More New Highs... Then There's the Details

A ripping broad rally in stocks... Don't go all in, though... What real estate strength might mean... The bull and bear cases... Our founder Porter Stansberry's outlook for 2024 – and more... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] A ripping broad rally in stocks... Don't go all in, though... What real estate strength might mean... The bull and bear cases... Our founder Porter Stansberry's outlook for 2024 – and more... --------------------------------------------------------------- The major U.S. indexes have kept chugging higher... Even with a 1.5% sell-off this afternoon – "profit taking," some Wall Streeters say – the benchmark S&P 500 Index closed today within 2% of a new all-time high... The Dow Jones Industrial Average already reached new heights last week... The small-cap Russell 2000 Index, down more than 2% today, is still up roughly 20% since its most recent low in October... and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is up 17% in the same period... All of a sudden, even the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has recently hit a new 52-week high. As our colleague Chris Igou [wrote to his DailyWealth Trader subscribers today](... One healthy month is starting to look like the start of a bigger move. That's because the equal-weight index just hit a 52-week high last week... This is a quick turnaround from October, where the majority of stocks were falling. New highs for the equal-weight S&P 500 show that this rally has not been powered exclusively by the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks. It's broader. As [I wrote yesterday]( small caps have also been outperforming, which is historically what happens at the end of a bear market. Not only that, but according to Chris, history suggests "this move likely has legs, too." He analyzed every time the equal-weight index hit a new 52-week high since 1989... Stocks rose an average of 5.4% over six months and 10.1% over the following year. As Chris wrote... What we want to highlight is that this is a bullish event for today's bull market. The breakout in breadth – the number of stocks participating in the rally – is a good sign. So, even with a brief cooldown today in the major U.S. indexes, momentum still favors the bulls. Enjoy it. But perhaps don't plunge all the way in. This rally could set the stage for some disappointment... As we've reported recently, recent market action appears to reflect an expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark bank-lending rate in early 2024. This could happen if the pace of inflation keeps easing... or price trends turn toward deflation... or the unemployment rate rises... or anything else happens that might cause the Fed to lower the "cost of money." But what if it doesn't? The market's rally appears to be based on Fed projections – which are typically wrong. And to be fair, all the central bankers have done is write down that they're anticipating cutting rates in 2024, not that they definitely will. [In yesterday's edition]( I noted that various underlings of Fed Chair Jerome Powell have been sending messages that investors are misguided if they think cuts are coming early next year... Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said yesterday he was "confused" by the market's reaction to the Fed's decision and Powell's press conference last week. John Williams of the New York Fed said in a Friday interview with CNBC that the central bank isn't "really talking about rate cuts right now." Fed officials usually don't do this kind of "clarification tour" unless they are trying to send an updated message – and this one might be for good reason. As our colleague Mike Barrett [wrote today]( in his Select Value Opportunities advisory, he agrees with Williams. Mike agrees primarily because of what's going on in the residential real estate market right now. Continued strength could prevent "official" inflation numbers from getting close to the Fed's 2% annual goal (and thus not give the central bank a good reason to cut rates). 'Sticky' inflation in real estate... As Mike wrote... Stuart Miller, executive chairman and co-CEO of one of the nation's largest homebuilders, Lennar (LEN), also expressed skepticism about an early 2024 rate cut during the company's fiscal 2023 fourth-quarter call on December 15. Here's why... While the overall [consumer price index ("CPI")] reading continues to decline, the Housing subindex didn't budge for November... And it's still well above the 3.1% headline figure, at 5.2%. In other words, despite one of the most aggressive rate-hike campaigns in Fed history – raising the fed-funds rate from between zero and 0.25% in January 2022 to between 5.25% and 5.5% by July 2023 – inflation remains a problem in the housing sector. Many experts predicted that average home prices would decline nationally by 10% to 15% as interest rates increased sharply, according to Matt Schoeppner, senior economist at U.S. Bank. But the low point thus far is only about 6.8%. As Schoeppner sees it, "Even as the Fed tries to slow down housing demand to temper inflation, the result of today's limited supply of available housing is that we may not see a significant deterioration in home values." Multiple real estate industry experts agree, as Mike continued... Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, estimates that even if the number of homes for sale were to go up significantly, eager homebuyers would quickly snap them up. Following last week's November CPI report, Fan-Yu Kuo, an economist with the National Association of Home Builders, estimated that rising shelter costs accounted for nearly 70% of the total increase in noncore prices tracked by the [Bureau of Labor Statistics]. (These exclude food and energy costs.) That means additional improvements in headline inflation will be nearly impossible without reductions in housing inflation. And for now, this looks unlikely. Real estate is local, of course, but prices for homes are still rising enough generally. Listing site Redfin reported that the median U.S. home sale price was up by 3.7% in November, the largest increase in more than a year. And, as Mike noted, that was before the recent plunge in the 10-year Treasury yield... This should also sink mortgage rates, which could actually send more buyers back into the market and push prices – and housing inflation – higher. The 10-year yield continued to fall today, below 3.9%. A tempered outlook... As Mike concluded, market expectations for multiple rate cuts sooner than later are dynamic and perhaps misguided. It's one big reason why he's tempering his outlook for 2024... The bottom line is, lower interest rates can't materialize without a drop in housing inflation... despite stock and bond investors' strong convictions to the contrary. And right now, that seems even more improbable than it did before the Fed's December 13 meeting. This is the conundrum tempering our outlook for stocks in 2024. If the decline in interest rates, which is already baked into stock and bond prices, doesn't happen as expected, then equity prices will likely fall and bond yields will rise. Mike continues to believe that "stock prices can eventually grind higher in 2024 [but] a temporary pullback isn't out of the question." I would say it's wise to keep an eye on inflation – as well as unemployment data – ahead of the Fed's next meeting on January 30 and 31. The bull case for the shorter term... If the market gives up on the idea of rate cuts coming within a month or two, stocks could indeed pull back. But then again, this would mean the Fed "pause" remaining in place... which would be bullish for stocks over a longer time horizon. As [I outlined in our November 7 edition]( a Fed "pause" – which we are seeing now – has historically been very good for stock prices. On average, the S&P 500 rises 20% in the year following the start of a pause. (That would be the 12 months starting in July 2023 based on when the current pause began.) It's when the Fed starts to cut rates that [fortunes typically turn to the downside]( because it means things are going wrong with the economy. Here's the good news for the moment: Either scenario we're talking about today – if the market is right about the Fed or even if it's slightly wrong – would likely be "good news" for stocks in the shorter term. The bear case in the longer term... There are still signs of a weakening jobs market, despite November's jobs report in which the unemployment rate dipped to 3.7%. If the labor market weakens more, and the health of more American consumers with it, the Fed will indeed be looking to cut rates to juice the economy... The bond market is increasingly expecting this, with short-term yields falling in the past few weeks as well. But rate cuts would likely lead to a new wave of consequences. First, stocks generally sell off, and then there would be the knock-on effects. That's because there is a good argument to make that the inflation "fight" isn't over, despite what enough investors appear to be believing in the past few weeks. As our colleague and Stansberry's Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase [wrote last month](... Don't be fooled by a Santa Claus rally in the stock market to close out the year. The financial year of reckoning is coming in 2024. Higher inflation, and therefore higher interest rates, are here to stay. We aren't going back to near-zero interest rates again. Most folks haven't fully grasped this new reality. In this new reality, the math no longer works. We have far too much debt to afford today's higher interest rates. Much of this debt simply cannot and will not be repaid. The only way to get rid of it is through bankruptcy. All of the things you'd expect to see before a recession and credit crisis are already happening. Corporate profits have shrunk over the past three quarters. Delinquencies, defaults, and bankruptcies are rising... and rising at the fastest pace since the last financial crisis. Every single recession indicator is screaming the same thing... We're headed for a recession. There's no avoiding it. And as he said, the stock market doesn't bottom before recessions. It always bottoms during or after recessions. One more thing before we go... Our founder Porter Stansberry is concerned about what the economy is due for in 2024, too. He just shared his outlook with Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig in the special Stansberry Research-only broadcast that we talked about yesterday. [In this exclusive interview]( Porter and Doc talked about a lot... including where Porter has been these past few years... why he started the boutique investment research firm Porter & Co. in 2022... and why he's back as chairman and CEO of our parent company now. Porter also detailed why he sees a crisis brewing in 2024 that will be at 2007 or 2008 levels... and how he suggests folks can prepare today to protect themselves "from the chaos" he sees coming – or even grow their wealth amid the mess – by focusing on four "pillars" in the market. If you're interested in hearing the details at all, don't hesitate to watch or listen to this free interview. In order to keep the broadcast private and exclusive to Stansberry Research readers, the video will only be online until 10 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow morning. [Click here now to access this limited-time-only event](. (And if you're a Stansberry Alliance member, make sure to check your inbox for your special access link.) --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [LAST CHANCE: Porter Stansberry's Critical Announcement to Stansberry Research]( Our founder predicted many of the greatest financial scandals of the past two decades. Now, Porter is back in an exclusive new tell-all to reveal what he says could be the most important discovery of his career – one that could be transformational for you and your family's wealth if – and only if – you are willing to accept it. [Click here to see Porter's new update before it's pulled offline](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Calm Before the 2024 Gold Storm?]