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The Next Financial Catastrophe Is Just Beginning

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Sun, Nov 26, 2023 01:40 PM

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In today's Masters Series, adapted from the September and October issues of Stansberry's Credit Oppo

In today's Masters Series, adapted from the September and October issues of Stansberry's Credit Opportunities, Mike explains why today's market conditions signal a recession is inevitable... talks about how we're in the early stages of a credit crisis as well... and details how investors can capitalize on this rampant market chaos... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Master Series] Editor's note: Don't let recession fears prevent you from profiting... With out-of-control inflation, heightened geopolitical conflict, and the banking crisis weighing on the economy, [many investors are hiding their money on the sidelines in anticipation of a deep recession](. But according to Stansberry's Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase, this economic calamity will lead to some of the cheapest corporate bonds you've likely ever seen... That's why Mike stresses it's critical for investors to start exploring the credit market right now in order to take advantage of this unique setup. In today's Masters Series, adapted from the September and October issues of Stansberry's Credit Opportunities, Mike explains why today's market conditions signal a recession is inevitable... talks about how we're in the early stages of a credit crisis as well... and details how investors can capitalize on this rampant market chaos... --------------------------------------------------------------- The Next Financial Catastrophe Is Just Beginning By Mike DiBiase, editor, Stansberry's Credit Opportunities Every recession indicator is flashing a warning today... You've heard of most of them. An inverted yield curve... Rapidly rising interest rates... Tightening credit... And a falling need for temporary help and rising unemployment. But there's one you may not have heard of. I'm talking about falling recreational-vehicle ("RV") sales. RV sales are down 16% through September. That follows a sales decline of 18% last year. Falling RV sales in two consecutive years have preceded the last three recessions. These are big-ticket items that people buy with disposable income. So you see sales declines in these types of items first. No matter how hard Wall Street and the financial media wish for a "soft landing," it doesn't change the reality... We're not going to avoid a painful recession. The next credit crisis has already begun. It is slowly unfolding... --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Link: # [Must-See: Subscriber's Viral Holiday Video]( Have you seen this Thanksgiving message from one of your fellow readers yet? He retired early thanks to ONE investing idea that doesn't involve stocks... options... or cryptocurrencies. And he's kept on enjoying retirement – worry-free – right through all of the volatility of the past year. The secret? A simple strategy for seeing double-digit annual income... AND triple-digit capital gains... with legal protections (even in an economic crisis). [Click here for his new holiday message](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Another 50 U.S. companies went belly up in October. That brings the total to 561 this year. That's just two shy of the 563 that went bankrupt through September 2020 when the entire economy was shut down. The biggest name was Rite Aid. The drugstore chain hasn't been able to turn a profit since 2018 and finally succumbed to its debt load. Credit is now tighter today than at any point since 2009, when we were in the midst of the great financial crisis (excluding a brief period following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic). The banking crisis isn't over. Banks are sitting on more than half a trillion dollars' worth of unrealized losses on their balance sheets for loans that have plunged in value. Banks can't afford to sell those assets since they'd have to realize the losses on their income statements if they did. That means they have less capital to make new loans. It's part of the reason why bank credit (the dollar value of all bank loans) is contracting for the first time since 2011. This is a big deal. According to investment bank Goldman Sachs, nearly $2 trillion of corporate debt is coming due over the next two years. Without access to new loans, many "zombies" (companies that can't afford their debt) are finally collapsing. Credit crises can take a long time to play out. The current credit crisis is just in its infancy. You can see this by looking at what's known as the high-yield credit spread. It's the difference between the average yield of high-yield ("junk") corporate bonds and similar-duration U.S. Treasurys. The high-yield spread has averaged around 550 basis points ("bps") over the past 25 years. (A basis point is one-hundredth of one percent.) As you can see in the next chart, the high-yield spread soars above 1,000 bps during recessions (highlighted in gray)... Today's low spread means we aren't seeing any real fear in the bond market... yet. But it's coming. Stress continues to build in the economy as households and businesses digest higher costs and interest rates. Credit will continue to tighten and bankruptcies will soar. Much more pain lies ahead. Fear will soon grip the market. And even safe bonds will go on deep discount. That may sound gloomy, but it will create some of the best bond opportunities in our lifetime as it unfolds. We're not there yet. But we're inching closer every month. Regards, Mike DiBiase --------------------------------------------------------------- Editor's note: This credit crisis will be brutal for investors who aren't paying attention, but you don't have to be a victim of this ongoing mayhem. Mike says we're still in the early stages of this cycle. And this crisis is one of the best setups he has seen... Mike believes this crisis will open the door for myriad buying opportunities with huge upside potential – with gains that have legal protections – for investors who start preparing right now. [Learn more here](... --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Link: # [Regime Change at the Federal Reserve?]( The Fed just began the rollout of a new technology that will "shake the U.S. financial system." It'll likely go down in history as the biggest change to money since Western Union launched its "lightning lines" in the early days of the telegraph. [Here's everything you need to know (including three steps to take to profit)](. --------------------------------------------------------------- You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice. © 2023 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or [stansberryresearch.com](. Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.

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