Hello, Gold

Powell said cuts are probably coming (again)... Status quo on the jobs market... Inflation protection is 'in' again... Gold is breaking out... Patience pays... We didn't lose faith... Plenty of gold recommendations... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Powell said cuts are probably coming (again)... Status quo on the jobs market... Inflation protection is 'in' again... Gold is breaking out... Patience pays... We didn't lose faith... Plenty of gold recommendations... --------------------------------------------------------------- First up today, the Fed's lead '[horse]( hath spoken again... For nearly three hours today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sat in front of the House Financial Services Committee as part of required semiannual testimony... He faced questions on ongoing regulatory-policy proposals for banks, the Basel III "endgame," energy policy, and the war in Ukraine... And all that was only after a pair of five-minute opening soliloquies of political talking points from Republican committee chair Patrick McHenry and Democrat ranking member Maxine Waters. I (Corey McLaughlin) will get right to the practical matters for short-term market direction, which Powell shared when he was finally offered the chance to speak. Reading from a prepared statement about the economy and monetary policy moving ahead, he said the same things you should already know if you've been reading the Digest. Powell again reiterated [what he said in December]( that the Fed believes its policy rate is "likely at its peak for this tightening cycle." That's music to many investors' ears. But he also couched that statement by not putting a timetable on anything. Powell said... If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured. Reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of progress we have seen in inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2%. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In the end, he said the Fed will keep looking at data and repeated what he said after the central bank's last policy meeting [in January]( The Fed is looking for greater "confidence" that the pace of inflation is en route to a 2% annual rate (with more monthly numbers that suggest so) before it lowers its benchmark bank-lending rate. Today, Powell said in response to a question from McHenry... We have some confidence in that... We want to see a little bit more data. Hopefully, if you've been following along with us [since December]( none of this comes as a surprise. We've been saying that rate cuts weren't likely to happen as quickly and at such a scale that it appeared many investors were anticipating. That's in part because of "sticky" high housing prices and a surge in freight costs associated with the war in the Middle East. The thing is, now the market has appeared to have come around to this idea in the past few months, signaled by bond yields rising since December. And investors also appeared to take Powell's testimony in stride today. The major U.S. indexes rose. The benchmark S&P 500 was 0.5% higher... And yields fell slightly across most durations today, meaning bond prices were up as well. That may have had something to do with today's jobs data... Just before Powell sat for questions, a pair of notable reads on the U.S. labor market came out that could be described as mixed, but in line with a longer-term trend of a "loosening" jobs market since 2022. This suggests the Fed could cut rates later this year, but not do it as imminently as its policy next meeting later this month, or even the next one on April 31 to May 1, either. In other words, the idea of a continued "Fed pause" – eventually ending in a cut – still has legs. February employment data from payroll company ADP shows that private companies added 140,000 new workers. That's slightly up from January's 110,000, yet the numbers remain below a one-year average of around 200,000 hires per month. Also, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job openings in the U.S. in January was 8.9 million. That was the same as December 2023's "revised" number but fits with a longer-term trend of declines since a peak of 12 million openings in March 2022. And other measures of the labor market are showing signs of weakness. The quits rate, a measure of workers who voluntarily left their jobs, measured 3.39 million in January... the lowest amount in three years. A decline in voluntary job leavers typically suggests that workers are less confident in their ability to find new jobs after quitting. These numbers don't show a cratering labor market, but they are showing one that's not as "hot" as it was during peak pandemic stimulus times. Still, inflation pressures remain, too. The pace of pay increases, according to ADP, is still notable (5.1% for job stayers and 7.6% for job changers in February). That's good for everyday people, of course, but speaks to higher costs for businesses and the idea of a "wage-price spiral." In all, this fresh employment data should have little impact on Fed policy – until it is put in the context of more of it in the months ahead, at least. Fed officials have continued to use the labor market's sustained strength as a reason to delay its first rate cut. Looking forward, the