Today's Telling Market Reaction

Inflation doesn't matter anymore, they say... What to make of today's market action... The bullish case... That doesn't mean the story can't change... Bitcoin reaches an important point... A personal story... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Inflation doesn't matter anymore, they say... What to make of today's market action... The bullish case... That doesn't mean the story can't change... Bitcoin reaches an important point... A personal story... --------------------------------------------------------------- Inflation is up... yet the market chugs higher... This morning, Uncle Sam released the latest inflation report... The headline consumer price index ("CPI") rose 0.4% in February. That's more than double the Federal Reserve's 2% annual rate if you annualize the number. And the annual change came in at 3.2%, higher than expectations. The quick takeaway: The pace of inflation appears to be accelerating. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, core personal consumption expenditures ("PCE"), also rose 0.4% in January. Now, you might be asking... isn't that a bad thing? Well, yes, for people like you and me (Corey McLaughlin) and the hundreds of millions of others paying for things in dollars every day... But enough investors today not only shrugged at the latest CPI numbers but saw them as a bullish sign. The major U.S. indexes chugged higher after a two-day slide, and the benchmark S&P 500, which was up about 1%, hit a new all-time high again... all while U.S. Treasury bond yields rose. Among the day's biggest leaders were tech names Oracle (ORCL), up 12%, Nvidia (NVDA), up 5%, and Meta Platforms (META), up 3%. Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Netflix (NFLX) were each up 2%. A cross-section of American industries, including Costco Wholesale (COST), Walmart (WMT), United Parcel Service (UPS), IBM (IBM), Adobe (ADBE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Wells Fargo (WFC), and 3M (MMM), which announced a new CEO, were also near the top of the leaderboard, all up at least 1%. What to make of it... The market's reaction today is telling behavior to me. It wasn't that long ago when a decimal point of inflation data in the wrong direction (higher than Wall Street's expectations) would roil the markets and lead to a big down day. In 2022 and 2023, investors and traders believed higher-than-expected inflation meant that interest rates were likely going to go higher, as influenced by the Fed's suggested bank lending rate, which filters through interest-rate-sensitive sectors and on through the entire U.S. and global economy. But today, a small overshoot in U.S. inflation expectations doesn't seem to be a big deal to investors and traders, at least not yet. It's a sign of the prevailing sentiment in the market today... The bullish case... Investors seem to be taking Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his word that the central bank "will" lower rates in 2024. The point, for anyone who believes this, is that relatively soon financial life will get easier than it has been the past few years. Checking on the federal-funds futures market... it reflects the idea that rates will stay where they are through May at least, with odds jumping from 80% to 90% today. And expectations for a continued pause in June rose slightly, too. Add it up and here's the bullish argument: There's conviction in a continued Fed "pause" while reported GDP growth is more than 3%... unemployment is less than 4%... and there's the promise of rate cuts coming, despite inflation numbers accelerating the past two months. There are other bullish indicators too... For example, we're in a presidential-election year, which conversely to what your gut might tell you, has historically been a bullish catalyst for stocks. The number of NYSE-listed stocks trading above their longer-term, 200-day technical moving averages is also around 60% and has been the case since the start of the year. The S&P 500 Index is trading well above its longer-term average too, like you would expect to see in a bull market, as Stansberry Research editor Brett Eversole shared in today's edition of DailyWealth... There are a few important points worth revisiting in the above chart, aside from the March 2020 panic, because sometimes it's easy to get lost in the daily price-action noise. As you can see, there was a broad market top in late 2021 through early 2022 as the super-low interest rate and pandemic stimulus market mania fizzled... a bottom in October and November 2022 when it looked like "peak inflation" had been reached... and a choppy rally into 2023 that took off thanks to AI buzz. Then there was a market correction through the middle of last year (consistent with [a recession expectation sell-off](... followed by the powerful ongoing rally we've seen since the low on October 27, 2023. The S&P 500 is up 25% since then. That doesn't mean the story can't change... As we just described, it often does. Perhaps today's setup is leading to one huge surprise. You can look at stock market valuations that make you scratch your head... or the troubled state of commercial real estate and wonder how far the fallout will spread... That's why it's always wise to prepare for various outcomes and keep them in mind when making investment decisions. If the present narrative shifts – and Powell made a boo-boo by making promises he can't keep if inflation keeps going higher or another risk upends things – the market could be in for a big adjustment. One asset that's zigging as stocks zag... Early Monday morning, bitcoin (BTC) – which trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week – broke above its previous all-time high of around $69,000 to top $71,000 for the first time ever... The catalyst was early morning news from abroad. Here's an excerpt from crypto news outlet CoinDesk's story, posted at 4:11 a.m. Eastern time on Monday... The U.K.'s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said it will not object to requests from Recognised Investment Exchanges (RIEs) to build a listed market segment for crypto asset-backed exchange-traded notes (ETNs), the regulator said in a press release on Monday, a further sign of the increased institutionalization of cryptocurrency markets. The products would be available to professional investors, including investment firms and credit institutions, the FCA said. ETNs are a type of exchange-traded product, often issued by a bank or an investment manager, that tracks an underlying index or assets. This is how mainstream financial system crypto adoption started several years ago in American markets. Bitcoin traded at nearly $73,000 at one point yesterday, before pulling back to less than $72,000 as we write. As we've said before, bitcoin and cryptos are extremely volatile. But all in all, the world's most popular cryptocurrency is still in a breathtaking run higher, up 60% since the start of 2024, and 220% in the past year. An important level for bitcoin... Bitcoin's previous all-time high of around $69,000 is an important level to watch. If the price holds above there, that means an important previous technical "resistance" level may have turned into "support." Our colleague Chris Igou frequently uses these technical levels, which can also take the form of moving averages, in his DailyWealth Trader publication. As Chris explained [in a recent issue](... Support is a level at which folks tend to buy an asset