What does a bottom look like?

[View this email in your browser]( If you can believe it, we are now closing in on a full year in this bear market... and of course, with a bear market that has been going on for so long, it is only human nature to ask, "when will there be a bottom?" Totally. In my opinion, it is very difficult to figure out what a bottom is going to look like beforehand. While perfectly timing a bottom is difficult, there are a few things that history points to that are similar to all bottoms (100% of bottoms): 1) all market bottoms have come after a VIX > 45; the VIX is currently at $25, down from a high of $38.94 set in January 2) all market bottoms have come after the Fed begins cutting rates; the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points to 3.75% and is expecting to not be done raising rates until they reach 5% by February 3) all market bottoms have come after the 2-year yield goes down by 50 basis points; last year 2-year yields were 0.41%, and today they are 4.72% 4) all market bottoms have come after the Federal Funds Rate exceeds the 2-year yield; currently, the 2-year yield is 4.72% and the Federal Funds Rate is 3.75% This could absolutely be the cycle/bottom that defies that 100% track record of history, however, I personally will not be saying "buy it all" until the following happens: 1) the Fed starts cutting rates aggressively towards 1 or 0% 2) the 2-year yield goes lower by 100 basis points AND is lower than the Federal Funds Rate 3) the Fed signals the money supply will start to increase in the future I hope I am wrong. I hope I already missed the bottom. History however says the low is not in. Stay small and win more trades, Steven STONY BROOK SECURITIES LLC IS A PUBLISHER AND DOES NOT OFFER TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATIONS. ALL INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT AN OFFER OR A RECOMMENDATION TO TRADE FUTURES CONTRACTS, STOCKS, OPTIONS OR FOREX. GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS REQUIRE DISCLOSURE OF THE FACT THAT WHILE THE TRADING IDEAS AND TRADING METHODS SHOWN ON THIS WEBSITE MAY HAVE WORKED IN THE PAST; BUT PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. WHILE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PROFITS THERE IS ALSO A HUGE RISK OF LOSS. A LOSS INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS, STOCKS, OPTIONS OR FOREX CAN BE SIGNIFICANT. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION SINCE ALL SPECULATIVE TRADING IS INHERENTLY RISKY AND SHOULD ONLY BE UNDERTAKEN BY INDIVIDUALS WITH ADEQUATE RISK CAPITAL. AN INVESTOR COULD POTENTIALLY LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT. [FULL INVESTMENT RISK DISCLOSURE]( Copyright © 2022 Stonybrooksecurities LLC, All rights reserved. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](. Questions? Contact support@stonybrooksecurities.com