4,200 = New Bull Market?

The melt up for stock prices continues as investors find fewer reasons to sell these days... [StockNews.com](~/AAPxiwA~/RgRmInbwP0QWaHR0cHM6Ly9zdG9ja25ld3MuY29tL1cDc3BjQgpkPznzP2QNNEg4Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW44OUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAE~) Dear StockNews Member; The melt up for stock prices continues as investors find fewer reasons to sell these days thanks to bank crisis headlines fading in the rear-view mirror. + inflation is clearly coming down. + early earnings season results are better than expected So, does this mean we are ready to coronate the new bull market? Not so fast! The rest of the story is shared below in this week’s... Market Commentary First and foremost, please be sure to join me this Thursday 4/20 for my webinar presentation: [10 Minutes a Month to Beat the Stock Market.](~/AAPxiwA~/RgRmInbwP0Q3aHR0cHM6Ly9yZXBvcnQuc3RvY2tuZXdzLmNvbS9saXZlLWV2ZW50L3Bvd3Itc2NyZWVuczEwL1cDc3BjQgpkPznzP2QNNEg4Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW44OUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAE~) Yes, RTR shows you one good way to tame the market. While this vital presentation will show another way that deserves your full attention. In fact, going back to February 2021 I have used this 10 minute a month approach to generate a real life $124,141 gain in my Roth IRA portfolio. Yes, that includes impressive gains in 2022 while the bear market ravaged most other portfolios. Full details are shared on the webinar. As well as step by step help from me to get you on the same track in the weeks and months ahead. [Click here to register for webinar now >](~/AAPxiwA~/RgRmInbwP0Q3aHR0cHM6Ly9yZXBvcnQuc3RvY2tuZXdzLmNvbS9saXZlLWV2ZW50L3Bvd3Itc2NyZWVuczEwL1cDc3BjQgpkPznzP2QNNEg4Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW44OUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAE~) (p.s. Even if can’t make it live, just register now and we will send you the replay video to watch when more convenient for you). Back to today’s market commentary... It appears that the melt up to previous highs near 4,200 is firmly in place barring some shocking headline like another banking collapse. You can just see that there is virtually no resistance to going higher of late and how at the end of most sessions we almost always tack on some extra gains. The last time the S&P 500 market fell more than 1% was back on March 22nd. Since then, 12 of the last 18 sessions have been in positive territory with an impressive total gain of +5.5%. This all feels quite bullish. But before loading up the truck on stocks, please realize there is serious resistance overhead at 4,200. That is where we got stopped out in early February. But also above that many would consider the start of a new bull market (20% above the October lows of 3,491). Reity, are you saying that if we breakout above 4,200 then the bear market is dead...long live the bull market? I wish it were that easy. For example, below is a chart going back to the Great Recession. In late November 2008 through early January 2009 the market rallied over 20% to be called a new bull market. Yet that was a false positive as it quickly gave way to a new round of selling finding much lower lows by March. (can't get image to upload into email properly...[so see chart here >](~/AAPxiwA~/RgRmInbwP0RXaHR0cHM6Ly9zdG9ja25ld3MuY29tL3dwLWNvbnRlbnQvdXBsb2Fkcy8yMDIzLzA0L1NQLTUwMC1jaGFydC1sYXRlLTIwMDgtYnVsbC1tYXJrZXQuanBnVwNzcGNCCmQ_OfM_ZA00SDhSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjg5QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAQ~~)) So, if a breakout above 4,200 is not an “all clear” signal...then how does someone invest right now? As long as the Fed remains hawkish it leaves the door open to a future recession. That is because keeping rates higher for longer is akin to stepping on the brakes of the economy. Stocks will never race ahead into clear bull market until the Fed lets off those brakes and the fear of recession fades. This limits upside for now. What will create renewed downside is that the fears of recession become reality. That mostly will be seen from a combination of negative GDP and job loss. Thus, it pays to keep a close eye on the [GDP Now model from the Atlanta Fed](~/AAPxiwA~/RgRmInbwP0QvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXRsYW50YWZlZC5vcmcvY3Flci9yZXNlYXJjaC9nZHBub3dXA3NwY0IKZD858z9kDTRIOFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luODlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAB) to monitor one of the most proven models for predicting economic growth or decline. Then on the employment front, many people will want to see the pain in the Government Employment Situation report which comes out the first Friday of each month. However, leading indicators of what shows up there can be found by monitoring weekly Jobless Claims every Thursday. The closer that gets to 300,000 per week...the more likely that job loss is taking place and the unemployment rate will move higher. Obviously, a fresh round of negative headlines on the banking sector would have us quickly in sell off mode. That is because shockwaves there will further limit access to credit which is another form of stepping on the brakes of the economy increasing the odds of recession. Let’s not forget that the previous FOMC Minutes showed that many members are increasingly worried that the bank events to date are already enough to lead to recession by years end. When you add it altogether it is fair to say we are in a state of limbo. Could be bullish. Could be bearish. But most definitely is uncertain. The best thing to do in this kind of environment is to stay invested in quality stocks which have a chance to rise no matter the circumstances. That is why I stress the benefits of our POWR Ratings which gives customers a tremendous edge. This also explains our focus on the Top 10 Small Caps list that will also be featured in my next webinar Thursday April 20th @ 4:15 pm ET. Let me take a step back for a second. Even a 43 year investment pro like me gets tired talking about market direction. Wouldn’t it just be better putting all that aside to simply invest in the best stocks to grow your portfolio. That is exactly what I started to do in February 2021 when I turned over my Roth IRA account to an investment approach that focuses on the very best POWR Ratings stocks. Best of all, it only takes 10 minutes a month. (not a typo). $124,141 in real life gains is what I have to show for this effort. And yes, it even plowed ahead in 2022 as the bear market mauled most other portfolios. On Thursday April 20th @ 4:15pm is when I explain how you could enjoy the full benefits of this easy, yet potent investment process. Please reserve your spot now! [Click Here to Register >](~/AAPxiwA~/RgRmInbwP0Q3aHR0cHM6Ly9yZXBvcnQuc3RvY2tuZXdzLmNvbS9saXZlLWV2ZW50L3Bvd3Itc2NyZWVuczEwL1cDc3BjQgpkPznzP2QNNEg4Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW44OUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAE~) (p.s. Even if you can’t join the live event, we will still send you an on demand replay you can watch when available. So be sure to register now). Wishing you a world of investment success! Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”) CEO, StockNews.com and [Editor, Reitmeister Total Return](~/AAPxiwA~/RgRmInbwP0QnaHR0cHM6Ly9yZXBvcnQuc3RvY2tuZXdzLmNvbS9ydHJzaWdudXAvVwNzcGNCCmQ_OfM_ZA00SDhSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjg5QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAQ~~) This email was sent to {EMAIL} You are receiving this email because you opted in at our website at StockNews.com. 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