( A number of strange events are continuing to play out across the country, including delinquencies on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards all trending higher... prices (and interest rates) still crippling businesses and citizens alike... and a weakening U.S. dollar with soaring government debt. Meanwhile, gold has quietly soared... But we may still be in the early stages of a new gold mania – the calm before the storm. [Here's the No. 1 gold play for 2024](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 12/19/23): ABB (ABBNY), Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), A.O. Smith (AOS), American Express (AXP), Salesforce (CRM), Commvault Systems (CVLT), CyberArk Software (CYBR), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), Expedia (EXPE), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Fidelity National Financial (FNF), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), ICON (ICLR), iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Fund (IJR), Intel (INTC), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Iron Mountain (IRM), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Kinross Gold (KGC), NVR (NVR), Oshkosh (OSK), UiPath (PATH), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Phillips 66 (PSX), ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD), Qualys (QLYS), Ryder System (R), Rithm Capital (RITM), Construction Partners (ROAD), Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology Fund (RSPT), SentinelOne (S), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO), StoneCo (STNE), Cambria Shareholder Yield Fund (SYLD), Trane Technologies (TT), Twilio (TWLO), Textron (TXT), and Vanguard S&P 500 Fund (VOO). In today's mailbag, feedback on [Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry's presentation with Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig](... and a response to a piece of mail in yesterday's edition... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "I'm a Stansberry Alliance member. It was a big decision to make and I'm glad I did. The product suite has grown. As it has, I still read most of everything and pay attention to the respective portfolios. I've done okay and made good gains in some areas, but now I'm needing to focus on areas that resonate with me. Areas that I understand more fully. I let the analysts do all the hard work and I follow what I can. "I've listened to many opportunities to add to my toolbox in special presentations over the years. I have not added any. After listening to today's presentation by Porter and Doc, I know the offer is first-rate, but I cannot take advantage of it. I learned a lot and hope to see synergies between Stansberry Research and Porter and Co. "Funny enough the core pillars are the areas I pay closest attention to... Oh and thanks for the Hershey recommendation. It's the best performer in my IRA! I hope to see more of Porter's writing show up, I read his books and Friday Digests." – Stansberry Alliance member Jeffrey G. "I was amused to see that your correspondent, subscriber John M. wrote: How did we go from our founding fathers who said 'Neither a borrower or a lender be...' I'm curious as to which he thinks was a Founding Father, William Shakespeare or Polonius. As you are undoubtedly aware, the line 'Neither a borrower nor a lender be' appears in Act I, Scene 3 of William Shakespeare's Hamlet. The quote is spoken by Polonius, Ophelia's father, and King Claudius' chief minister. Mr. John M. could correctly attribute this to either the character or the author but not to a Founding Father. Perhaps, he thought it was something Benjamin Franklin said as it certainly sounds like something he would have said. Other than that amusing side note, I do agree with the point that subscriber John M. was making." – Subscriber Lowell L. Corey McLaughlin comment: Thanks, Lowell. We're amused by your response. My editor and I discussed the subject yesterday before publishing. Maybe we should have added a note attributing the quote to Polonius... or the spirit of Ben Franklin. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland December 20, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,282.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,180.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 847.9% Extreme Value Ferris wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 771.1% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 635.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 541.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 444.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 417.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BTC/USD Bitcoin 01/16/20 372.3% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade PANW Palo Alto Networks 04/16/20 335.1% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 3 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel/Wade 2 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 1,701.2% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,100.2% Crypto Capital Wade POLYX/USD Polymesh 05/19/20 1,056.1% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,025.9% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 826.3% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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