and prices often stop falling. Think of it as an obstacle for falling prices. Resistance is a level at which folks tend to sell an asset and prices often stop rising. So it's an obstacle for rising prices. Either way, if an asset breaks through support or resistance, it will often continue in that same direction. You can also think of support and resistance like the numbers an auctioneer yells. If no one buys at $20,000, for example, the auctioneer has hit resistance and might start yelling lower numbers around $15,000 to get a bid that could mark support. If bitcoin continues heading higher above $70,000, the behavior would fit with Crypto Capital and Stansberry Innovations Report editor Eric Wade's idea that [this present crypto bull run has plenty of room left](. However, if it falls below this level, it could be a sign that more downside is ahead. Still, in [a Crypto Capital video update on Friday]( Eric said "bitcoin could drop $20,000 and not invalidate that we're in a bull market." He also shared an indicator that has coincided with the past few major bitcoin "tops" in 2017 and 2021... and explains why it shows we're not near one now. Eric also talked about the role spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have played in this bull run... what "Truflation" shows today compared with U.S. government inflation data... notes about Ethereum's upcoming upgrade... and a whole lot more. As always, Crypto Capital subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find Eric's exclusive research, including weekly videos, monthly issues, and model portfolio updates [here](. And subscribers to Stansberry Innovations Report, which covers cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, along with other emerging trends beyond crypto, can find all of Eric's research [here](. If you're interested in learning more about Stansberry Innovations Report, [click here](. Lastly, a personal note... This comes from Ken Millstone, a Stansberry Research employee. You should have seen an e-mail from him earlier today, but I want to make sure everyone gets a chance to hear his story... As Ken explains, he works behind the scenes. But he has decided to step forward publicly to share a message that he wants absolutely everyone to know. It's a personal story about how Ken overcame decades of physical and emotional pain... his struggle with alcohol... what happened the night he almost died... and the real reason why he's now able to watch his 8- and 11-year-old sons grow up. Ken is sharing all of this because he wants to set the record straight with as many people as possible about the technology that he says saved his life... why it truly matters to real people... and how it's tied to what will likely be one of the biggest financial opportunities of the next several decades. As Ken said in his note today... Now, I've been at Stansberry for more than a decade... And I can say with total certainty that [my new message]( is unlike anything you've seen during that time, or even before. Yes, it does involve a financial opportunity... A massive one. [Smart folks are predicting this situation will be bigger than AI – and trillions are at stake](. But there's a very specific reason why I'm the one talking to you about this today. See, I'm a part of it... Ken says almost everyone in the media and investing world is getting this story dead wrong. If you understand it, though, it can be life changing. It was for him. [Click here for his message now](... and learn how you can take advantage of the opportunity he's talking about... and why he believes it's just getting started. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [Stansberry Research Employee: 'This Technology Saved My Life']( In over 20 years, we've never done this. But one of our employees – not an analyst or anyone you've met before – is taking the "mic" to tell everything. His story is unlike anything you've ever seen. And it holds the secret to a generational opportunity you won't be able to ignore after you've seen it. [Warning: This is extremely personal](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Bitcoin Dollar Warning]( There's a strange new situation unfolding behind the scenes in the U.S. banking system. It's connected to bitcoin and other leading cryptos... but it could have much wider implications for the U.S. dollar and American banking system. The Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and 41 major banks are all involved – and plotting radical changes for America's money system. [Here's the full story](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 3/11/24): ABB (ABBNY), American Financial (AFG), Arhaus (ARHS), Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF), Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 Fund (COWZ), Dow (DOW), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Linde (LIN), London Stock Exchange Group (LNSTY), VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund (MOAT), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Procter & Gamble (PG), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Phillips 66 (PSX), RenaissanceRe (RNR), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), Stellantis (STLA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Tenaris (TS), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG), Waste Management (WM), and Walmart (WMT). In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's edition, which covered the prospects of a Fed "pivot" and what it could mean for this market... Do you have a comment or question? As always, email us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "The 'pivot' (inflation data) so to speak doesn't include gas and groceries which seems to be skyrocketing every day. If someone said, '15% over the last year,' I'd say, 'a Month!' Especially with third-party sellers, you have to pay yearly to be in their service or pay even more. Even Target is starting a pay-per-year fee [model], no escape [from] another form of inflation... "Where do we get happy? The market wants lower interest [rates]. The ones that can save want it higher otherwise they are stuck again risking their money, especially if they don't read Stansberry's stuff. Thank you all more than you can imagine. Corey, Blessings..." – Subscriber Jeff B. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland March 12, 2024 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,342.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,284.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 1,173.5% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 886.5% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 776.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 617.7% Retirement Millionaire Doc BTC/USD Bitcoin 01/16/20 611.6% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade HSY Hershey 12/07/07 488.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 449.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter NVO Novo Nordisk 12/05/19 371.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula 2 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Wade 1 Extreme Value Ferris --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,722.5% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,346.2% Crypto Capital Wade POLYX/USD Polymesh 05/19/20 1,097.3% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 931.6% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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