What Do You Think, Steven?

[View this email in your browser]( I get hundreds of emails each week from our members of Steven Brooks Trading, but at the end of the day, the two most frequently asked recent questions are: 1) Where is the market going 2) What will happen with Ukraine and Russia I'll start with the second one, then go to the first one. The second one, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the reality of the situation looks pretty unclear to me. The White House is saying an all out war is imminent, while the President of Ukraine and the Foreign Minister of Russia are both saying war is not imminent. In fact, the President of Ukraine is calling a [national holiday this Wednesday]( which is the same day the White House says the invasion will begin. To try to predict what is going to happen here in my opinion is impossible as we likely won't know any truth until after the fact. The first one, where is the market going. I do believe my personal opinion on the market has been consistent. While I have "only" been in the market for 13 years, I believe the trend in equities is always a factor of what the Fed is doing. I personally believe that earnings don't matter, mergers and acquisitions don't matter, and new products don't matter, it's just the Fed. In my opinion, and quite frankly nobody can convince me otherwise, but in my opinion, if the Fed is keeping the cost of money low (interest rates) and is increasing the money supply, stocks go higher. If the Fed is raising the cost of money (interest rates) and is increasing the money supply, stocks don't go up. So let's assume for a moment my personal opinion is correct, that when the Fed is easing stocks go up, and when the Fed is tightening stocks go down, the only real question I ask myself to determine the trend of the market is... "Is the Fed easing or tightening?" Right now, they are tightening. Right now, there is nearly a 100% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and even a 30% chance of a rate hike in February. Right now, the Fed is also signaling they would like to reduce their balance sheet from 9 trillion to 7 trillion. What does that sound like to you? It sounds like tightening. Stay small and win more trades, Steven STONY BROOK SECURITIES LLC IS A PUBLISHER AND DOES NOT OFFER TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATIONS. ALL INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT AN OFFER OR A RECOMMENDATION TO TRADE FUTURES CONTRACTS, STOCKS, OPTIONS OR FOREX. GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS REQUIRE DISCLOSURE OF THE FACT THAT WHILE THE TRADING IDEAS AND TRADING METHODS SHOWN ON THIS WEBSITE MAY HAVE WORKED IN THE PAST; BUT PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. WHILE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PROFITS THERE IS ALSO A HUGE RISK OF LOSS. A LOSS INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS, STOCKS, OPTIONS OR FOREX CAN BE SIGNIFICANT. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION SINCE ALL SPECULATIVE TRADING IS INHERENTLY RISKY AND SHOULD ONLY BE UNDERTAKEN BY INDIVIDUALS WITH ADEQUATE RISK CAPITAL. AN INVESTOR COULD POTENTIALLY LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT. [FULL INVESTMENT RISK DISCLOSURE]( Copyright © 2022 Steven Brooks Trading LLC, All rights reserved. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](. Questions? Contact support@stevenbrookstrading.com