government's monthly employment report will come out Friday morning. Wall Street is expecting the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.7% with annual wage growth slowing to 4.4%, down a tick from 4.5% in January. Fed-funds futures traders are betting with nearly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut coming at the central bank's June meeting, and two to three more cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. In the meantime, though, certain asset classes are benefiting from the idea of any kind of interest-rate cut. Inflation protection is 'in' again... When the world's most powerful central bank is considering cutting interest rates... and while that bank's associated federal government is adding $1 trillion to the national debt every 100 days or so, inflation protection sounds more appealing again. And it should. We've spilled enough ink on what some refer to as "digital gold" – bitcoin – lately. I do think this environment has helped fuel bitcoin's spectacular rally over the past few months. In addition to the dozen or so bitcoin ETFs being green-lit and more than $50 billion of institutional money pouring into the asset class through these funds and boosting demand, bitcoin's inflation-hedge characteristics might sound more appealing ahead of its "halving" next month. Today, bitcoin reclaimed about half of yesterday's 10% drop and is trading around $67,000, just under its all-time high. Hold on for volatility in cryptos, as we said, in this asset class that is still relatively young and small when it comes to market cap. But how about the original inflation hedge? For centuries, it has been considered a store of value. It's the last "hard" currency the U.S. has known. And it's something you can touch and hold in your hands. Hello, gold. It looks like your time again... With the Fed signaling rate cuts that might actually happen, gold's price appears to be breaking out. It made a new all-time high earlier this week, and it traded 1% higher again today to continue a 5% burst over the past week. This has put the price of gold above the $2,100 mark it hadn't been able to eclipse in the past few years... despite getting close four times... Gold bulls might be saying "finally"... Many have observed that the past few years have been frustrating for gold. Through all the developments in the world and persistently higher inflation, some expected gold – a "chaos hedge," as we like to say – to be much higher... This age-old inflation protection set all-time highs just above $2,000 in March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic panic... It reached that point again in early 2022 when the war in Ukraine broke out... And then it returned to that level in the first half of 2023 when a lot of buying from central banks, primarily in emerging markets, boosted its price. The argument has been... given all that chaos, shouldn't it have kept moving up? Well, for folks with exposure to gold in their portfolios, patience pays... In [the February issue of Retirement Millionaire]( editor Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig recommended a gold stock and said it was time to get ahead of a potential move lower in interest rates. Here's more from Doc... We've long preached that everyone needs to own some gold. You could be 25 years old and just starting out in your investing career... or 10 years into retirement. Every investor needs to own this precious metal. The reasons are simple... Gold is a physical asset and has been a store of value for thousands of years. Gold coins were minted for commerce beginning around 550 B.C. No matter what happens to the economy – even if banks collapse and our economic structure spirals into oblivion – gold will always have value. Plus, the supply of gold is limited. You can't just create more gold any time you feel like it. And even in today's era of money-printing, central banks still keep huge gold reserves. Having gold in the bank makes for a credible currency. This makes gold the ultimate "chaos hedge." When things get rocky in the economy or stock market, folks turn to gold as a safe haven. It has historically held its value across borders, cultures, and political systems... in peacetime and in war. As Doc explained, what really drives the price of gold is the currency it's valued in. When the dollar is strong and getting stronger in relation to other currencies – as it was in 2022 and 2023 with interest rates in the U.S. rising – the price of gold goes down. And when the dollar weakens (associated with interest-rate cuts), the price of gold goes up... The relationship is clear as day, he said... Check out this comparison of gold's price (in green) just over the past two years in comparison to the U.S. Dollar Index ("DXY"), which measures the dollar against other major world currencies... In [a special report published in January]( True Wealth editor Brett Eversole also shared a comprehensive look at gold and its price history... why he expected the precious metal to soar soon as well... and his top gold investment. That same month, Dan Ferris [wrote in The Ferris Report]( about why gold (and silver) should be a part of a well-diversified portfolio and offered up a pair of recommendations. In short, we didn't lose