A Crash Course on Commodities

Rick Rule on the Stansberry Investor Hour... A crash course on commodities... From nickel to uranium and more... Why Rick is putting together a shopping list... This morning's jobs report... The 'Fed is going to cut' trade is on... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Rick Rule on the Stansberry Investor Hour... A crash course on commodities... From nickel to uranium and more... Why Rick is putting together a shopping list... This morning's jobs report... The 'Fed is going to cut' trade is on... --------------------------------------------------------------- Editor's note: I (Corey McLaughlin) am writing the Friday Digest today. My friend and regular Friday essayist Dan Ferris is taking some well-deserved time off over the next week or so. You see, Dan has been busy putting the finishing touches on a lot of new research for The Ferris Report and Extreme Value subscribers. If you want to learn more about some of this research, right now you can check out [this free, brief presentation from Dan](. But hurry, you only have until tonight. Today, we're serving more of our "usual" weekday fare... starting with some details on our recent interview with commodities expert Rick Rule... --------------------------------------------------------------- 'I recently flew over those nickel operations in southern Sulawesi...' Dan and I were about 25 minutes into our most recent Stansberry Investor Hour interview with Rick Rule when he casually dropped this anecdote about nickel mines in a mountainous region of Indonesia... While I'm not best described as a bleeding heart, the environmental degradation that's occurring in southern Sulawesi is breathtaking, and it is not sustainable. So, my suspicion is that the rate of increase of [nickel] production in the [nearby] Philippines declines... I wonder how many other people are flying over mines in southern Sulawesi... or even know where it is? And then can they tell you what developments in the region mean for possible investments? Rick can. He is an expert on natural resources with decades of experience in the industry. He's the former president and CEO of Sprott U.S., a money-management firm focused on precious metals. Now, he's a self-described "loan shark," or debt investor. He has deep connections in the natural resources industry and can seemingly effortlessly see and explain the trends in the sector. From nickel to uranium, natural gas, and more... During our talk, Rick spoke about the global supply of nickel – used to make batteries, among other things – and other commodities that he feels are "roundly hated" and could be "priced well below the cost of production" over the next year, like platinum and palladium. But he also talked about trends in commodities like uranium and natural gas, which one way or another will play a critical role in how the world is powered in the decades ahead... Rick also shared a few ticker symbols of companies that he likes... why he's putting together a "shopping list" right now... and tips for investing and trading in what can be a volatile sector – but one that can deliver tremendous gains and bolster a well-diversified portfolio. You can [listen to or watch the whole interview here – for free](... Dan, who has known Rick for decades, is also particularly excited about the commodities sector right now. If you want to hear Dan's take on the commodity "hypercycle," [check out his free new presentation](. It's not long, less than 15 minutes. Plus, you'll learn how you can access a brand-new special report from Dan... how to claim $11,000 worth of free bonuses... and details on an investment approach that tripled the gains of the benchmark S&P 500 Index and recently delivered its first triple-digit gain in one year. [You can learn more here](. But again, you only have until tonight. And Extreme Value subscribers and Alliance members can find Dan's latest research [here](. Now, closer to home... This morning's jobs report from Uncle Sam was notable... The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February, up from 3.7% in January, to hit its highest mark since January 2022, when the rate was trending lower from a pandemic peak. The labor-force participation rate also remained the same at 62.5%. The unemployment rate has incrementally moved higher in the past year from a low of 3.4% in January 2023 and April 2023. The headline numbers, at least, suggest a labor market cooling down more than it already has. All of sudden, we're back on "Sahm rule watch"... As we said in the middle of 2023 – when the unemployment rate was beginning to inch higher – the Sahm rule is a highly reliable recession indicator. It's a measure of the change in the unemployment rate, and it has a perfect record of signaling recessions over the past 50 years. This indicator is named for Claudia Sahm, an economist and onetime employee at the Federal Reserve. Basically, the rule says that whenever the government's unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points off a cycle low, we're in a recession. Specifically, when the unemployment rate's three-month average measures 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous three-month average low of the past year, we're in a recession. I would consider the present cycle low to be the 3.5% three-month average from February 2023 to April 2023. So, with a few more months of a slightly higher unemployment rate (4% and 4.1% or more), you'll start to hear more people talking about the idea of a recession again – right when "everyone" thought we were past it. The latest Fed read... Perhaps this is why the Fed has been signaling that it's preparing to cut the federal-funds rate... well, in addition to the gigantic cost of financing Uncle Sam's $35 trillion debt and the debt wall that corporations and businesses are facing. The fed-funds rate is the Fed's suggested bank-lending rate range that filters through interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy. As we mentioned this week, on Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took questions from Congress for a good five hours in required semiannual testimony. On Wednesday, he essentially said the same things we've been hearing for months – that the fed-funds rate is likely at its peak. But on Thursday, Powell also told the Senate committee the Fed "can and will begin" to lower rates this year. It sounded to me like he might have been sent a copy of today's jobs report a day early. Cutting rates tends to juice economic activity... meaning high inflation isn't the primary concern for the Fed anymore in its "stable prices and maximum employment" congressional dual-mandate balance. A majority of fed-funds futures traders are betting on a first cut happening at the Fed's June meeting. It seems off the table for its meeting in March, but there's also a meeting in May. The 'Fed is going to cut' trade has been gaining steam... Bond yields have been slightly lower recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has drifted lower, closer to 4%, from its February highs around 4.3%. Meanwhile, the major U.S. indexes have been churning higher lately, though today the benchmark S&P 500 was slightly lower, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was off 1%. (The behavior could be an early preview of more lethargy to come if the economy shows more weakness in the weeks or months ahead.) The gold price is also moving up. As we said [on Wednesday]( inflation protection is "in" again. The spot price in dollars continued to climb as high as $2,180 today, a gain of 6% since the start of the month. And the relative value of the dollar is down. Notably, the U.S. Dollar Index ("DXY") broke below its 200-day moving average on Wednesday, for the first time since January. Lastly, the union... Our presumption [in yesterday's edition]( about how the State of the Union would be described in last night's address was correct. "Strong and getting stronger," President Joe Biden said. On the economic policy front, as we expected, he talked about taxing the wealthy... and raising the minimum corporate income-tax rate to "at least 21%." Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump's promised live "play by play" of the speech didn't materialize as he hoped. His Truth Social platform crashed around the start of Biden's speech, and posts slowly began showing closer to the end of the address. So it goes. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [Make This Election Money Move NOW]( This could be the SINGLE most important month of the presidential-election year, but NOT for the reasons you might think. Because while most Americans will be focused on the elections and polling data... they'll be completely blindsided by a massive election surprise headed straight for U.S. stocks, according to Marc Chaikin – which is why he's urging you to make ONE critical move with your money. [Full details here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Important: Read This BEFORE Bitcoin Hits New Highs]( Bitcoin is already up 300% since its 2022 lows, driven by a wave of new institutional buying. But according to one of America's leading crypto experts, this is just the start of a much bigger shift playing out right now. It's critical you learn more today... BEFORE this impacts your money and your retirement. [Here's everything you need to know](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 3/7/24): ABB (ABBNY), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), A.O. Smith (AOS), Arhaus (ARHS), ASML (ASML), Broadcom (AVGO), American Express (AXP), AutoZone (AZO), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Brown & Brown (BRO), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Costco Wholesale (COST), Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 Fund (COWZ), Copart (CPRT), Commvault Systems (CVLT), Dimensional International Small Cap Value Fund (DISV), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Franklin FTSE Japan Fund (FLJP), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), W.W. Grainger (GWW), ICON (ICLR), IQVIA (IQV), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), KraneShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index Fund (KEMX), Lennar (LEN), Linde (LIN), VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund (MOAT), Micron Technology (MU), Neuberger Berman Next Generation Connectivity Fund (NBXG), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Parker-Hannifin (PH), PulteGroup (PHM), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Phillips 66 (PSX), Construction Partners (ROAD), Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology Fund (RSPT), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), VanEck Semiconductor Fund (SMH), Spotify Technology (SPOT), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO), Stellantis (STLA), Stryker (SYK), Cambria Shareholder Yield Fund (SYLD), TFI International (TFII), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Tenaris (TS), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Veralto (VLTO), and Vanguard S&P 500 Fund (VOO). In today's mailbag, a thought about how economic data – and economists' thoughts about it – doesn't square with how people feel about it... and another answer to the question about what constitutes a sandwich... Do you have a comment or question? As always, email us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Corey, I am perplexed when otherwise smart people equate inflation with a 'hot' or 'robust' economy. Just because it takes more dollars to buy a loaf of bread (inflation) does not mean that the economy is strong. Does it? People need bread. They eat it. They prefer not to starve. The same could be said for a gallon of gasoline which people must buy in order to get to work or go to the store to buy expensive bread. "The fact people must pay more for these essential things does not automatically mean that they have extra money to spend – due to a hot economy. My homeowner's insurance went up 40% this year. I'll have to pay it because I have a mortgage. That's inflation [and] my economy is no better than it was a year ago when my insurance was cheaper and, in fact, my discretionary spending will be forced to go down because my mandatory spending was forced up. I think we're headed for stagflation." – Stansberry Alliance member Darrell W. "Corey, "In response to [Marthe C]( and my 2 cents: EVERY THING ON ITPoem by Shel Silverstein I asked for a hot dog With everything on it, And that was my big mistake, 'Cause it came with a parrot, A bee in a bonnet, A wristwatch, a wrench, and a rake. It came with a goldfish, A flag, and a fiddle, A frog, and a front porch swing, And a mouse in a mask — That's the last time I ask For a hot dog with everything. "If there's anything on or between bread, or anything (lettuce, for low carbers, for example) that you (can) hold with your hands, then, it is a sandwich... to me!" – Subscriber Rich S. Corey McLaughlin comment: Thanks, Rich. That's a nice way to end the week. Bon appétit. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland March 8, 2024 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,351.1% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,299.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 1,173.5% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 887.0% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 768.9% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 613.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc BTC/USD Bitcoin 01/16/20 599.6% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade HSY Hershey 12/07/07 472.5% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 446.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter NVO Novo Nordisk 12/05/19 387.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 2 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Wade 1 Extreme Value Ferris --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,687.5% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,341.4% Crypto Capital Wade POLYX/USD Polymesh 05/19/20 1,080.7% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 937.0% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice. © 2024 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or [stansberryresearch.com](. Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.