revenue is an average of 3.0% above expectations (five-year average: +0.7%).
By lowering estimates, analysts have done all they can do to help companies. I believe we will continue to see better-than-expected earnings reports for the next few weeks and higher stock prices as optimism briefly displaces the worries of investors.
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