faith... On December 13, the Fed first overtly signaled rate cuts could be coming in 2024. In [that day's Digest]( I cited the work of the great John Doody, longtime editor of the Gold Stock Analyst newsletter. As we shared, he wrote in his December issue... The best time to buy gold and gold stocks is right before the Federal Reserve shifts to a "loose" monetary policy. That's when the Fed takes its foot off the "economic brakes" and hits the gas pedal... meaning it lowers interest rates to avoid a looming recession. John thought the Fed would be easing up on its run of tight monetary soon, he said, and that the previous highs for gold around $2,000 the past few years would become the price "floor for the years ahead." As we put it... If or when the Fed's rate policy turns, John explains, history shows gold has achieved 4 times the return of U.S. stocks. Even better, his Gold Stock Analyst Top 10 stocks returned 17 times higher than the S&P 500's gains in similar Fed "easing" periods since 2001. You can consider this call a parting gift from John. As his subscribers know, he retired from day-to-day duties with Gold Stock Analyst [in January](. He has handed over the reins to his longtime analyst Garrett Goggin, who is keeping the best-in-class precious metals research going. In the February issue of Gold Stock Analyst, for example, Garrett also explains why gold isn't just an inflation hedge, but why the right gold stocks can actually be considered "value investments" today after a tough few years. Gold Stock Analyst subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find the latest issue [here]( complete with a review of all of the open recommendations in the model portfolio right now. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [Here's What You Missed Last Week]( Marc Chaikin has traded through 13 presidential elections during his 50 years on Wall Street. Today, he's stepping forward to warn of a critical election-year event with a 90% chance of hitting U.S. stocks in the days following Super Tuesday. See exactly what's coming... and exactly what to do with your money, [right here]( (includes two free recommendations). --------------------------------------------------------------- ['I've Never Seen Anything Like THIS in My 20 Years as an Analyst']( For 21 years, Dan Ferris has helped readers navigate every market scenario you can imagine: the financial crisis of 2008... the COVID-19 crash of 2020... the inflation crisis of 2022 – the worst year for stocks in more than a decade – and even the AI mania of 2023. But he says what's coming in 2024 is unlike anything he has ever seen before, which is why he just put together a short new update for you. [Watch here before March 8](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 3/5/24): AbbVie (ABBV), AutoZone (AZO), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Costco Wholesale (COST), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Franklin FTSE Japan Fund (FLJP), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), ICON (ICLR), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Linde (LIN), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Stellantis (STLA), Tenaris (TS), ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG), Veralto (VLTO), Viper Energy (VNOM), and Walmart (WMT). In today's mailbag, feedback on [yesterday's Digest]( – which covered the "worst in show" in the market today... and we have another opinion on what constitutes a sandwich. Keep your notes coming, as always, to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Corey, very good Digest today. You are the best!" – Subscriber Frank S. Corey McLaughlin comment: Hi Frank, thanks for the note. I need to hear that more often! Glad you enjoyed yesterday's edition. "Hamburger is a sandwich. Hot dog is not a sandwich... Rationale: Hamburgers can be dressed up or down, hot dogs come with minimal extras. It takes two ballpark hotdogs to make the equivalent of one all-the-way hamburger." – Subscriber Marthe C. All the best, Corey McLaughlin with Tyler Jarman Baltimore, Maryland March 6, 2024 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,339.0% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,278.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 1,173.5% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 881.6% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 767.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 610.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc BTC/USD Bitcoin 01/16/20 563.1% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade HSY Hershey 12/07/07 460.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 443.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TT Trane Technologies 04/12/18 356.7% Retirement Millionaire Doc Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Wade 1 Extreme Value Ferris --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,581.2% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,283.8% Crypto Capital Wade POLYX/USD Polymesh 05/19/20 1,066.3% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 893.9% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You're receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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